Tuesday, 6 November 2007

H106: After the Committee Vote‏

Bush Adamant In Opposing Armenian Genocide Resolution
AP, AFP

U.S. President George W. Bush has no plan to intervene with the top House of Representatives lawmaker to urge her not to bring to a vote a planned resolution to declare World-War I-era mass killings of Armenians a genocide, a spokesman said Monday.

The Bush administration has been lobbying intensely to persuade lawmakers to reject the resolution, which Bush believes would harm relations with Turkey. Turkey has said as much, promising that the document's passage by the full House would cause severe damage to
relations.

"There should be no question of the president's views on this issue and the damage that this resolution could do to U.S. foreign policy interests," White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto told reporters Monday aboard Air Force One.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who as the top Democrat in the House controls its agenda, has said she will schedule a vote soon on the resolution, which was approved last week by the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Fratto said the White House does not want Pelosi to bring it to the floor; should it come to a vote, he said, "We will strongly encourage members not to support it."

Pelosi and other top U.S. Democrats Sunday brushed off Turkish fury and vowed to press ahead with a bill condemning the mass killing of Armenians decades ago as "genocide," to right past wrongs. Pelosi said possible reprisals affecting Turkey's cooperation with the US military
were "hypothetical" and would not derail the resolution. Holding a vote on condemning the massacre, even many years after the fact, is "about who we are as a country," Pelosi told ABC television.

"Genocide still exists, and we saw it in Rwanda; we see it now in Darfur," she said on ABC television after the House foreign affairs committee last week branded the Ottoman Empire's World War I massacre of Armenians a genocide.

But the White House warned Sunday that the bill could bring "grave harm" to the already strained relations between Washington and Ankara. "We regret that the Speaker Pelosi is intent on bringing this resolution for a vote despite the strong concerns expressed by foreign policy and defense experts, including a bipartisan group of former secretaries of
state, and our Turkish allies," Fratto said at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas.

The bill is likely to come up in the full House in November. Although the resolution is only symbolic, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington last week and has called off visits to the United States by at least two of its officials.

The angry reaction has fueled fears within the US administration that it could lose access to a military base in NATO ally Turkey that provides a crucial staging ground for US supplies headed to Iraq and Afghanistan. Two top US officials, one each from the state and defense departments, are now in Turkey to try to cool the diplomatic row. "We are certainly working to try to minimize any concrete steps the government might take (such as) restricting the movement of our troops," US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Saturday in Moscow.

Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates lobbied hard against the genocide resolution, and the administration says it will keep up its effort to forestall a vote in the full House of Representatives.

US-Turkish military ties "will never be the same again" if the House confirms the committee vote, Turkey's military chief General Yasar Buyukanit told the daily Milliyet on Sunday.

House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer said that he had repeatedly raised the Armenia killings with Turkish political and military leaders during his 26 years in Congress. "Never once in that quarter of a century has anybody on the Turkish government said this is the right time. In other words, there would never be a right time," he said on Fox News Sunday. "If we forget what has happened... then we are at risk of letting it happen again."

House Republican leader John Boehner said there was no doubt that the Armenian people's suffering in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire was "extreme." "But what happened 90 years ago ought to be a subject for historians to sort out, not politicians here in Washington," he said.

"And I think bringing this bill to the floor may be the mostirresponsible thing I've seen this new Congress do this year," Boehnersaid, calling Turkey "a very important ally in our war against the terrorists."

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said there was "no question" that Armenians had been slaughtered en masse. "But I don't think the Congress passing this resolution is a good idea at any point. But particularly not a good idea when Turkey is cooperating with us in many
ways, which ensures greater safety for our soldiers," he said.

Opponents of the measure fear Turkey may be a less cooperative partner in the war on terror and is more likely to plow ahead with a possible military incursion against Kurdish rebel bases across its border into Iraq, dismissing calls from both the European Union and the United
States for dialogue. A government bill seeking the go-ahead to launch an incursion any time in the next year is expected to be submitted to parliament after a cabinet meeting in Ankara Monday.

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Agence France Presse -- English
October 17, 2007 Wednesday 9:50 PM GMT
Support flagging for 'genocide' resolution
by Marie Sanz

US Congressional support flagged Wednesday for a resolution calling the World War I massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks "genocide" amid concern over Turkey's threat to cut off support for the Iraq war.

In apparent retreat from their initial stance, a group of Democrats in the House of Representatives, including the influential John Murtha, said they would "very vigorously" oppose the measure cleared last week by a committee.

"If voted today it would not pass on the floor," Murtha said.

Anger is brewing in Turkey over the US "genocide" resolution, which Ankara deems unacceptable. Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington and has threatened to cut off logistical support of US-led war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In a bid to calm tensions, President George W. Bush has urged Turkey not to carry out cross-border strikes on Kurdish rebels in Iraq -- advice shrugged off by lawmakers in Ankara who greenlighted such attacks -- and called on Democrats to abandon the "genocide" measure.

"What happened nearly 100 years ago was terrible; the point is we have to deal with today's world," Murtha told a news conference.

"Turkey is a strong ally of the US and I believe that this resolution could harm our relations with (them), and therefore our strategic interests in the region," added the Pennsylvania representative.

The lawmakers' about-face was welcomed by the State Department.

"I am pleased to note that over the last 24 hours ... there have been a number of members of Congress who have now come out and publicly stated that they have changed their view and would no longer be supporting this resolution," spokesman Tom Casey said Wednesday.

Earlier, Bush once more came out against the resolution.

"Congress has more important work to do than antagonizing a democratic ally in the Muslim world, especially one that's providing vital support for our military every day," Bush told reporters, calling the proposed measure "counterproductive."

The bill brands as a genocide the 1915 massacre of more than 1.5 million Armenians under Turkey's Ottoman Empire. Turkey believes fewer Armenians were killed -- 250,000-500,000 -- and strongly rejects the notion that it was genocide.

Democrat Alcee Hastings, who heads the House committee on Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said Turkey was a "key strategic ally" and a "moderate Muslim country."

A vote on the controversial measure comes at a "critical time for our men and women in uniform in the region, and for the stability of the Middle East."

Officials from both Turkey and the White House over the past few days have lobbied members of Congress to oppose a vote on the resolution, which is expected next month.

The New York Times said Wednesday that former Republican lawmaker Robert Livingston, 64, has become Turkey's chief lobbyist in the US Congress -- for a fee of more than 12 million dollars.

House speaker Nancy Pelosi has yet to respond to her colleagues' pressure, but last week made it quite clear she intends to bring the genocide resolution to a vote, brushing aside urgings to the contrary from Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

The resolution, should it prosper, is non-binding and would impose no obligation on the White House.

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Financial Times (London, England)
October 18, 2007 Thursday
London Edition 1
Pelosi backtracks over Armenians resolution
By DANIEL DOMBEY

Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, yesterday backtracked on her support for a US Congressional resolution that has infuriated Turkey's government, amid increasingdoubts over whether the measure would ever be approved.

As recently as the weekend, Ms Pelosi said that she planned to take the bill, which denounces mass killings of Armenians during the Ottoman Empire as genocide, to the full House this year. Ms Pelosi is a long standing backer of the measure, in spite of the anger it has
caused in Turkey.

But, yesterday, facing increasing criticism and a series of high profile defections from the ranks of the bill's supporters, she toned down her commitment to take it to a full House vote.

"Whether it will come up or not and what the action will be remains to be seen," she said.

During this week, declared support for the bill has fallen below the level needed for House approval, with at least 10 Congressmen withdrawing their backing in addition to several others who peeled off earlier this year. As of yesterday, the bill had 215 sponsors or co-sponsors in the 435 member House.

"If it came to the floor today it wouldn't pass," Representative John Murtha, an influential Democratic legislator, said at a press conference with four other Democrats who also called on Ms Pelosi not to proceed with the bill.

"This is clearly causing nervousness among House members who are only now realising the implications," a Republican aide said. "It puts in doubt whether this resolution will ever be voted on by the House."

The legislation, which was backed by the House's foreign affairs committee last week, has sparked concerns that US influence with Ankara could be weakened at a time when the Turkish government is contemplating a large scale military incursion into Northern Iraq, to
Washington's dismay.

The US military is also alarmed that the Turkish government could reduce logistical support for its troops in Iraq.

"One thing Congress should not be doing is sorting out the historical record of the Ottoman Empire," President George W. Bush said yesterday, after having made a phone call to Ms Pelosi on the issue the day before. "Congress has more important work to do than antagonising a democratic ally in the Muslim world, especially one that's providing vital support for our military every day."

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U.S. and Turkey Thwart Armenian Genocide Bill
By Carl Hulse

WASHINGTON, Oct. 25 — With backing from more than half of the House this summer, proponents of a resolution condemning the Armenian genocide were confident that they would finally prevail in their quest for Congressional recognition.

Adding to their optimism, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was a longtime backer of the resolution, which had been pushed mainly by her fellow Californians, and was committed to bringing it to a House vote.

But supporters of the measure were not prepared for the vehement opposition of two powerful governments — Turkey, the successor state to the Ottoman Empire, which historians say conducted the genocide, and the United States, which needs Turkey’s help in Iraq. Their combined resistance caused the resolution to falter, embarrassing the speaker on a high-profile foreign policy front.

On Thursday, supporters surrendered, at least for now, telling Ms. Pelosi they were willing to wait until next year. “We believe that a large majority of our colleagues want to support a resolution recognizing the genocide on the House floor and that they will do so, provided the timing is more favorable,” the four chief sponsors said in a letter to Ms. Pelosi.

The faltering of the push to denounce the genocide illustrates what can happen when domestic politics collide with international affairs and how treacherous that can be for Congressional leaders like Ms. Pelosi, who came under criticism this year for a trip to Syria. It also turned a near triumph into a disappointment for those who believe Congress has a responsibility to send a message on past inhumanities to prevent future ones.

“We certainly thought it would be a very tough fight, but it was a much more lopsided one than we expected,” said Representative Adam B. Schiff, a California Democrat and a main sponsor of the bill. Once Democrats gained control of Congress in January, supporters of the measure mobilized, seeing a way clear to the final vote that had eluded them because of opposition first from the Clinton administration and then from the Bush White House.

Ms. Pelosi as well as Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the new majority leader, were dedicated proponents of the resolution that would put the House on record as defining the deaths of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians in 1915 as genocide. The crisis in Darfur, in Sudan, had raised public consciousness about genocide as well.

“This issue had a constituency, and there was a lot of momentum due to the switch in leadership and Darfur,” said Aram Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of America.

It did not hurt that Armenians are an influential bloc in California, Ms. Pelosi’s home, and that the resolution was a top priority of California House members of both parties, including Mr. Schiff and two other Democrats, Brad Sherman and Anna G. Eshoo. Ms. Eshoo is a lawmaker of Armenian heritage who is a close friend of Ms. Pelosi’s.

Mr. Sherman said the speaker’s decision to pledge a vote by the full House was not about personal relationships but about principle. “You don’t have to have a special relationship with this speaker to get her to be in favor of recognizing genocide,” he said.

While the backers of the resolution pressed ahead, the Turkish government also went to work, hiring a lobbying team to raise concerns about the potential backlash in Turkey if the resolution was approved, particularly when Turkey is a staging ground for the Iraq war.

The Turkish government has resisted the characterization of a genocide, seeing the deaths as among the many tragic losses in a time of brutal conflict. But most of the lobbying against the resolution centered on the need not to antagonize Turkey at a time when it was of crucial strategic value.

Among those carrying that message was Representative John P. Murtha, a Pennsylvania Democrat and a close ally of Ms. Pelosi’s, who began warning her in February against the bill.

“I explained what the ramifications were from a military standpoint, but she said she felt compelled to do it,” said Mr. Murtha, who welcomed Thursday’s decision. By midsummer, the advocates had 225 sponsors, more than the minimum of 218 needed to assure passage. But they refrained from pushing for a vote because Turkey was having its own national elections. Instead, they aimed for the fall.

Encouraged to consider the bill, the Foreign Affairs Committee approved it on Oct. 10, but by a relatively narrow 27-to-21 vote, because lawmakers were well aware that the measure could reach the floor this year.

Mr. Bush and the Turkish government intensified their opposition and within days, co-sponsors of both parties began abandoning the resolution.

Ms. Pelosi said it was the responsibility of its backers to secure the needed votes. “This is the legislative process,” she told reporters last week when asked about the furor. Its backers began reassessing their strategy and one result was the letter to the speaker on Thursday.

Even some of Ms. Pelosi’s allies said the bill’s withdrawal, while an embarrassment, may well have averted a larger problem for her had the proposal been approved, setting off problems with Turkey. Advocates of the bill predicted that Congress would eventually regret backing off in the face of a threatened backlash from an ally. “This sets a terrible example,” Mr. Hamparian said.


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The New York Times
October 25, 2007
House Delays Vote on Armenian Genocide
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON (AP) -- House sponsors of a resolution that would label as
genocide the 1915 killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks have asked
Speaker Nancy Pelosi to delay a vote on the measure because they
feared it would fail.

Support for the resolution deteriorated this month, after Turkey
recalled its U.S. ambassador in protest and several lawmakers said
they feared it would cripple U.S.-Turkey relations.

''We believe that a large majority of our colleagues want to support a
resolution recognizing the genocide on the House floor and they will
do so, provided the timing is more favorable,'' the lawmakers told
Pelosi in a letter on Wednesday.

The letter was signed by four primary sponsors of the resolution:
California Democrats Adam Schiff, Anna Eshoo and Brad Sherman, and
Frank Pallone, D-N.J.

The group said they would continue to work with leadership ''to plan
for consideration sometime later this year, or in 2008.''

The resolution had inflamed U.S. tensions with Turkey, which says the
death toll has been inflated and was the result of civil unrest, not
genocide. A member of NATO, Turkey is considered a rare Muslim ally to
the United States in its war on terrorism. A U.S.-run air base there
has facilitated the flow of most cargo to American troops fighting in
Iraq and Afghanistan.

The measure, approved earlier this month by the House Foreign Affairs
Committee, also came at a sensitive time. In recent weeks, the U.S.
has called for Turkey's restraint in dealing with attacks by Kurdish
fighters in northern Iraq.

The House resolution ''would really damage our relations with a
Democratic ally who is playing an extremely important strategic role
in supporting our troops,'' Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told a
House panel on Thursday.

Among the critics are many Democrats, including Rep. John Murtha, who
chairs the subcommittee on military spending. Last week, Murtha,
D-Pa., said his party's leaders had miscalculated support for the
resolution and predicted it would fail easily.

On Thursday, Schiff agreed the votes weren't there.

''I think the Turkish lobby has, regrettably, earned their money,'' he
said in an interview. ''I think they were successful in a campaign
that was persuasion and coercion. Unfortunately it was aided and
abetted by our own State Department.''

Schiff said it is hard to say when he'll try again.

''We want to make sure that when the measure is brought to the floor,
we're confident the votes are there,'' he said. ''I think the worse
thing would be that you take it up and you're not successful, and
Turkey argues that it's a denial of the genocide.''

A spokesman for Pelosi said the speaker ''respects the judgement'' of
the lawmakers.

Republican Leader John Boehner, who opposes the resolution, called the
debate a ''debacle'' by Democratic leadership.

''This entire situation calls their judgment into question,'' said
Boehner, R-Ohio.

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Erdogan Insists On Joint Study Of Armenian `Tragedy'
By Emil Danielyan

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has renewed his government's calls for Turkish and Armenian historians to jointly study the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, while insisting that they did not constitute genocide.

In a newspaper article published on Friday, Erdogan also condemned Armenia for openly supporting a U.S. congressional resolution that recognizes the 1915-1918 slaughter of more than one million Ottoman Armenians as a genocide. He claimed that Yerevan and the worldwide
Armenian Diaspora are politicizing the sensitive issue to `defame' Turkey, rather than to redress `the tragedy that befell Armenians duringWorld War I.'

The Armenian Foreign Ministry declined to comment on these statements.

`The truth is that the Armenian allegations of genocide pertaining to the events of 1915 have not been historically or legally substantiated,' Erdogan said, writing in the Wall Street Journal. `If the claim of genocide -- the highest of crimes -- can stand scrutiny and the facts are as incontestable as Armenian lobbies say, then the question must be asked as to why this issue has never been taken to international adjudication as prescribed by the U.N. Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide.

`Maybe more importantly, we must also ask ourselves why the Republic of Armenia is obstinately evading Turkey's offer to establish a Joint History Commission to examine together the events of 1915 through bilateral dialogue -- all the while openly supporting efforts to defame
Turkey.'

`Our sincere offer for dialogue and reconciliation is on the table,' he added. `It is incumbent on Armenia to take the next step.'

Erdogan had first made the offer in early in a 2005 letter to President Robert Kocharian sent on the eve of events marking the 90th anniversary of the start of the genocide. In his written reply, Kocharian effectively rejected it and proposed instead the creation of a Turkish- Armenian inter-governmental body that would address this and other issues of mutual concern.

Armenian government officials, backed by many local and Diaspora pundits, regard the Turkish proposal as a ploy designed to scuttle the increasingly successful Armenian campaign for international recognition of the genocide. They argue that calling the Armenian massacres a
genocide is still a crime in Turkey and that the Erdogan government has done little to abolish a relevant clause in the Turkish Penal Code.

An independent third-party examination of the bloody events of 1915 was already initiated in 2002 by a group of prominent Armenians and Turks acting under the aegis of a U.S.-backed `reconciliation commission.' In a report released in February 2003, the New York-based International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) concluded that the mass killings and deportations of Armenians `include all of the elements of the crime of genocide' as defined by the UN convention mentioned by Erdogan.

U.S. President George W. Bush has repeatedly cited the ICTJ study in his annual messages to the Armenian-American community, while declining to use the word genocide with regard to the killings. Also, the study was endorsed last April by more than fifty Nobel prize laureates from around the world.

Erdogan's article is clearly part of Ankara's frantic efforts to stave off the adoption by the U.S. House of Representatives of a resolution that calls on Bush to `accurately characterize the systematic and deliberate annihilation of 1,500,000 Armenians as genocide.' The Turkish
premier described the draft resolution as `acutely offensive and unjust to Turks' and again warned that its passage would seriously damage Washington's close security ties with Ankara.

`Let us not make a mistake that will surely strike a severe blow to a partnership we have worked so hard together to cultivate,' Erdogan warned U.S. lawmakers.

Official Yerevan welcomed the October 10 decision by the House Foreign Affairs Committee to approve the genocide bill over the Bush administration's objections. Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier this month, urging her to ignore similar objections voiced by eight former U.S. secretaries of state.

The genocide issue is apparently not on the agenda of Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian's visit to Washington which he began on Thursday with talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, a staunch opponent of the resolution. Gates was reported to say that neither he, nor Sarkisian
raised it during the meeting.

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and the work goes on in academia....
Armenian Genocide Museum & Institute
New documents on the Armenian Genocide in 1915.
19.10.2007

In the result of the consistent work during last years new photos and documents on the Armenian Genocide were revealed from different countries' state archives and private collections by various researchers dealing with the issues of the Armenian Genocide. Photos
made by Austrian military man Victor Pitchman are of great interest. Victor Pitchman was born in Vienna in 1881. He was in Turkey from 1914 till the end of the World War First. First he served in Turkish then in Austrian and German armies. He built Turkish mountain firing in Erzerum and drew war map of the South Western Asia for the German main headquarter. Being in Erzerum he witnessed Armenian slaughters carried out by the Ottoman government. There are deportation views of the Armenians in photos made by Pitchman near Erzerum. Artem Ohandjanyan, doctor of historical sciences, a resident of Austria provided these photos with the photo collection of the AGMI.

New photos were revealed also in the state achieves of the "Doutsche" bank and they were contributed to the AGMI. Meanwhile the museum collection was enriched with dozens of unprinted memoirs recorded by the survivors of the genocide.

Reminiscence "War and Peace memories" by Eric af Wirsen, military attache of the Swedish Embassy to the Ottoman Empire, contains exclusive facts on the Armenian Genocide. One of its chapters is titled as "Slaughter of one nation" where the author describes one of the greatest
crimes of the 20th century. The author witnessed the mass graves of the Armenians in the vicinity of Euphrates as well as he had direct contacts with foreign diplomats, who witnessed the massacre. Mr. Wirsen writes, "Slaughters were carried out in such ways that humanity has never seen since the middle ages".

Wirsen was informed by different consuls that the Turkish gendarmes entered houses of foreign diplomats, and without any words they shot their servants of Armenian origin. Eric af Wirsen notices that it is difficult to release the Germans from the responsibility as they did nothing to prevent the bloodshed. Mr. Wirsen also states that some German officers gave back the medals and rewards granted by the Ottoman government with the following reason they cannot accept any honors from a government carrying out such cruelties. "I join to the words of general fon Lossov who tete-a-tete told me that slaughters of the Armenians were the most terrible brutalities in the world history", wrote E. Wirsen.

As a primary source this work is important and valuable as first it was written by a representative of Sweden, a neutral state during the war, where Ambassador Morgenthau's evidences are affirmed for many times. Concluding the above mentioned chapter, Wirsen wrote "I constantly recollect cynic expression of Talaat's face when he said there is no "Armenian problem" anymore".

and politics is stuck in a rut ...

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UNEARTHING THE PAST, ENDANGERING THE FUTURE
The Economist
Oct 18th 2007
Turkey votes to invade northern Iraq; Congress considers the Armenian
genocide. The two are dangerously connected

Camera Press

STANDING before a blurred photograph of a ditch full of emaciated corpses, an elderly woman begins to cry. "The Turks are butchers," hisses another. These women are among thousands of diaspora Armenians who travel from all corners of the globe to pay tribute to their dead
at the genocide memorial in Yerevan. "Our objective is not to attack this or that country," explains a grim-faced guide. "It is to ensure recognition of the first genocide of the 20th century, that of 1.5m Armenians by the Turks."

For decades, Armenians round the world have lobbied for explicit official recognition of their point of view. Over the years, Armenian groups in America (where perhaps 400,000 people have Armenian ancestry) have persuaded 40 out of 50 states to recognise the genocide. They seemed poised to snatch their biggest trophy yet when the Foreign Affairs Committee of America's Democrat-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill on October 10th stating that "the Armenian genocide was conceived and carried out by the Ottoman empire from 1915 to 1923." But this was overshadowed, on October 17th, by another, related, vote: the Turkish parliament's decision to allow the government to clobber guerrillas of the homegrown Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) in their haven in northern Iraq.

For, even as Congress has been considering a war that is almost a century old, America's present war in Iraq has made Turkey newly vulnerable to Kurdish attacks. The de facto autonomy enjoyed by Iraqi Kurds has encouraged the PKK. Many PKK guerrillas are now attacking the Turks from bases in Iraq.

As many as 20 Turkish soldiers have died in clashes with the PKK in the past two weeks alone. The Turks have held back from retaliation, largely because they hoped that America would deal with the PKK itself. Its failure to do so, mainly because it fears upsetting its Iraqi Kurdish allies, is the biggest cause of rampant anti-American feeling in Turkey, which has been strengthening for some time (see chart). So although President George Bush warned Turkey, just before its parliamentary vote, that it was not in its interests to send troops into Iraq, the Turks ignored him. "The genocide resolution poured more oil on to the flames at the worst possible time," observes Taha Ozhan of the SETA think-tank in Ankara.

Echoes of the Ottomans The raw facts of the Armenian tragedy are not disputed. In 1915 many hundreds of thousands of Armenian civilians were deported to the deserts of Syria and Iraq. They were more than likely to die on the journey from starvation, exhaustion and attacks
by robbers or irregular fighters. Their deportation, in the view of most Western historians, fits the United Nations' 1948 definition of genocide: an action intended "to destroy in whole, or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group". That conclusion is based in part on the testimony of Christian missionaries and Western diplomats, who observed at close hand the atrocities inflicted on the Armenians and concluded that this was not just brutal deportation,
but a policy of extermination.

Turkey admits that several hundred thousand Armenians did die, but says this was not because of any centrally organised campaign to wipe them out. The deaths, it says, were a result of the chaos convulsing the Ottoman empire in its final days--a collapse accelerated by the treachery of its Armenian subjects, who had sided with invading Russian and French forces. In short, the tragedy was war, not genocide. This is the version taught to Turkish schoolchildren, who are also told that many more Turks were killed by Armenians than vice versa. Turks remember, too, that in the 1970s some 47 of their countrymen, many of them diplomats, were killed by Armenian militants.

Genocide is a tricky subject in Washington. Six weeks after the Rwandan genocide began in 1994, when 500,000 people had already been murdered for belonging to the wrong tribe, the American government still hesitated to call it what it was. The trouble with calling genocide
"genocide" while the blood is still spilling is that, under the terms of a UN convention, one is obliged to do something to stop it.

The Armenian killings incur no such awkwardness. Obviously, Congress cannot do much about a massacre that happened nearly a century ago. But that does not mean that its words carry no cost. Being branded as the precursors of Hitler "is a very injurious move to the psyche of the Turkish people," said Turkey's ambassador to Washington, before he was withdrawn for "consultations". And plenty of Americans who dismiss the Turkish account as whitewash nonetheless think that their lawmakers are fools for saying so aloud.

Turkey is a key ally in a region where America has too few. Three-quarters of the air cargo heading into Iraq passes through Incirlik air base there.

American planes fly freely through Turkish air space en route to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the American navy uses Turkish ports. Turkey provides Iraq with electricity and allows trucks laden with fuel to cross its border into Iraq. But if American politicians persist in dishing out what Turks perceive as a grave insult, it will make it harder for the Turkish government to continue co-operating so closely with America.

That is why Mr Bush urged Congress to ditch the bill. Eight former secretaries of state, from both parties, urged the same. The current secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, called Turkey's foreign minister, prime minister and president to mollify them. She also dispatched two able lieutenants to Turkey. She tried to reassure Ankara that "the American people don't feel that the current Turkish government is the Ottoman empire". Jane Harman, a Democrat who had originally co-sponsored the House resolution, has now withdrawn her support, noting that the House had already passed similar resolutions in 1975 and 1984, and that doing so again would "isolate and embarrass a courageous and moderate Islamic government in perhaps the most
volatile region in the world." Without, she might have added, saving a single Armenian.

Foreign-policy experts, too, are aghast. Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, laments the cavalier way Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House, and her Democratic cohorts are treating relations with a crucial ally. Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies frets that the bill will create "yet another pointless source of anger" against America in the Middle East. The White House has promised to do all it can to prevent the full House from voting on the resolution--though Ms Pelosi, whose Californian constituents include many rich Armenians, has promised that the measure will reach the House floor by mid-November.

Meanwhile, the Turkish government has racked up its lobbying in Washington by several degrees. If the resolution passes the full House, it has hinted, use of the Incirlik base may be denied. "Unfortunately, some politicians in the United States have made an attempt to sacrifice
big issues for minor political games," said Turkey's newly elected president, Abdullah Gul.

The hawkish army chief, General Yasar Buyukanit, gave warning that if the House bill went through, "our military relations with the US will never be the same again."

By October 17th, both Republican and Democratic congressmen were beginning to back away from the resolution. Around a dozen of them withdrew their support, and its chances of passage looked much dimmer than before.

"This vote", said the head of the Democratic caucus, "came face to face with the reality on the ground." But the damage, it could be argued, had already been done.

The Kurdish provocation Turkey is now seething with conspiracy theories about American and assorted Western ne'er-do-wells wanting to weaken and divide the country, as they did when the empire collapsed. Kurds and Armenians are connected in villainy. At the recent funeral of a
Turkish soldier killed by the PKK, a state-appointed imam declared to mourners that "the Armenian bastards" were "responsible" for his death.

All this has intensified the pressure on the mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to wade into northern Iraq soon. Threats of a Turkish invasion have helped to push world oil prices to new highs. Meanwhile the PKK, in a statement, said its fighters would defend the Kurds and their interests to "the last drop of blood".

Yet despite the chest-thumping, Turkish officials privately concede that a large-scale cross-border operation is a rotten idea. Turkish soldiers run the risk of getting bogged down, much as the Israelis did in Lebanon. And as Mr Erdogan himself acknowledged last week,
in a recent interview with the CNN news channel, "We staged 24 such operations in the past and can we say we achieved anything? Not really." In reality, a Turkish incursion would probably win the PKK fresh recruits while driving an even bigger wedge between Turkey and America. It would also provide ammunition for countries, such as France and Austria, which argue that Turkey should be given "privileged partnership" of the European Union rather than full membership.

And there lies another source of sourness. Disillusionment with the EU is reflected in polls that show support for membership among Turks is slipping from a high of 74% in 2002 to under 50% this year. Waning EU influence may, in turn, leave Turkey feeling less constrained about
plotting mischief inside Iraq.

"If Turkey goes in [to Iraq] it will become isolated, authoritarian, a very nasty place," says Soli Ozel, a political scientist at Istanbul's Bilgi University. Like many fellow liberals, he blames the current mess as much on EU dithering as on Mr Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party. Riding on a wave of sweeping reforms and economic recovery, the AK romped back to solo rule in the July elections with a bigger share of the vote.

AK should have used this mandate to tackle Turkey's most urgent problems. It might have begun with Armenia, by considering America's plea to open its borders with it. These were sealed in 1993 after the tiny landlocked state, once part of the Soviet Union, invaded a chunk of ethnically Turkic Azerbaijan in a vicious conflict over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Over the past few months the Americans have been working on a proposal calling for Turkey to establish formal ties with Armenia and to end its blockade. In return, Armenia would recognise its existing border with Turkey and publicly disavow any territorial claims, including the claim to Mount Ararat, its national symbol. A deal of that sort might have helped the Bush administration head off the genocide resolution, and could possibly have squashed it for good.

A recent poll conducted by the International Republican Institute, a pro-democracy pressure group, suggests that the people of Armenia--unlike their brothers and sisters in the diaspora--may be ready for change. Only 3% of respondents said that recognition of the
genocide was their first priority. A mere 4% listed it at all. For many, finding a job is their chief worry.

Meanwhile, Turkey has looked the other way as thousands of illegal Armenian migrants have sought work in Istanbul, the former Ottoman capital. Mutual suspicions are beginning to fade as these newcomers are recruited by Turks to care for babies and ageing parents. Armenian
tourists, too, braving accusations of treachery back home, have been heading by the thousands to Turkey's Mediterranean resorts. "Until I met a real Turk, I rather feared them," confesses Tevan Poghossian, an Armenian pundit, who runs projects to promote Turkish-Armenian
dialogue. "Now I go out drinking with them in Yerevan."

The few Turks who travel the other way can discover that they have more in common with their Armenian neighbours than they suppose. A visit to the open-air vegetable market in Yerevan reveals that many of the words for vegetables are the same (and so, too, are some of
the swear-words). As often as not, Turks who identify themselves are greeted with a big smile and even with a discount. And a simple apology for the events of 1915, without mention of the G-word, can melt the ice.

In a gesture of goodwill, Turkey this year restored a much-prized Armenian church in the eastern province of Van. Armenian officials were among those invited to attend its opening--albeit as a museum--in March. And a growing number of Turks, secure in the knowledge that Ataturk, the revered founder of modern Turkey, had no hand in the killings, are beginning to question the fate of the Ottoman Armenians. A few intrepid souls such as Taner Akcam, a historian, have even dared to call it a genocide.

Despite this burgeoning spirit of reconciliation, however, Turkey has balked at establishing formal ties and insists that Armenia must make the first move. Armenia retorts that it is up to Turkey to prove that its overtures are not designed solely to kill the genocide resolution;
to prove its good faith, Turkey should act first. Mr Erdogan's lieutenants blame the impasse on Turkey's meddlesome generals, who Insist that Armenia must make peace with Azerbaijan before it can make peace with Turkey.

It is also the army that is blocking political accommodation with the Kurds, they say. But since the AK was returned to power with 47% of the popular vote, such excuses are looking thin. If the government were sincere about democracy, it should have scrapped the notorious Article 301 of the penal code that makes it a crime to "insult Turkishness". Hundreds of Turkish academics and writers, including Orhan Pamuk, a Nobel prize-winner, have been prosecuted under this article. One of its targets, Hrant Dink, an Armenian newspaper editor, was murdered in January by an ultra-nationalist teenager who accused him of insulting Turkey. His lawyers accuse the government of covering up the affair, despite evidence that at least one rogue
security official was involved in plotting Mr Dink's death.

As long as Article 301 remains on the books, there is no substance in Mr Erdogan's call for historians, not politicians, to investigate history. As Mr Ozel points out, "Anyone who disagrees with the official line can end up behind bars." Article 301 also makes it harder for Turkey's own Armenians to oppose recognition of the genocide by foreign governments, on the ground that it is better for Turks to arrive at the truth themselves.

Instead, nationalist rage is stoked up on both sides.

Turning a deaf ear to such criticism, the government has wasted precious political capital on writing a new constitution. The current document, written by the generals after their last coup in 1980, undoubtedly needs to be replaced. Yet by insisting on provisions that would enable veiled women to attend university, the government has been accused of promoting a covert Islamist agenda.

It did not help when, overriding American objections, Turkey signed a gas-pipeline deal with Iran last July. Mr Erdogan's bent for flirting with rogue regimes in Iran and Syria, and for talking to Hamas in the Palestinian territories, may not have influenced the voting on
the genocide resolution, but cannot have made congressmen warm to Turkey either.

To make matters worse, Turkey has given warning that its strong military ties with Israel may suffer if Israel fails to stop the resolution being passed. It is threatening to sever air links between Turkey and Yerevan and to expel Armenian migrant workers if the Armenian government does not lobby on its behalf. Turkey refuses to believe that neither Israel nor Armenia has the power to influence Congress, a fact which shows "just how little Turkey understands the way our country works", moans a frustrated American official. "It also shows that Turkey lacks the stomach to take on the Americans, so it is going after an easier target, Armenia, instead."

With luck, the resolution will be shelved and Turkey, its pride saved, will rethink its policies. With luck too, it will recognise that a full-blown invasion of northern Iraq would damage its interests and further inflame Kurdish separatists. If Turkey wants to fulfil its dreams of being a regional power and an inspiring example of how Islam and democracy can co-exist, it must make peace with all its citizens, including its Kurds. And it should find a way to face up to its past. It could do worse than seek inspiration from Ataturk who, as Mr Akcam noted in a recent book, once called the Armenian tragedy "a shameful act".


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