Armenian News
IRAN AND ARMENIA FINALISE MUCH-DELAYED GAS PIPELINE DEAL, EXPORTS TO START IN OCTOBER
by Samuel Ciszuk
World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
August 29, 2008
A new deal has been reached between Armenia and Iran over the export of Iranian gas through a long-finished pipeline in exchange for Armenian exports of electricity,Upstreamreports (seeIran: 12 August 2008:). In a 2007 deal, the countries originally agreed to construct a gas pipeline and entered into a supply agreement, but gas failed to flow after the pipeline's completion by mid-2007, with unspecified technical problems on the Armenian side cited as the main cause of the standstill. The newly reached deal specifies that Iranian gas exports will start by 1 October 2008 at a rate of about 1.1 bcm/y, eventually increasing to 2.3 bcm/y. Armenia will pay Iran in electricity from a power plant close to the Iranian border at 3KWh per every cubic metre of gas.
Significance: While the recent conflict between Georgia and Russia is handy to blame for Armenia's sudden willingness to start using the Iranian import option--Armenia currently imports all of its gas from Russia through a pipeline passing Georgia--there seems to be a confluence of interests making this moment particularly opportune. Russia's Gazprom took a leading stake (57.6%) in the Russian-Armenian company that owns the pipeline, ArmRos- Gazprom, indicating that the switch to Iranian supplies--if it actually gets under way--will be in Russia's best interests too. With Armenia no longer dependent on the trans-Georgia pipeline, Russia will be free to shut down its exports to Georgia, which also supplies the country, giving it further political leverage over its neighbour.
Meanwhile, Armenia is given a golden opportunity to escape rising Russian gas export prices in favour of Iranian gas, bought from Iran with electricity at a time when Iran is in the midst of a deep electricity shortage and seems to have agreed to a more favourable pricing scheme than before (seeArmenia: 1 August 2008:). With Armenia a close ally of Russia, its large protector might not see Iran's role as Armenian supplier as a particular threat anyway, preferring for the moment to help shield its poor, but strategic ally from rising costs. However, Iran's chronic gas shortages do cast doubt over its chances of guaranteeing steady supplies to Armenia, especially later this year, when the winter kicks in.
INTERMEDIA SURVEY FINDS ARMENIANS MOST FAVORABLY INCLINED
by Samuel Ciszuk
World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
August 29, 2008
A new deal has been reached between Armenia and Iran over the export of Iranian gas through a long-finished pipeline in exchange for Armenian exports of electricity,Upstreamreports (seeIran: 12 August 2008:). In a 2007 deal, the countries originally agreed to construct a gas pipeline and entered into a supply agreement, but gas failed to flow after the pipeline's completion by mid-2007, with unspecified technical problems on the Armenian side cited as the main cause of the standstill. The newly reached deal specifies that Iranian gas exports will start by 1 October 2008 at a rate of about 1.1 bcm/y, eventually increasing to 2.3 bcm/y. Armenia will pay Iran in electricity from a power plant close to the Iranian border at 3KWh per every cubic metre of gas.
Significance: While the recent conflict between Georgia and Russia is handy to blame for Armenia's sudden willingness to start using the Iranian import option--Armenia currently imports all of its gas from Russia through a pipeline passing Georgia--there seems to be a confluence of interests making this moment particularly opportune. Russia's Gazprom took a leading stake (57.6%) in the Russian-Armenian company that owns the pipeline, ArmRos- Gazprom, indicating that the switch to Iranian supplies--if it actually gets under way--will be in Russia's best interests too. With Armenia no longer dependent on the trans-Georgia pipeline, Russia will be free to shut down its exports to Georgia, which also supplies the country, giving it further political leverage over its neighbour.
Meanwhile, Armenia is given a golden opportunity to escape rising Russian gas export prices in favour of Iranian gas, bought from Iran with electricity at a time when Iran is in the midst of a deep electricity shortage and seems to have agreed to a more favourable pricing scheme than before (seeArmenia: 1 August 2008:). With Armenia a close ally of Russia, its large protector might not see Iran's role as Armenian supplier as a particular threat anyway, preferring for the moment to help shield its poor, but strategic ally from rising costs. However, Iran's chronic gas shortages do cast doubt over its chances of guaranteeing steady supplies to Armenia, especially later this year, when the winter kicks in.
INTERMEDIA SURVEY FINDS ARMENIANS MOST FAVORABLY INCLINED
TOWARDS RUSSIA AND OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DEMOCRACY IN THEIR COUNTRY
U.S. Newswire
August 28, 2008 Thursday 10:53 AM EST
Despite a powerful Diaspora lobby in the United States, Armenians' positive feelings towards the U.S. are nearly 40 percentage points behind their feelings towards neighboring Russia. So says a survey of the small (3 million inhabitants) yet strategically located nation, conducted earlier this year by InterMedia, a Washington, D.C.- based research, evaluation and consulting organization.
The InterMedia survey found fully 90 percent of Armenians are favorably inclined towards Russia, but only 53 percent say they are so inclined towards the United States.
"The higher favorability towards Russia compared to the U.S. is not surprising," says Lyuda Andriyevska, one of InterMedia's project managers for Eurasia. "Russia has been the main strategic partner for Armenia for centuries. Currently, Russia provides landlocked Armenia
with oil and gas, invests heavily in business and infrastructure, sells weapons and supports many positions of Armenian foreign policy, the touchiest of which is its dispute with Azerbaijan over the
Nagorno-Karabakh region."
Armenia is strategically significant in the region due in part to its location at both the energy and ethnic crossroads of Europe, Asia and Middle East. With growing demand for energy resources in the world, Armenia is an important player among three regional powers -- Iran, Turkey and Russia -- all of which compete for political and economic leadership in the region.
Only slightly more than one-quarter of Armenians, 28 percent, are favourably inclined towards their northern neighbour, Georgia. "One reason is the souring of Georgian-Russian relations over the last couple of years," says Ms. Andriyevska. "Georgia serves as a lifeline for the Armenian economy, as all the inland trade with Russia goes through it. However, the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia has seriously disrupted communication and transportation of energy and food supplies to Armenia. This should serve to increase Armenians' animosity towards Georgia and perhaps even take some of the lustre off their feelings towards Russia."
The InterMedia survey also found Armenians are pro-European but less keen on NATO. Seventy percent of the population agree or strongly agree with the statement that "Armenia should join EU." NATO, on the other hand, has the support of only slightly more than a quarter of the population, 27 percent.
Although favorability toward Russia is high, there are fundamental differences in public sentiment between the two countries. The InterMedia survey finds Armenians are more optimistic about democratic changes in their country and have more faith in the power of the
electoral process than do Russians. Almost two-thirds of Armenians, 64 percent, anticipated increased chances for democracy and personal self expression after the presidential elections in February 2008; only 5 percent of the Russian population expected similar improvements in terms of democracy and self expression after their own 2008 presidential elections. (InterMedia's Russian survey took place in January 2008.)
InterMedia is a leading international media research, public opinion, evaluation and consulting organization creatively equipping clients to understand their audiences, gauge their effectiveness and target their communications in transitional and developing societies worldwide. Based in Washington, D.C., and active year-round in more than 60 countries, InterMedia helps clients understand complex issues in challenging research environments. The company's strengths include its people-area experts skilled in scientifically-based research and focused on client solutions-its vast global network of local research partners and contacts and its rich data archive of more than 670 media and opinion surveys carried out over the past 15 years.
Survey Details: InterMedia conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,000 face-to face interviews in Armenia between 22 January and 27 February 2008. Maximum margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, is +/-2.2%.
U.S. Newswire
August 28, 2008 Thursday 10:53 AM EST
Despite a powerful Diaspora lobby in the United States, Armenians' positive feelings towards the U.S. are nearly 40 percentage points behind their feelings towards neighboring Russia. So says a survey of the small (3 million inhabitants) yet strategically located nation, conducted earlier this year by InterMedia, a Washington, D.C.- based research, evaluation and consulting organization.
The InterMedia survey found fully 90 percent of Armenians are favorably inclined towards Russia, but only 53 percent say they are so inclined towards the United States.
"The higher favorability towards Russia compared to the U.S. is not surprising," says Lyuda Andriyevska, one of InterMedia's project managers for Eurasia. "Russia has been the main strategic partner for Armenia for centuries. Currently, Russia provides landlocked Armenia
with oil and gas, invests heavily in business and infrastructure, sells weapons and supports many positions of Armenian foreign policy, the touchiest of which is its dispute with Azerbaijan over the
Nagorno-Karabakh region."
Armenia is strategically significant in the region due in part to its location at both the energy and ethnic crossroads of Europe, Asia and Middle East. With growing demand for energy resources in the world, Armenia is an important player among three regional powers -- Iran, Turkey and Russia -- all of which compete for political and economic leadership in the region.
Only slightly more than one-quarter of Armenians, 28 percent, are favourably inclined towards their northern neighbour, Georgia. "One reason is the souring of Georgian-Russian relations over the last couple of years," says Ms. Andriyevska. "Georgia serves as a lifeline for the Armenian economy, as all the inland trade with Russia goes through it. However, the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia has seriously disrupted communication and transportation of energy and food supplies to Armenia. This should serve to increase Armenians' animosity towards Georgia and perhaps even take some of the lustre off their feelings towards Russia."
The InterMedia survey also found Armenians are pro-European but less keen on NATO. Seventy percent of the population agree or strongly agree with the statement that "Armenia should join EU." NATO, on the other hand, has the support of only slightly more than a quarter of the population, 27 percent.
Although favorability toward Russia is high, there are fundamental differences in public sentiment between the two countries. The InterMedia survey finds Armenians are more optimistic about democratic changes in their country and have more faith in the power of the
electoral process than do Russians. Almost two-thirds of Armenians, 64 percent, anticipated increased chances for democracy and personal self expression after the presidential elections in February 2008; only 5 percent of the Russian population expected similar improvements in terms of democracy and self expression after their own 2008 presidential elections. (InterMedia's Russian survey took place in January 2008.)
InterMedia is a leading international media research, public opinion, evaluation and consulting organization creatively equipping clients to understand their audiences, gauge their effectiveness and target their communications in transitional and developing societies worldwide. Based in Washington, D.C., and active year-round in more than 60 countries, InterMedia helps clients understand complex issues in challenging research environments. The company's strengths include its people-area experts skilled in scientifically-based research and focused on client solutions-its vast global network of local research partners and contacts and its rich data archive of more than 670 media and opinion surveys carried out over the past 15 years.
Survey Details: InterMedia conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,000 face-to face interviews in Armenia between 22 January and 27 February 2008. Maximum margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, is +/-2.2%.
PRESS RELEASE
Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, Information Services
Services Leading to the Blessing of the Holy Muron
On Tuesday, August 19, His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians, presided over the first of 40 prayer services, which will culminate in the Blessing of the Holy Muron (Chrism) scheduled for September 28 of this year. The prayer service, which begins a 40-day process of psalms, hymns, scripture readings and prayers, took place following Evening Vesper Services in the Mother Cathedral of Holy Etchmiadzin.
The cauldron, which contains the Holy Muron, was placed on the bema of the Holy Altar the previous evening, filled with pure olive oil. Pure olive oil is the first of the three primary substances that are mixed with the many additional aromatic and floral ingredients, following the blessing of which is transformed into the Muron. For the subsequent 39 days, the members of
the Brotherhood of Holy Etchmiadzin, will follow the same procedure according to the ancient Canons of the Holy Armenian Apostolic Church.
The 40-day countdown began with His Holiness ascending the Altar of Holy Etchmiadzin and reading from the Gospel of St. Mark. The Catholicos then read the main prayer dedicated to the blessing of Muron. His Holiness stated in his remarks, that he wishes for all faithful of the Armenian Church to raise their prayers to the Almighty during this period of prayer and prepar- ation for Sunday, September 28, which also happens to be the Feast of the Holy Cross of Varag.
The faithful of the Armenian Church are invited to join in prayer during these coming days as Holy Muron is prepared for use in Armenian Churches in Armenia and throughout the Diaspora.
For further updates and schedule of events surrounding the festivities, the faithful are encouraged to visit the website of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, www.armenianchurch.org, to follow the progress and learn new facts surrounding the Blessing of the Holy Muron.
Turkish Bodyguards `Preparing For' Gul's Trip To Armenia
By Ruben Meloyan
A team of Turkish security officials will reportedly travel to Yerevan this weekend to discuss security measures that would be put in place in the event of President Abdullah Gul's historic visit to Armenia.
President Serzh Sarkisian, meanwhile, has again expressed hope that Gul will accept his invitation to arrive in the Armenian capital and watch with him the first-ever game between Armenia's and Turkey's national football teams scheduled for September 6.
Gul said in televised remarks late Wednesday that he is `still considering' the invitation. `What is important is whether such a visit will be useful or not,' he said.
The Turkish daily `Zaman' reported on Thursday that the Turkish president's security detail is already preparing for his possible trip and planning to send a `forward unit' of 15 bodyguards to Yerevan. It said they would discuss with their Armenian colleagues security measures in and around the city's Hrazdan stadium where the qualifying match for the 2010 football World Cup in South Africa will be played.
`According to current plans, a group from the [Turkish] counterattack team, armed with M5 and M16 rifles, will be responsible for Gul's security during the visit,' `Zaman' said.
Another leading Turkish newspaper, `Hurriyet,' said the Foreign Ministry in Ankara is trying to arrange the security team's visit and is going to contact the Armenian government for that purpose. The paper said the Turks will either approach the Armenian embassy in Georgia or Armenia's permanent representative at the Istanbul headquarters of the Black Sea
Economic Cooperation organization.
A diplomatic source in Yerevan told RFE/RL that the Armenian side has not been contacted by Ankara as of late Thursday afternoon. Another Armenian source, who asked not to be identified, essentially confirmed the Turkish newspaper reports.
The invitation extended to Gul in June underscored a thaw in relations between the two estranged neighbors that followed Sarkisian's victory in Armenia's February 19 presidential election. The new Armenian president responded positively to Ankara's offers of a `dialogue' on problems hampering the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties. Senior diplomats from the two countries held confidential talks in Switzerland in early July.
In an interview with the Turkish daily `Radikal' made public on Thursday, Sarkisian stressed the importance of what would be the first-ever trip to Armenia by a Turkish president. `If I did not believe in the visit's importance, I would not invite Mr. Gul in the first place,' he said. `We are neighbors. We went through difficult times in our history. But Armenia is prepared for a development of our relations and expects the same from Turkey.'
Sarkisian also stated that he and his Turkish counterpart `have reached the decision-making phase.' `Those will not be easy decisions,' he said. `Those decisions will not be approved by the entire publics in Armenia and Turkey. But I am sure the majority of the publics will support
positive decisions.'
Sarkisian also indicated that Yerevan and Ankara can reconcile their conflicting proposals to set up commissions discussing issues of mutual concern. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested in 2005 that the two states form a commission of historians who would look into the 1915 Armenian massacres in the Ottoman Empire and jointly determine whether they consistuted a genocide. The Armenian government turned down the offer and came up with a counter-proposal to have this and other problems hampering a Turkish-Armenian rapp- rochement tackled by an inter-governmental body.
`The best solution is the establishment of diplomatic relations,' Sarkisian told `Radikal.' `That way we can form many subcommissions and groups within the framework of the commission to be set up by the governments.'
Sarkisian was also asked whether the Yerevan government shares territorial claims to Turkey voiced by some Armenian political groups. `I don't remember a single Armenian official speaking about territorial claims,' he replied. `But I keep hearing about that from the opposite side.'
`If that was our official policy, then we would be called not the Republic of Armenia but the Republic of Eastern Armenia,' added the Armenian president.
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