CAUCASUS ARMS RACE

http://mondediplo.com/2007/07/11armrace

The Georgian defence minister, David Kezerashvili, caused a sensation in May when he announced an increase in the 2007 military budget, which will now be $550m. Budget revenue for the year will total $2.1bn. According to the official figures, defence spending has increased tenfold since the rose revolution, and the real figure must be even higher. Tbilisi has also announced that it will send reinforcements to Iraq soon, increasing the size of its contingent
from 850 to 2,000. Georgia will become the third largest military contributor to the US-led occupation forces. Since 2001 Georgia has received substantial US military aid in training and equipment.

But why does Georgia need to spend so much? It barely had an army before the revolution and must make serious efforts if it wants to join Nato in the near future, one of the government's top priorities.

Military experts in Tbilisi are complaining that most of the best officers trained under the US programme have now left the military, citing the shortage of housing and low pay. Part of the current budget increase will fund new officers' quarters and higher wages.

But the government has other goals. The Georgian army has just finished building a new base for more than 3,000 soldiers at Senaki, near Abkhazia. A second base is being built at Gori, 30 minutes' drive from Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. Georgia also spends much of its defence budget on procurement, including Ukrainian- built tanks and field guns, and equipment from the arsenals of east European countries that recently joined Nato and want to dispose of outdated Soviet weaponry. Many of the Georgian army's recent purchases are not Nato-compatible but could be used in future combats in the self-proclaimed independent republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Military spending in Azerbaijan has also increased dramatically, from $135m in 2003 to $871m in 2007. With a steady flow of oil revenue now that the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline is running, the Azerbaijani president has promised military spending on a par with the entire budget of Armenia. Baku has also purchased ground-attack jets, tanks, artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. Since 2003 the Azerbaijani leadership has asserted that if the current negotiations with Yerevan do not give it control over Karabakh and the six adjoining Azerbaijani provinces, currently occupied by Armenian forces, then it will use force to get its way.

Armenia is keen to catch up in the arms race, and spending has risen from $100m in 2005 to $210m in 2007. It is determined to support the Karabakh armed forces, financially and through military cooperation.

This tiny republic has a population of only 150,000 [this figure must be wrong] . Yet it maintains a fighting force of up to 20,000 and is spending heavily on a third line of defences.

There are still three Russian bases in the region. Batumi and Akhalkalaki in Georgia are being evacuated, but there are no plans to close the base at Gumri in Armenia. There is also a large radar system at Gabala in Azerbaijan. The US has increased military cooperation with all three countries, particularly Georgia. The Georgian government even announced that it would be prepared to locate parts of the US anti-missile system on its territory, prompting a furious response from Moscow.

This fast arms race might give political leaders in the Caucasus a false but dangerous sense of strength. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union there have been five wars in the region. Millions still suffer the consequences. As recent events in the Middle East and Central Asia have shown, it is easier to start a war than to end it.