Better relations with Turkey could aid Armenia
The Washington Times
Thursday, August 13, 2009
By Nicholas Clayton
TBILISI, GEORGIA -- Although the process has been slow, the historic
bid to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia announced in
April has potential to shift regional power balances by giving Armenia
an opportunity to wrest itself from dependence on Russia.
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in retaliation for
Armenia's support of an ethnic Armenian secession movement in
neighboring Azerbaijan.
If the Turkish border reopened, landlocked Armenia would have greater
access to trade through ports on the Mediterranean and Black seas, and
would be less dependent on transit through Russia.
"Armenia is a weak country, and it is surrounded by countries that are
either countries that are not friendly or were not friendly up until
very recently," said Masha Lipman, political analyst with the Moscow
Carnegie Center.
"So Armenia found itself with Russia as it's chief protector, but I
don't think this will last for a long time. I think Armenia, like
others, can diversify now," she said.
In April, diplomats from Turkey and Armenia disclosed that two years
of secret diplomatic talks had produced a tentative framework for a
package of sweeping reconciliation measures, including a reopening of
the border and a bilateral commission to investigate what Armenians
have called genocide by the Ottoman Empire, which preceded modern
Turkey.
"Given the history of the relationship between the two [Turkey and
Armenia], if this is real ... it should take a long time. We've only
seen the beginning of it," said Ms. Lipman.
Armenia has maintained a close relationship with Russia since the fall
of the Soviet Union, and Iran has been expanding its economic ties to
the small country.
Ms. Lipman said these relationships have been built out of necessity.
If opened up, Armenia could potentially work toward NATO and EU
integration and could become a major transit country for energy trade
lik ts turbulent relationship with Turkey, however, Armenia's domestic
politics have been an obstacle to strengthening its ties with the
West.
In June, the U.S.-funded Millennium Challenge Corp. cut $64 million
from an aid program aimed at repairing Armenia's crumbling roads. The
corporation's acting director, Rodney Bent, released a statement
saying this was a punitive measure for Armenia, whose actions were
"inconsistent with the eligibility criteria that are at the heart of
the MCC program."
Mr. Bent was making reference to Armenia's May 31 municipal elections,
which -- like the country's February 2008 elections -- were widely
criticized by Western experts and the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan as
fraudulent. With this loss of funds, Armenia turned to Russia and
Iran.
Before the Iranian election crisis, talks were in the works for Iran
to provide funding for the road reconstruction, and Russia announced
this year it would offer a $500 million low-interest loan to Armenia,
which has been hard-hit by the global economic crisis.
"It's a general challenge when countries start to compete for
sponsorship. We saw this from several countries during the Cold War,"
said Ariel Cohen, a senior research fellow at the conservative
Heritage Foundation in Washington.
"I wouldn't be too surprised if Armenia is trying to play this game,
but as long as Turkey and Azerbaijan remain its adversaries, it will
be difficult," Mr. Cohen said.
The biggest obstacle to normalization of ties remains Armenia's frozen
conflict with Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh, whose population is predominately
ethnically Armenian, declared independence from Azerbaijan in
1991. The enclave received direct military support from Armenia as it
fought to secede. Armenia now militarily controls the enclave as well
as about 9 percent of Azerbaijan's total territory outside the
disputed zone.
Karabakh is already labeled as being Armenian territory on many
Armenian maps, but Turkish officials have stated that r he territory's
unrecognized status would be a prerequisite to normalizing ties with
Armenia. Ms. Lipman said changing the status quo, however, is a
mistake.
"No one benefits from this conflict becoming hot instead of
frozen. But any attempt to radically resolve it - any abrupt move, I
think, is very dangerous there," she said.
Nonetheless, during a visit to Turkey in June, U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Rodham Clinton reiterated her support of Turkish efforts to
resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
The other major obstacle to Armenia-Turkey relations involves efforts
to label as a "genocide" a World War I-era pogrom by Ottoman Turks
against ethnic Armenians. An estimated 1.5 million Armenians died in
massacres and forced marches by the Ottoman military.
Turkey says events during its Ottoman predecessor are for historians
to evaluate and that no genocide took place.
Today, 20 countries have officially classified the event as a
genocide, and President Obama said during his presidential campaign
"America deserves a leader who speaks truthfully about the Armenian
genocide."
However, when visiting Turkey in April, he backed away from his
campaign remarks by not using the term "genocide." Mr. Obama later
said that the Congress would not pass legislation for the U.S. to
label the episode a genocide, so as not to not interfere with the
normalization negotiations.
The U.S. State Department declined to clear its Yerevan staff to speak
with the press, primarily because normalization talks with Turkey are
at such a delicate stage, an embassy official said.
On the Turkish side, the normalization negotiations may have an impact
on Turkey's bid to join the European Union.
In Europe, which hosts a large Armenian diaspora, leaders have cited
the genocide dispute as one of several reasons to block its EU
membership bid.
Ms. Lipman, however, denies the two issues are linked.
"It may be a good pretext, but I think the reason [Europe has stalled
Turkey's membership negotiations] goes much deeper," s ion, a strong
economy, a country whose population is growing, as opposed to European
countries, whose populations are going down. It's Muslim, which is
another disadvantage. Again, this isn't very politically correct, but
I'm sure this is regarded as a source of concern for many in Europe."
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yourletters@washingtontimes.com motorists and pedestrians.
dangerous sections of national highways. According to Transport and
$10 million for its implementation.
accidents by 2014. The Armenian police reported last year more than
2,200 accidents that left 407 people dead and 3,125 others injured.
session of his cabinet. `Our human casualty indicators exceed those
of other countries by several times,' he said. `The main cause of
belts by Armenian car drivers and passengers. `You are obliged to
now,' he told top government officials. `It would be good if the
police started from themselves. Police officers must use seat-belts
`There is nothing shameful about using seat-belts. It's the opposite
among local males.
corresponding instruction to the traffic police later in the day.
example,' he told RFE/RL.
strengthening Armenians' broader respect for laws. `Law and order in
the country starts from maintaining road safety rules,' he said.
