Karabagh Negotiations as reported in the Russian Press‏

MOSCOW IN KARABAKH'S DEAD ENDby Svetlana Gamova, Sokhbet MamedovWPS AgencyWhat the Papers Say (Russia)July 22, 2009 WednesdayRussiaTHE AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN MEETING IN MOSCOW: COMPROMISE REMAINS OUT OFREACH; Yerevan and Baku are no closer to the Nagorno-Karabakh solution.The meeting between the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscowin the presence of the Russian president last week-end inevitablybecame the talk of the day in Yerevan, Baku, and Stepanakert. Nowonder, since the meeting was centered around Nagorno-Karabakh. ThisTuesday, Azerbaijani officials hailed the Madrid Principles of conflictsettlement based on the return of the Azerbaijani territories occupiedby the Armenians. Their counterparts in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakhin the meantime condemned these principles as "treason" and pinnedthe blame on intermediaries. On Russia, in other words.The propaganda that preceded the Azerbaijani-Armenian meeting inMoscow promised the involved parties a solution to the problem ofNagorno-Karabakh. A solution arranged by Russia, of course.The very first reaction to the meeting, however, made it plainthat a compromise in the matter was still out of reach. OfficialBaku hails the Madrid Principles as the basis of all and anynegotiations while Yerevan and Stepanakert refuse to even acknowledgethem. Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mamedjarov said at thepress conference in Baku this Monday that participants in the Moscowmeeting had discussed the return of five districts occupied by theArmenian forces to Azerbaijan as the first step towards conflictsettlement, one to be followed by determination of the status ofNagorno-Karabakh. Mamedjarov called it a reasonable and true wayof dealing with the problem. Karabakh proclaimed this way erroneousthat same day. Some non-governmental organizations from Karabakh evencalled the very talks between intermediaries "volatile" for the region.Experts attribute it all to the traditional mutually exclusivecomments from participants in the talks that thoroughly confusedgeneral public wondering that the leaders of the two countries haddiscussed in the space of nearly three hours and what offers DmitryMedvedev had made them."The meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia mayhave failed to result in an immediate breakthrough, but reactivationof the talks makes us happy - and particularly Russia's activenessdoes. Negotiations with [President of Russia Medvedev instill thehope in a successful completion of the process of negotiations,"Mamedjarov said at the press conference. He even announced that "thedecision has been made on withdrawal of the Armenian troops from theterritory of Nagorno-Karabakh."Mamedjarov's Armenian opposite number Edward Nalbandjan refuted hiswords that same day."Armenia has never officially voiced approval of the Madrid offers. Allwe said was that they were a basis for negotiations," Nalbandjansaid. As for the withdrawal of troops and refugees' return, theArmenian foreign minister said that nothing of the sort had been somuch as mentioned at the meeting in Moscow.President of Armenia Serj Sargsjan meanwhile broached the matterat the meeting with Foreign Minister of Sweden Karl Bildt inYerevan. "Azerbaijan nearby is distorting the point of the talks,"he said. Sargsjan acknowledged that certain progress had been made but"not without difficulties". He informed Bildt, "What we are doing atthis point is discussing the basic principles singled out from thelist of the so called Madrid Principles. Once that is done, we willdiscuss the rest of the principles and finally come down to work onthe agreement as such.""I'd say everyone should understand that status of Nagorno-Karabakh isthe principal issue," Sargsjan said. "This status should be determinedby free will and be legally binding. When we are finally through withit, I'd say that the negotiations will be easier."Exited by Baku's words on the alleged agreement to withdraw theArmenian forces from the occupied territories, political oppositionin Armenia had demanded Sargsjan's impeachment.
NICE TO MEET YOU: MOSCOW CAN'T MAINTAIN STATUS QUO OF NAGORNO KARABAKHby Ivan SukhovWPS AgencyDEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)July 22, 2009 WednesdayRussiaMOSCOW CANNOT MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH AS ANINSTRUMENT OF DEALING WITH BAKU AND YEREVAN ANYMORE; Russia failedto broker an Azerbaijani-Armenian rapprochement over Nagorno-Karabakh.Last Saturday, the Kremlin's press service laconically proclaimed theAzerbaijani-Armenian negotiations in Moscow to have been constructiveand left it at that.This taciturn comment was all the media had to be satisfiedwith because the leaders refused to meet with the waitingjournalists. Armenian correspondents decided that the Azerbaijanileader's demeanor signified displeasure. On the other hand, not oneof the three participants in the talks seemed to have anything to bepleased with.Of course, any meeting of the leaders of these two countries isalready a success. Armenia and Azerbaijan are divided by the problemof Nagorno-Karabakh, the oldest suspended ethnic conflict in thesouthern part of the Caucasus.Nearly half a million Azerbaijanis stampeded out of Nagorno-Karabakhin the course and after the hostilities - and untold thousands ofArmenians left Azerbaijan. Karabakh had defended its independence. By1993, the Armenians all but occupied the Azerbaijani districtssurrounding the former autonomy, the ones that had served as thesecurity zone. Cease-fire agreement finally stopped the bloodshed,but the actual border between Armenia, Karabakh with the nearby areas,and Azerbaijan remains a site of regular clashes and skirmishes.Attention of Russia was focused of late on two other republics nearby,Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As for Karabakh, official Moscow keptregarding it as an instrument enabling the Kremlin to apply pressureto both warring sides, namely Armenia and Azerbaijan. The war inGeorgia in August 2008 compelled Russian politicians to start payingattention to the Azerbaijani-Armenian latent conflict again.Neither Baku nor Yerevan was particularly happy to watch the shootingwar in Georgia nearby. Apart from Iran, Georgia is Armenia's onlygateway into the world. The complications in the Russian-Georgianrelations postponed restoration of normal traffic between Armeniaand southern regions of Russia.As for Azerbaijan, the war in Georgia plainly showed it the fragilenature of its strategic oil and gas export route via Georgia toTurkey and on to the West. It is this oil and gas export that madeAzerbaijan the best industrially advanced country in the southernpart of the Caucasus.Active rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey meanwhile began lastautumn. These two countries had been also divided by the discordover the border and the Karabakh enclave (Turkey unequivocally backedAzerbaijan in the conflict). Even more important, the discord betweenArmenia and Turkey is rooted in political evaluation of the massacre ofthe Armenians in the then Ottoman Empire in 1915. Granted that theseproblems have no easy solutions, it is clear that Armenia and Turkeywill have to do something to bridge the gap between them despite theresistance to the process put up by nationalists in both countries.However unexpected it might appear, but the president of Turkey madehis first visit to Yerevan last autumn, paving the way for April 2009when foreign ministers of the two countries signed the Road Map ofrapprochement in the capital of Armenia. Apart from everything else,this rapprochement is expected to finally reopen the border betweenthese two countries. If and when it happens, Russia's number one allyin this part of the Caucasus will immediately turn to Turkey. (?)All these considerations couldn't help disturbing Moscow. PresidentsSerj Sargsjan, Ilham Aliyev, and Dmitry Medvedev signed the MeiendorfDeclaration in Moscow on November 2, 2008. The document confirmedthe principle of nonrenewal of hostilities and reiterated status ofthe OSCE Minsk Group as the only format of Nagorno-Karabakh conflictsettlement. Sargsjan and Aliyev met in Moscow on several occasionsagain, but without any success. Neither did the meeting after theraces last Saturday become a breakthrough. It should have probablybeen anticipated. Aliyev had said in London a couple of days before hisvisit to Moscow that Azerbaijan was prepared to give Nagorno-Karabakhbroad powers of an autonomy but never sovereignty.The problem is, maintaining the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh asan instrument of keeping both Yerevan and Baku under pressure isno longer an option for Moscow. Neither can it openly choose oneside of the fence. Support of Armenia will sour its relations withAzerbaijan. Support of Azerbaijan will cost Russia its "strategically".Russia is not to be envied. Refuse to show respect for demands fromAzerbaijani to restore its territorial integrity, and Baku might becomean ardent participant in Nabucco. Comply with its demands and Armeniawill take offence and facilitate rapprochement with Turkey. Neither isthe latter probable without at least some progress in the matter ofthe Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. It is possible, in theory,that the problem of the former security zone, i.e. the Azerbaijanidistricts occupied by the Armenians, will be solved but any politicalgambit towards this compromise will inevitably reactivate fiercelynationalist opposition in Armenia. Sargsjan may then find himself inthe shoes of his principal enemy in the presidential race in 2008,first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosjan.


ALIYEV ADVISES ARMENIA TO TAKE AZERBAIJAN'S MILITARY,
ECONOMIC SUCCESSES INTO ACCOUNTInterfaxJuly 22 2009RussiaAzerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has advised the Armenian side totake the current realities into account in settling the conflict inNagorno Karabakh."If the Armenian side takes into account the actual situation,Azerbaijan's growing opportunities. If it analyzes and takes intoaccount Azerbaijan's military, economic, political and diplomaticsuccesses, the question may be settled," he said at an expandedCabinet meeting."I am happy that the current state of the Azerbaijani army is suchthat it can successfully carry out any task it is facing. All ourefforts serve one goal, the restoration of the territorial integrityof Azerbaijan and the withdrawal of occupation forces from occupiedAzerbaijani territories," Aliyev said.He stressed that Azerbaijan's approach to the conflict settlementrests on international law.
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