The Economist on Turkish Foreign Policy (including relations with Armenia)‏

TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY: DREAMS FROM THEIR FATHERSEconomistJuly 23 2009Turkey's canny foreign minister seeks to pursue delicate diplomacyall aroundWHEN the official result of Iran's contested presidential electionwas announced last month, Turkey was one of the first countries tocongratulate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Set against the repression (anddeaths) of Iranian protesters in the streets, this raised eyebrowsin Europe and America. It even provoked the tired old question ofwhether Turkey may be turning its back on the West."People see only one side of this story," complains Ahmet Davutoglu,Turkey's foreign minister, in an interview. He does not elaborate. ButTurkey's friendship with the Islamic republic has also proved useful tothe West. Its behind-the-scenes mediation was instrumental in securingthe recent release of British embassy staff in Tehran. And it canplay both ways. Five Iranian diplomats detained by the Americans inIraq in 2007 were freed earlier this month at Turkey's urging.The ease with which Turkey juggles different worlds, be they Arab orJewish, Muslim or European, prompted Hillary Clinton to call it an"emerging global power". Its strong relations with Israel matter toboth countries, as became clear when they cooled during the invasionof Gaza in January. The Turks have just had a high-profile spat withChina over its treatment of Xinjiang's Uighurs, whom they regardas kinsmen. It was understandable that one of Barack Obama's firstpresidential visits to a foreign country was to Turkey.Some credit is due to Mr Davutoglu, who was a foreign-policy adviserto the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for seven years beforebecoming foreign minister in May. This spry former academic is seen asthe architect of Turkey's soft power, which blends realpolitik witha fierce pride. A pious Muslim with a moralistic bent, Mr Davutogluhas been among the most influential foreign ministers in the historyof the Turkish republic.His approach rests on two pillars. One is to have "zero problems"with the neighbours, many of them troubled or troublesome. The otheris "strategic depth". This calls for a Turkish zone of political,economic and cultural influence, primarily among neighbours (manyof them former Ottoman dominions) in the Balkans, the south Caucasusand the Middle East.None of this detracts from Turkey's determination to join theEuropean Union. Rather, it enhances its appeal as a member, says MrDavutoglu. He seems unfazed by the hostile noises from France andGermany. Both Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are lobbying for a"privileged partnership" instead of full membership for Turkey. MrDavutoglu suggests that they are merely playing to their respectiveelectorates. "Instead of complaining, of being angry, we should worktogether," he says. For Turkey that means reviving the flagging reformprocess that won it the opening of EU membership talks in 2005. MrDavutoglu is hopeful, for example, that the Greek Orthodox seminaryon the island of Halki off Istanbul will soon be reopened.But EU diplomats say none of this will let Turkey off the hook overCyprus. Mr Davutoglu agrees that decades-old peace talks betweenTurkish- and Greek-Cypriot leaders should not be open-ended. Adeal really needs to be struck by the end of this year. For that tohappen the EU and America must tell the Greek-Cypriots to get serious(though, as EU members already, they have little incentive to help). Asettlement would avert the possible train wreck in Turkey's relationswith the EU that might otherwise come in December. In theory Turkeyhas until then to open air- and seaports to the Greek-Cypriots, but itrefuses to do this until EU trade restrictions on Turkish-controllednorth Cyprus are lifted.Might France and Turkey's other enemies use this as an excuseto freeze the EU membership talks altogether (eight chapters havealready been suspended)? Turkish leaders like to believe that Europeneeds Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe. It has become even morecrucial as a potential transit route for Europe-bound natural gasfrom energy-rich Azerbaijan and Central Asia, as well as from Iraq(and eventually Iran). Mr Davutoglu points proudly to the recentsigning of an agreement between Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungaryand Austria on the Nabucco pipeline that is meant to carry gas throughthese countries, reducing Europe's dependence on Russia.Yet some say that Turkey is overplaying its hand. Its energy dreams aretightly linked to its ethnic cousins in Azerbaijan. Relations betweenthese Turkic allies took a dive in April when Turkey unveiled a draftagreement to establish diplomatic ties and reopen its border withArmenia. In a dramatic shift, Turkey even dropped its long-runningprecondition that Armenia must withdraw from the territories that itoccupied in the 1990s after its war with Azerbaijan over the mainlyArmenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.An infuriated Azerbaijan promptly threatened to turn to Russia. InJune it signed a deal to sell gas to the Russians from 2010onwards. So Turkey did another volte-face. Mr Erdogan declared thatfriendship with Armenia was no longer possible unless it withdrewfrom Nagorno-Karabakh. Mr Davutoglu insists that Turkey wants
peace with Armenia. But one Western diplomat says that
"rapprochement with Armenia is on its last legs."This has raised the spectre of a row with Turkey's most powerful ally,America. Armenian-Americans want Mr Obama to honour his electionpledge to insist that the massacre by Ottoman forces of more than amillion of their ancestors in 1915 was genocide. In a fudge in AprilMr Obama said that he had not changed his views on the matter; yet hespoke only of the Medz Yeghern ("great calamity" in Armenian). He didnot want to torpedo Turkish-Armenian rapprochement by using the G-word.Turkey's strategic location had once again proven decisive. AsAmerican forces withdraw from Iraq, Turkey is seeking to avert alooming conflict between the Arabs and the Kurds, especially over thedisputed city of Kirkuk. Turkey urged Iraq's Sunnis not to boycottelections in 2005. Mr Davutoglu is again lobbying to ensure thatall Iraqi groups take part in the parliamentary election in January2010. "We have excellent relations with the United States at everylevel," he says. And, notes a Western official, "when it comes toTurkey and Armenia, Turkey wins every time."
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