Saturday, 1 August 2009

Karabakh News


IWPR KARABAKH FOCUS
TALKS SNARLED ON "INTERIM STATUS"
Moscow meeting leaves sides no closer and many questions unanswered.
By Tatul Hakobian


Agreement on Nagorny Karabakh's "interim status", a precondition for an
internationally-brokered peace process, is the current obstacle to progress in talks
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, participants said.

Under the six-part Madrid Principles supported by Russia, France and the United
States - co-chairs of the Minsk Group of mediators - the self-declared state would
have some kind of unresolved status until a referendum could be held to decide its
long-term future.

The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Moscow just over a week ago
but no breakthrough occurred, despite intense international pressure.

"We are currently discussing the separation of certain principles from the Madrid
Principles, after which we must discuss the remaining principles. On this basis we
must start the preparation of the final agreement," Armenian president Serzh Sargsian
told a European Union delegation on July 20, following his return from Russia.

"The main element is the question of the status of Nagorny Karabakh, which must
be resolved through a legally binding expression of will. When we can give this
question a precise definition, which cannot allow dual interpretations, I think the
talks will continue more smoothly."

The Karabakh conflict broke out in 1988 with clashes between Azeris and Armenians,
who made up the majority of the population of Nagorny Karabakh but who were
included within the boundaries of Azerbaijan. The territory declared independence
unilaterally in 1991, triggering a conflict that ended with a ceasefire in 1994.

Since then the ceasefire has largely held, but there has been almost no progress
on a final resolution of the conflict. Azerbaijan and Armenia lack diplomatic ties,
while around a million Azeris and hundreds of thousands of Armenians remain d
isplaced. Their return to their former homes is another one of the Madrid Principles,
but no progress was made on that either.

"The Armenian troops must be removed from the occupied territories, and after that
the question of the return of refugees to their lands can be raised," said Elmar
Mamedyarov, the Azerbaijani foreign minister, on his return to Baku, sparking an
angry response from his counterpart in Yerevan.

"During the Moscow meeting, these questions (territory and refugees) were not
even discussed," said Edward Nalbandian, the Armenian foreign minister.

The issue is complicated by Turkey, which is engaged in a separate talks process
with Armenia over opening its own border. Ankara has said its negotiations are
linked to the progress of the talks over Karabakh, which may be driving Armenia
towards a solution.

Meanwhile, the self-declared government of Nagorny Karabakh, whose
independence has not been recognised by any country, objects that its authorities
are not included in the peace negotiations and says that its status is not negotiable.

Bako Sahakian, the leader of Nagorny Karabakh, laid out his position on July 10
before the talks even started.

"Our position is clear and remains unchanged. The independence of the Nagorny
Karabakh Republic is an established fact and is not under discussion," he said.

"Without the agreement of the people of the NagornyKarabakh Republic it is
impossible to come to any resolution. Artsakh (Karabakh in Armenian) is the major
side in the talks, and yet today is not taking part in the negotiations process, and
we have to restore this important principle."

His statement was echoed by many other political figures and social groups in
Karabakh, but the Azerbaijani negotiators said they could be included only after
the other participants had resolved all the major principles on which the talks would
be based.

According to political commentators, the two sides were discussing some kind of
exchange involving giving Azerbaijan the five regions outside Nagorny Karabakh
proper that Armenian forces either partially or entirely control, in exchange for
Azerbaijan recognising the territory's interim status, as laid out in the Madrid
Principles.

But this was unlikely to meet approval in Karabakh either.

"The territory of Nagorny Karabakh cannot be an item to trade, and if we depart
from our current situation and attempt to assess the exchange of real territory for
the recognition of a virtual and interim status, then it is clear that such an exchange
is far from adequate," said Masis Mailian, the former foreign minister in the
Karabakh government.

Former participants in the talks said the negotiations sound like they have stalled,
since the issues being discussed were similar to those that have been discussed
for the last decade or more.

"Whether they're closer or not [it's hard to say], but I can say it's more complicated
now that it's ever been," said Vardan Oskanian, former Armenian foreign minister
and a veteran of the talks process.

"There appears to be urgency on the part of the co-chair countries to resolve this
conflict. This can bring added pressure on the parties. That, together with the fact
that in the minds of negotiators and the parties, there is the issue of the
Turkish-Armenian border opening.

"This may make it difficult to reconcile differences and reach an agreement.
Azerbaijan may convince itself that Armenians now need a solution more than
they do, and they may simply raise the stakes and make a deal impossible."

Tatul Hakobian is Yerevan correspondent for US newspaper The Armenian
Reporter.


IWPR KARABAKH FOCUS
PEACE PROCESS: WHERE WE ARE NOW
A summary of progress on the road to a settlement.
By Kenan Guluzade


The Minsk Group, which is chaired by Russia, France and the United States and
aims to find a peaceful settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, has laid out
principles on which it believes the crisis should be resolved.

The principles are occasionally adjusted to reflect changes on the ground, but are
still essentially the same as those agreed in a meeting in Madrid two years ago.

"We are instructing our mediators to present to the Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan an updated version of the Madrid Document of November 2007, the
Co-Chairs' last articulation of the Basic Principles. We urge the Presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the few differences remaining between them
and finalise their agreement on these Basic Principles, which will outline a
comprehensive settlement," the French, Russian and United States presidents
said in a joint statement after the G8 summit in Italy on July 10.

So what are the Madrid Principles, and what are the two sides' positions on them?

RETURN OF THE TERRITORIES SURROUNDING NAGORNY KARABAKH TO
AZERBIAJANI CONTROL

Currently, Armenian forces control parts of the Aghdam and Fizuli regions, and all
of the Kelbajar, Zangilan, Jabrail and Gubadly regions, which are all outside the
Soviet-era boundaries of Nagorny Karabakh and which they seized between March
and November 1993. They also control the Lachin area, but this is covered by a
different point of the Madrid Principles.

This principle is supported by Azerbaijan, which wishes to regain control over its
internationally recognised borders.

In Armenia, this point raises concerns, however, since it involves surrendering the
current "security belt" around Nagorny Karabakh proper. Armenian strategists
consider the regions to be a buffer zone ensuring there cannot be a surprise assault
on the self-declared state. However, even in early rounds of talks between the two
sides, Armenian negotiators recognised that sooner or later these territories would
have to be returned to Baku's control in some way.

AN INTERIM STATUS FOR NAGORNY KARABAKH PROVDING GUARANTEES
FOR SECURITY AND SELF-GOVERNANCE.

This point is tolerated by Azerbaijan, which has repeatedly announced it is prepared
to give Nagorny Karabakh "the highest possible autonomy" consistent with its
territorial integrity.

However, both sides have concerns about the definition of this article. How long
would the interim status last? The current speculation in local media is that it could
last for 15 years, by which time a resolution of its status would have to be secured
under point 4 of the principles.

A CORRIDOR LINKING ARMENIA TO NAGORNY KARABAKH

This refers to the Lachin region, which separates the Soviet-era borders of Nagorny
Karabakh and Armenia, and which Armenians consider to be a crucial lifeline, without
which Nagorny Karabakh could be blockaded. It is currently controlled by Armenian
forces.

Azerbaijan's negotiators do not seem to have a firm opinion on the Lachin region,
since conceding a corridor is a logical side-effect of the other points, but could also
raise doubts about their country's territorial integrity. The issue of the Lachin corridor
is a potentially serious sticking point for the two sides.

FUTURE DETERMINATION OF THE FINAL LEGAL STATUS OF NAGORNY
KARABAKH THROUGH A LEGALLY BINDING EXPRESSION OF WILL.

This point also divides opinion among Azerbaijan's negotiators. Conceding a final
referendum also risks conceding independence for Nagorny Karabakh, which is
considered unacceptable. However, some commentators have expressed the
opinion that, in a popular vote, ordinary Armenians in Nagorny Karabakh might
prefer to remain in oil-rich Azerbaijan.

THE RIGHT OF ALL INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS AND REFUGEES
TO RETURN TO THEIR FORMER PLACES OF RESIDENCE.

Although this is theoretically accepted by all sides, it is a point that could prove very
hard to implement. If it addresses all the victims of the war, it cannot only apply to
Nagorny Karabakh itself. There are refugees from Armenia in Azerbaijan, and
refugees from Azerbaijan in Armenia, without beginning to consider Nagorny
Karabakh and the other territories where actual fighting occurred. Would this point
include Armenians returning to Baku or Azeris to Yerevan? How would these people
regain their old houses of flats? Who will guarantee their security?

If this point only addresses Nagorny Karabakh itself, then there is a potential sticking
point concerning the town of Shusha, which Armenians call Shushi), that was
predominantly ethnically Azeri before the war and which controls the heights above
Khankendi, the main town in Nagorny Karabakh and which Armenians call Stepanakert.

Before the war, the population of Nagorny Karabakh was 76.9 per cent Armenian
(about 145,000 people), 21.5 per cent Azeri (about 40,000 people) and 1.6 per cent
other (about 3,000 people). There are around a million refugees and internally
displaced persons in Azerbaijan.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY GUARANTEES THAT WOULD INCLUDE A
PEACEKEEPING OPTION.

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan boast that, even without peacekeepers, the ceasefire
agreed 15 years ago has been observed. However, there are regular exchanges of
fire over the line of control. Soldiers and civilians are still occasionally killed, and
peacekeepers would almost certainly be required to ensure the safety of refugees
allowed to return under point 5.

Different peacekeeping forces have been mooted, although the co-chairs of the
Minsk group are banned from providing troops under the terms of their mandate.
Italian, British, Ukrainian, Hungarian, Romanian and other forces have all been
suggested, but there is no clarity on this issue.

Kenan Guluzade is a regional expert from the South Caucasus think tank and
editor-in-chief of the www.analitika.az website.
Business New Europe
July 26 2009
Slow progress in latest Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations
Clare Nuttall in Almaty
July 27, 2009

The latest summit between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan was
followed by promises to meet again, but yielded no concrete progress
on resolving the territorial dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh
enclave.

Armenia's Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev held talks in
Moscow on July 17, and met again the following day together with
Russian President Dimitry Medvedev. Russia, which has considerable
influence in the Caucasus and has been seeking to broker a compromise
on the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, described the discussions as
"constructive."

"During today's, fourth, meeting, between presidents of Russia,
Azerbaijan and Armenia, Dmitry Medvedev confirmed the readiness of
Russia as co-chairman of the Minsk Group to continue exerting efforts
to find mutually acceptable solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh
settlement," presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko told journalists the
following day. "In our view, the meeting was very constructive," he
said, adding, however, that, "It focused on certain problems, which
remained open."

Some 35,000 people were killed in the early 1990s when war broke out
after the ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by
Armenia, declared its independence from Azerbaijan. A ceasefire
agreement was signed in 1994 bringing an end to the war, but
small-scale clashes on the border between Azerbaijan and
Nagorno-Karabakh are still frequent. Fifteen years on, no peace treaty
has yet been signed and no country has recognised the Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic's independence, though it is effectively integrated with
Armenia.

In the last year, Russia has stepped up its efforts as it seeks to
cement its influence in the South Caucasus, as well as presenting
itself in a more positive light - as a peacemaker - after the PR
disaster of the 2008 war against Georgia. The ever-present concern
that a border skirmish could escalate into full-scale conflict also
poses a threat to the region's role as a key energy transit point.

However, while Sargsyan and Aliyev are both participating in
discussions, their rhetoric back on their home territory is less
conciliatory.

Home truths

Speaking at Chatham House in London the week before his meeting with
Sargsyan, Aliyev said that independence for Nagorno-Karabakh was out
of the question and refused to rule out a military solution to restore
Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. "Nagorno-Karabakh will never be
recognised as an independent country. It is absolutely ridiculous to
expect that," Aliyev said. "A million refugees from Azerbaijan who
were the subject of ethnic cleansing policies of Armenia have a right
to return to their land."

On the Armenian side, representatives of the country's large diaspora
have spoken out against the Madrid principles, while the head of the
hardline nationalist opposition party Dashnaktsutyun party warned
Sargsyan against signing any agreement with Aliyev.

The Nagorno-Karabakh government is also dissatisfied with the
procedure. In a statement published two days before the talks, the
NKR's Foreign Ministry described the talks, from which it is excluded
on Azerbaijan's demand - as "distorted."

"Real progress in the negotiations is possible only with the Karabakh
party's equal participation in all the stages of the negotiation
process," it said.

Despite this, the economic situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has improved
somewhat in recent years, with GDP increasing by 116% between 2001 and
2007, according to the republic's statistical office. The economy has
also moved away from its previous reliance on agriculture, with that
sector's share of GDP falling from 33% in 2002 to 16% in 2007, while
manufacturing and services have increased.

In another significant development, the recent IPO of Artsakh Hydro
Power Plant, the proceeds of which will be used to build small hydro
plants in Nagorno-Karabakh, attracted investment from international
investors in countries including France, Russia, Switzerland and the
UAE. If progress towards resolving the conflict continues, it could
unlock the region's potential in several sectors, in particular
mining.

Russia is continuing to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan at the negotiating
table, with the next meeting between the two presidents scheduled for
October. However, unless the political will for a solution from Baku,
Yerevan and Stepanakert increases, progress could to remain elusive.
KARABAKH PEACE PLAN 'UPDATED'
Emil Danielyan
Armenialiberty.org
July 27 2009

International mediators have modified their proposed framework peace
agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh to increase chances of its acceptance
by Armenia and Azerbaijan, a top U.S. official said on Monday.

The three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group representing the United
States, Russia and France met in the Polish city of Krakow at the
weekend to discuss ways of pushing the Karabakh peace further forward
following fresh talks held by the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
in Moscow on July 17-18.

In a joint statement issued ahead of those talks, the presidents of
the three mediating powers said they have instructed the co-chairs to
present the conflicting parties with an "updated version" of their
basic principles of a Karabakh settlement that were formally put
forward in Madrid in November 2007.

"As directed by our three presidents in their joint declaration of
July 10, 2009, we prepared an updated version of the Madrid Document,"
the U.S. co-chair, Matthew Bryza, told RFE/RL's Armenian service,
commenting on the Krakow meeting. He described the meeting as
"productive and creative."

"We now have a chance to finalize the Basic Principles," said Bryza. He
praised Armenia's and Azerbaijan's leaders for being "constructive"
and making "significant progress" in the long-running peace talks.

"The co-chairs also express their thanks to former President [Robert]
Kocharian and Foreign Minister [Vartan] Oskanian whose thoughts
and efforts helped lay the foundation for the Madrid Document,"
added Bryza. "We have now moved beyond that document under Armenia's
current leaders, President [Serzh] Sarkisian and Foreign Minister
[Eduard] Nalbandian, who have helped elicit progress in tough but
constructive negotiations over the past year."

Sticking to the confidentiality of the long-running peace process, the
U.S. official did not specify whether the basic principles underwent
significant changes. He said only that he and fellow co-chairs Yuri
Merzlyakov and Bernard Fassier "carefully considered the views
expressed by the sides since we presented the Madrid Document in
November 2007."

Contrary to the mediators' expectations, Sarkisian and Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev failed to bridge their remaining differences
over those principles during their July 17 one-on-one discussion in
Moscow. According to Merzlyakov, the two leaders made more progress
when they met in the presence of their Russian counterpart, Dmitry
Medvedev, the next day.

"There are interesting solutions which the presidents found in the
trilateral format," Merzlyakov told the Azerbaijani Trend news agency
on July 22. "I think that this could produce a positive result in
the future." The Russian diplomat did not elaborate.

The Madrid principles call for the liberation of the seven Azerbaijani
districts surrounding Karabakh that were fully or partly occupied
by Karabakh Armenian forces during the 1991-1994 war. They also
envisage a future referendum of self-determination in Karabakh. The
Armenian-controlled disputed territory would retain its de facto
independence and a land corridor with Armenia proper in the interim.

According to some sources familiar with the negotiating process, the
main stumbling block so far has been the liberation of Kelbajar and
Lachin, two of the occupied Azerbaijani districts sandwiched between
Karabakh and Armenia. They say former President Kocharian insisted
on their return under Azerbaijani control only after the Karabakh
vote. This condition was rejected by Aliyev. Sarkisian's position on
the matter is not clear.

Meeting with Sweden's visiting Foreign Minister Carl Bildt last week,
Sarkisian indicated that the conflicting parties also have yet to
fully work out all practical modalities of the proposed referendum that
would presumably enable Karabakh's predominantly Armenian population
to legitimize its secession from Azerbaijan.

managed to lay down the foundations of
the Madrid document. "We are also thankful to President Sargsyan and
Foreign Minister Nalbandian for the considerable progress which was
reached during difficult but constructive discussions. Owing to it, we
managed to leave the Madrid document behind. We now have a possibility
to bring the Fundamental Principles to the final appearance," M. Bryza
mentioned. In his words, Azerbaijan also had a constructive position,
though "President Aliyev and Foreing Minister Mamedyarov protect
their national interest just as their Armenian counterparts do."

The CIS countries heads' regular meeting is envisaged in Chisinau
in early October during which the next meeting of the Presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible to take place. The OSCE Minsk Group
Co-Chairpersons' regional visit is expected in September during which
the circle of issues to be discussed during Sargsyan-Aliyev October
negotiations will be defined.
PLEASE TELL US THE TRUTH
By Odette Bazil, Buckinghamshire UK
AZG Armenian Daily
28/07/2009

Everyday, different newspapers present us with different versions of
the talks and negotiations held between the Leaders of our country with
those of Azerbaijan and Turkey, yet most articles are contradicted by
the negotiating parties; every day the Madrid Principles are mentioned
and either refuted or agreed by the reporters , yet no one can tell
us what - exactly - these principles are ; everyday the setting-up
of a joint committee to analyse the documents of the genocide is
reported and criticised, yet the authorities deny that agreement ;
and a map route for the opening of the borders between Armenia and
Turkey is supposed to have been drawn yet no one has seen it and no
one can describe it .

Where is the truth?

Is the Armenian Media reporting rumours and hear-says or is it engaged
in serious journalism , to inform accurately the reader about the
real facts and not using the opportunity to present the political
views of the party who enjoys their support.

Politicians , analysts , scholars , dignitaries , even school teachers
or actors are interviewed and their opinions reported daily and at
great lengths , yet the views of His Holiness , Catholicos Karekin
II , Catholicos of all Armenians , are not made known to the people
of Armenia and its children in the Diaspora.

His Holiness represents the stability and continuity of Armenia ,
the spiritual leadership in decisions of politics and defence and
the ultimate moral sanctuary and comfort whom we need every day in
our lives and more so in cases of war , despair, calamity or crucial
destiny-shaping decisions.

Decisions which have to be taken now when Armenia is at this
cross-roads and which will affect , irrevocably and forever , the lives
of every man , woman and child in our Motherland and its Diaspora.

We want to know.


IWPR KARABAKH FOCUS
A PERSONAL VIEW
For Armenians like me, the loss of a lovely home village hurts
By Sara Khojoyan


In my passport, my place of birth is listed as the Republic of Azerbaijan. Of course,
it was not the Azerbaijan of today, because I am an Armenian, but the Soviet
Socialist Republic, back in 1983, before the conflict between our two peoples
over Nagorny Karabakh.

In 1988, the troubles started and my family fled our home in an area of Azerbaijan
close to Karabakh. We have never been back.

I have many other relatives who are refugees. Although my grandparents fled the
village of Khanlar in the Dashkesan region - which was inhabited by both Azeris
and Armenians - most of my other relatives came from Zaglik, which was for
centuries purely Armenian.

In the 15 years since the ceasefire, they have lost hope that they will ever return
to the land where their ancestors are buried. They cannot get used to the politicians'
talk of a "return of territory". If they cannot go back, why should Azeris be able to?

"Our Zaglik was heaven on earth, but we understand we will never get it back. Both
sides now have what they have and you cannot turn back the clock. I had many Azeri
friends, and I am sure that they think the same. Politicians are a long way from the
common people," said my uncle, Ashot Khojaian.

In Armenia, almost everyone is connected to the Karabakh conflict. Although few men
actually fought, everyone knows someone who did. Take Mher Davoian, the editor of
the magazine where I used to work. He and a friend were the only survivors from their
division, and hid in the forests for a week, having been given up for dead.

And now, when almost every week politicians discuss the return of territory, my former
editor refuses to believe it.

"I organised an opinion poll across all of Armenia and I know that it's not just me, it's 80
per cent of Armenians who are ready to take up arms to defend what belongs to us.
This is even though I know that there won't be a second war," he said.

And he's right. Ordinary Armenians cannot countenance giving up Nagorny Karabakh.
Levon Manvelian, my future father-in-law, took three years to get over the psychological
damage he suffered in the war, when he had to gather up the pieces of his best friend.
When he hears talk of the interim status that the international mediators want to assign
to Karabakh under the Madrid Principles, he just laughs.

"Nagorny Karabakh already has a status. I don't understand why our authorities don't
stand by this. I do understand, however, what a dirty business politics is, and maybe
they don't have the power to do more than they are. But we the people are strong
enough, just like we were 20 years ago," he told me.

Ordinary people are a long way from diplomacy, and maybe do not understand the
niceties of the principles laid out for regulating the conflict. A week ago, all the
commentators in Armenia started talking about resolving the Karabakh conflict along
the lines of the Madrid Principles. People at bus stops and coffee shops across the
whole of Yerevan could be heard saying things like, "Apparently, they are going to
return the territory. This cannot be allowed to happen."

I was born on Azeri territory but I have never thought of it as my homeland. However,
I have also never doubted that the village of Zaglik, in which generations of my
ancestors were born and died, is Armenian land. It is land controlled by Azerbaijan,
but it is where my mother dreams of going, so she can visit the graves of my family.

But this does not trouble me. We are talking here about the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan. It troubles me that no one in the world seems to understand that Nagorny
Karabakh is not a part of Azerbaijan, and this is not a question of diplomacy. It is a
question of memory, and this is something we all have.

Many people do not know this, just as they do not know about Zaglik, my home, which
I will probably never see again.

Sara Khojoyan is the acting director of IWPR's Armenian office.
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