ARMENIAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SINKS IN Q4
World Markets Research Centre
Dec 18 2008
The newest confidence survey by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA)
signals weakening sentiment among the country's producers. ARKA
News reports that the economic performance indicator, which measures
overall confidence on a 100-point scale, in the fourth quarter of the
year measured 40.7, falling by a fourth in annual comparison and by
around 38% from the third quarter of 2008. Meanwhile, the business
sentiment indicator slid by some 12% year-on-year (y/y) and 16%
quarter-on-quarter (q/q), standing at 41.5 in the fourth quarter. Only
the composite consumer confidence index managed to avoid an annual
fall, rising by a marginal rate of 0.3% y/y, but also this indicator
fell from the third quarter, its level of 48.7 marking a decrease of
5.6% q/q. The CBA has conducted quarterly confidence surveys since
2005. Over 800 industrial, construction and service companies and
nearly 1,900 households were surveyed.
Significance:While consumer confidence remained virtually stable
in annual comparison, all components of the survey signal weakening
sentiment. Moreover, the values of all three components stand below
the critical 50-point mark, signalling negative sentiment. The newest
official data put Armenian GDP growth in January-October 2008 at 9.2%
y/y (see Armenia: 24 November 2008: ). After growing at double-digit
rates for the past several years, the Armenian economy finally looks
set to cool, and the official growth projection of over 9% for 2009
seems overly optimistic to us, while we do not see recession likely
in Armenia as domestic demand, still rising from a relatively low
base, should still remain strong enough to support growth at positive
rates. The global financial crisis will not have any notable direct
impact on Armenia, due to the still-undeveloped and relatively isolated
nature of its financial sector. However, indirect negative effects
from the international crisis will likely be felt as moderating
investment and current transfer inflows, while the country's already
meagre export prospects have also weakened further.
REMITTANCES TO ARMENIA WILL DECREASE BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC
Dec 18, 2008
The negative consequences of the global economic crisis will affect
the socioeconimic state of Armenia first of all due to a growth in
raw material prices, the RA deputy minister of finance Vardan Aramian
stated during an international TV bridge organized at Novosti-Armenia
information center on December 18. He added that another consequence
of the crisis will be a decline in prices of goods and services in the
world, as a result of which Armenia's exports will suffer. And finally,
according to V. Aramian, the crisis will be dangerous for Armenian
people because remittances from abroad will considerably decrease.
In the opinion of Ukrainian economist Oleg Ustenko, the global economic
crisis will cause positive changes as well, the most essential of
which is that the economic imbalance among CIS member states will
decline. The negative consequences of the crisis in these counrtries
will especially affect the banking systems. In the words of O. Ustenko,
the state should first of all protect tax payers, vulnerable groups
The deputy minister of economy of Moldova Yuri Muntian said that the
policy of liberalization of economy adopted by the government will play
a great role in withstanding the economic crisis in their country. The
head of the Social Policy Center of the Institute of Economics of the
Russian Academy of Sciences Yevgeni Gontmakher announced that with the
aim of reducing the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia, a
decision was made not to take back the apartments from those who have
received mortgage loans, until they pay for their apartments. However,
according to him, a considerable growth of unemployment is inevitable
in any case.
EXPORTS FROM ARMENIA GROW BY 0.9%, IMPORTS INTO COUNTRY
Dec 18, 2008
In January-October 2008 the foreign trade of Armenia amounted to 1
trillion 381.8 bln drams or 4 billion 520.4 million USD, including
exports of 287.7 bln drams or 941.2 mln USD and imports of 1 trillion
94.1 bln drams or 3 bln 579.2 mln USD. The foreign trade balance was
negative by 806.4 bln drams (2 bln 638 mln USD), the same balance
without goods received as humanitarian aid was negative by 789.6 bln
drams (2 bln 583.1 mln USD).
According to the RA National Statistical Service, exports grew by 0.9%,
imports by 42.8% in January-October 2008 on the same period of 2007.
Dec 19, 2008
YEREVAN, DECEMBER 19, NOYAN TAPAN. Last week the overall assets of
the Armenian banking system grew by 16.2 billion drams and made 1
trillion drams (about 3 bln 243.5 mln USD), passing this threshold
for the first time.
There was mainly a growth in correspondent accounts in banks, cash
in banks and credits. The credits increased by 3.3 billion drams,
incliding a growth of 1.8 bln drams in credits to legal entities and
that of 1.4 bln drams in credits to natural persons.
According to the PR Service of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), the
overall capital of the banking system increased by 5.9 bln drams in
the indicated period and made 229.4 bln drams, which was conditioned
by replenishment of a total of 4.2 bln drams in the authorized funds
of 3 banks and a profit of 1.7 bln drams made by the banking system
last week. The liabilities of the system grew by 10.3 bln drams to
771 bln drams. The deposits of natural persons grew by 3.7 bln drams.
GEOGRAPHY OF VISITORS TO NKR KEEPS ON EXPANDING
Dec 19, 2008
YEREVAN, 19.12.08. DE FACTO. In 2008, tourists from dozens of countries
of the world visited the Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
According to the data by the NKR MFA Consular Service, most of them
are the citizens of the USA, France, Canada, Russia, Iran and Great
Britain. As compared with 2007, the number of tourists increased
approximately by 15%.
The geography of the visitors to the NKR keeps on expanding. Tourists
from Pakistan, Singapore and Somali visited Nagorno Karabakh for the
first time this year.
Besides ethnic Armenians, people of various nationalities, in
particular the youth, visit the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. The most
visited places are the historical-architectural monuments and monastic
complexes: Amaras (4-19c.), Dadivank (4-13c.), Gandzasar (13c.), etc.
In 2008, about 70 journalists from 25 countries and a dozen of film
crews visited Nagorno Karabakh to prepare reportages on various
spheres of life of the NKR.