Armenia:Turkey Protocols - more analysis‏

Azerbaijan and Turkey Protect Armenia's National Interest Inadvertently
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier

8 September 2009

After reviewing hundreds of articles in regional and international
media outlets and scores of statements by various officials regarding
the Protocols between Armenia and Turkey, it is clear that these
agreements will not be ratified by the Turkish Parliament, unless the
Armenian government first makes concessions on Karabagh (Artsakh).

As expected, there was great agitation against the Protocols last week
among opposition political parties in both Armenia and Turkey.
Furthermore, some Azeri officials and analysts criticized Turkish
leaders for appearing to go back on their repeated promises of not
opening Turkey's border with Armenia until the Karabagh conflict was
resolved.

On April 22nd, when Armenia and Turkey made public a "Roadmap" to
regulate their contentious relations and open their mutual border,
Azerbaijan strongly objected, threatening to retaliate against Turkey
by taking a number of steps, including cutting off oil supplies.
Turkish leaders immediately stopped the implementation of the "Roadmap"
in order to appease their "Junior brother," Azerbaijan. Turkish
officials repeatedly announced that they would not open their country's
border with Armenia, unless the Karabagh conflict was settled to the
satisfaction of Azerbaijan. Prime Minister Erdogan felt obligated to
fly to Baku in May to make the same pledge in his address to the Azeri
Parliament.

But as international pressure mounted on both Armenia and Turkey to go
forward with the frozen "Roadmap," Turkish leaders were careful not to
alienate Azerbaijan once again. This time around, they fully briefed
Pres. Aliyev during every step of their discussions with Armenia,
repeatedly assuring Azerbaijan that its interests would be protected
and that nothing would be agreed upon with Armenia, unless the Karabagh
conflict was first settled. Just before the two Protocols were
announced on August 31, Prime Minister Erdogan briefed Pres. Aliyev by
telephone and a high-level Turkish delegation flew to Baku for
follow-up talks.

A close reading of the lengthy text of the professionally crafted two
Protocols and the appended Timetable indicates that the most critical
detail `the date of their expected ratification ` is left out! The
documents spell out in great precision the terms of the agreements as
well as the specific deadline for each of "the steps to be undertaken."
For example, they state that as of August 31, Armenia and Turkey have
six weeks to complete "internal political consultations" before the
Protocols are submitted to their respective Parliaments for
ratification. The documents also specify the exact timeline for the
opening of the border and the formation of various committees.

However, all of these steps are contingent upon the crucial
prerequisite of ratification of the Protocols by the two Parliaments,
for which no date and no deadline is mandated. The joint announcement
issued on August 31 by Armenia and Turkey, simply calls on both sides
to "make their best efforts" for the "timely" ratification of the
Protocols. The missing deadline is certainly not the result of an
oversight!

After securing Armenian officials' agreement to Turkey's two
preconditions ` the formation of a "historical" committee and
recognizing its territorial integrity ` Ankara found a clever solution
for its third precondition. It made the opening of the border with
Armenia contingent upon the resolution of the Artsakh conflict, without
including a direct reference to this requirement in the Protocols.
Since the ratification of the proposed agreement by the two Parliaments
does not have a particular deadline, the Turkish government will
probably apply its extensive diplomatic resources to pressure Armenia `
via the OSCE Minsk Group of mediators on Artsakh, composed of France,
Russia and the United States ` into making concessions acceptable to
Azerbaijan.

Turkey could therefore be expected to delay the ratification of the
Protocols by its Parliament until Azerbaijan's conditions are met on
Artsakh. In recent days, several Turkish commentators pointed out this
gaping loophole in the Protocols, boasting that Turkey would not open
its border until Armenia makes territorial concessions on Artsakh.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made that same pledge
practically on a daily basis since the August 31 announcement.
Interestingly, Pres. Aliyev has not said one critical word about this
agreement which calls for the opening of the border with Armenia `
something he vehemently opposes. The reason is that he is assured by
Ankara that nothing of that sort would take place until Artsakh is
delivered to him on a silver platter!

Armenia's President and Foreign Minister, on the other hand, have been
repeatedly stating that they would not accept any linkage between the
Artsakh negotiations and the opening of the Turkish border. In order to
preserve their own credibility and safeguard the country's national
interests, Armenia's leaders should not make even the smallest
concession on Artsakh and not ratify these Protocols, until the Turkish
Parliament ratifies them first. But, since Turkey refuses to ratify
them without the settlement of the Artsakh conflict, the whole
agreement would collapse and the international community would then
hold Turkey solely responsible for its failure!

AGREEMENT BETWEEN YEREVAN AND ANKARA SHOULD CONTAIN

ELEMENTS ELIMINATING CONSEQUENCES OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE
PanARMENIAN.Net
07.09.2009 19:01 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Any agreement signed between Yerevan and Ankara
should contain elements eliminating consequences of Armenian
Genocide, said Hayk Demoyan, Director of Armenian Genocide
Museum-Institute. "Currently, there are minimum two elements of
that kind. First, Turkey should not create obstacles for clarifying
relationship ties. There are many examples when people tried to find
one another through blood relations. That's one of reasons causing
anxiety to Turkish side which perfectly realizes that generation
change eventually leading to elimination of relationship ties is
still in process," the speaker said.

The second element which will hold Turkey accountable and eliminate
consequences of Armenian Genocide is compliance with clauses prescribed
by Lausanne agreement, Demoyan finds. "That's to say, elimination of
Armenian cultural heritage on Turkish territory. That's a violation
of existing agreements, including Lausanne Treaty. In that connection,
it is necessary to set up a fact-finding group with the involvement of
a third party which will register all Armenian monuments situated in
Turkey. Under Lausanne Treaty, Turkey committed itself to restoring
Christians church complexes and returning them to their owners If we
are able to submit to any committee, including International Court,
concrete examples and facts demanding liability, Turkey will be obliged
not only to restore those monument but also return them to community,"
Hayk Demoyan noted.

At this point, a question arises as to whether those monuments should
be returned to Constantinople community or the Armenians who can
return to Turkey and create communities there. "Under European law,
Turkey's resistance to return Armenians to their native land is a
serious violation that may create serious problems for the country,"
Director of Genocide Museum-Institute stated.

AZERBAIJAN MAY ALSO OPEN BORDERS WITH ARMENIA
Today's Zaman
Sept 9 2009
Turkey

Azerbaijan is ready to open its border with Armenia and establish
formal relations if Yerevan returns five occupied regions adjacent
to disputed Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azerbaijani official has said.

Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Elkhan Polukhov
told Today's Zaman on Tuesday that Azerbaijan may consider opening its
borders with Armenia in case of a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

"It has been said in earlier statements from Azerbaijani officials that
Azerbaijan is ready to open borders and restore dialogue with Armenia
if the first stage of a plan to resolve the conflict is implemented,"
he said.

Explaining Azerbaijan's firm position on what it means as the first
stage, Polukhov said it would involve the return of five regions
adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory heavily populated by ethnic
Armenians, without conditions and a certain date set for the return of
two neighboring cities, Kelbecer and Lachin. These two towns constitute
a corridor for Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenians to mainland Armenia and
are of great significance for a possible unification with Armenia.

Azerbaijan, a close ally of Turkey and a key natural gas supplier
for the proposed Nabucco project destined to reach Europe, earlier
criticized Turkey's own plans to open its border with Armenia,
closed in 1993 in a show of solidarity with Azerbaijan in its war
with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Commenting on the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, the spokesperson
said Azerbaijan had clearly stated its position that the opening of
borders between Turkey and Armenia is not in line with the national
interest of Azerbaijan at this point. During his visit to Baku in
mid-May, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that
the borders would not open unless there were a breakthrough in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Talking about further steps, Polukhov also said that after these
developments, there will be negotiations on the return of internally
displaced persons (IDPs) to the occupied regions. When these
conditions are met, "Both railways and highways between the two
countries will be operational," the spokesperson said. Azerbaijan
has nearly half a million IDPs and refugees who fled from Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh during the clashes with Armenians. However, as
they are granted citizenship, they are no longer regarded as IDPs or
refugees. There are several hundred thousand Armenians who fled to
Armenia from Azerbaijan during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Polukhov said it is too early to discuss the mandate and structure of
peacekeeping forces in returned lands. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought
a full-scale war over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in
the early 1990s. The Armenian side claims that Nagorno-Karabakh's
Armenians were deprived of their basic rights under Azerbaijani rule
throughout the century and the region either needs to be annexed to
Armenia or be independent. The Azerbaijani side, however, argues that
the solution to Nagorno-Karabakh's problems should be found within
Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Azerbaijan agrees to grant a high
level of autonomy to Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenians.

US appoints new co-chair to Minsk Group Meanwhile, the US announced
it has appointed Ambassador Robert Bradtke as the next US co-chair
of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE)
Minsk Group, a group of international mediators working for the
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

Bradtke, a career diplomat with 36 years of experience, last served
as the US ambassador to Croatia. In July, he completed a three-year
assignment as chief of mission at the US Embassy in Zagreb. Prior
to that, he served from 2001 to 2004 as deputy assistant secretary
of state for European and Eurasian affairs, with responsibility for
NATO and the OSCE.

"The United States understands the critical importance of achieving
a peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," said Ian
Kelly, spokesman for the US State Department in a statement issued
on Monday. He said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has indicated
to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan "her strong interest in
the Minsk Group's ongoing efforts to bring the process to a fruitful
conclusion" and that "the Obama administration is committed to doing
everything possible to support this goal."
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