Tuesday 20 January 2015

Armenian News ...

BBC News 8 January 2015 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Azeris dream of return The "frozen" Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still simmering in the Caucasus, disrupting the lives of thousands of people. The BBC's Rayhan Demytrie reports from Azerbaijan on hardship near the front line. Gulay likes to play outside, like any other seven-year-old. She rocks back and forth on a wooden swing. Playtime ought to be safe, but she lives in a conflict zone. Gulay's home lies on the edge of the Azeri village of Gazyan, close to the line of contact with Armenian forces. Shooting incidents are common here. Her father Zomig Ahundov points to a thick brick wall built by the Red Cross to help shield his home from bullets. "We still can't use the second floor of our house - it's too dangerous. We are a family of five people and we all live in one room downstairs because it's safer," Zomig says. Walk into any house in this village and people will show cracks in their buildings which, they say, come from nearby explosions of Armenian ordnance, or bullet holes in their walls. Shrapnel-damaged wall in GazyanLocals in Gazyan blame some damage to buildings on shots from the Armenian side Arch-enemies Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over the disputed, mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the 1990s. The autonomous republic within Azerbaijan - created during Soviet rule - was populated mainly by ethnic Armenians. They wanted union with Armenia when the Soviet Union broke up. As many as 30,000 people were killed in the war. Azerbaijan lost the territory as well as seven adjacent regions. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced. For centuries there was rivalry in the region between Christian Armenians and Turkic Muslims. Little progress has been made towards a lasting settlement for Nagorno-Karabakh since a ceasefire deal reached in 1994. It is often referred to as a "frozen" conflict, but military and civilian casualties are frequently reported. Tensions escalated last summer, with skirmishes and casualties on both sides. In November, Azeri forces downed an Armenian helicopter. Three servicemen were killed. Armenian authorities said they were on an unarmed mission, and vowed to retaliate. Armenia's defence ministry spokesman, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, warned of consequences "that will be very painful for the Azerbaijani side and will remain on the conscience of the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan". But Azerbaijan takes a different view. "Two enemy helicopters attacked our positions. As a result one of the helicopters was shot down," says Azerbaijan's Deputy Defence Minister, Lt Gen Kerim Veliyev. "We've sent our message that if such air actions continue, any enemy target will be destroyed. We are not eliminating the military option. If the enemy rejects a peaceful solution we can free our territories militarily. We are ready for that." Peace deal? Azerbaijan's leadership has repeatedly threatened to take back the lost lands. Last August, President Ilham Aliyev tweeted that "the flag of Azerbaijan will fly in all the occupied territories". Peace negotiations mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States, have seen little progress. Meanwhile, oil-rich Azerbaijan has been spending heavily to boost its military capability. The country's annual defence budget stands at $3.7bn (£2.5bn). Armenia's defence budget was $447m in 2013. According to the latest Global Militarisation Index , published by the German think tank Bonn International Centre for Conversion (BICC), Armenia and Azerbaijan are among the top 10 most militarised nations in the world. Both countries buy their weapons from Russia. But while there is a risk of renewed conflict, Russia's involvement makes the military option less likely, according to political analyst Arastun Orujlu of the East-West Research Centre in Baku. "I don't think the Azerbaijani government is preparing for a military resolution of the Karabakh conflict. They are quite realistic. Armenia is a military ally of Russia at least for the next 48 years. It has two Russian bases on its territory," he said, referring to the long leases agreed for the bases. However, Mr Orujlu says the Azeri authorities are watching the instability in Ukraine closely. "Azerbaijan sometimes feels itself alone on an international level," he says. "For supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, Russia is getting strong [Western] sanctions. And Azeris are asking, 'Why doesn't Armenia get the same reaction from the international community?' That's what makes the Karabakh conflict more significant today ." New housing for IDPs in AzerbaijanNew apartments on the edge of Baku now house people displaced by the war Azeri children in schoolAzeri children learn of the lost areas at an early age in school New homes On the outskirts of the capital Baku, new housing complexes are appearing for thousands of families displaced by the conflict. Azerbaijan has one of the highest rates of internally displaced people ( IDPs) in the world. After years of people living in rundown Soviet-era buildings and tent cities lacking running water, the government launched a state programme to rehouse IDPs. New apartment blocks give a sense of permanence to the status quo. But anyone in the street will tell you that they still dream of going home. "The houses are really nice but we want to go back to our land as soon as possible," says Naringul Guliyeva, walking her grandson to a nearby newly built school. There, the children learn to recite the names of the seven regions occupied by Armenia. They are taught about their right to return - even if it will take war, or another generation of waiting, to achieve it. al-jazeera OPINION Russia's next acquisition Luke Coffey If Russia wanted to exploit the situation in Georgia's Samtskhe-Javakheti province, there's no better time than now. It is no secret that Russia views the South Caucasus as being in its natural sphere of influence. In light of Russia's annexation of Crimea, and on the back of Moscow's recent treaties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia , Georgians have legitimate reasons to believe that Russian activity in their country will only increase in 2015. Consequently, many are keeping a close eye on the Georgian province of Samtskhe-Javakheti - a majority ethnically Armenian region located just three hours' drive from the nation's capital city of Tbilisi. Causing instability in Samtskhe-Javakheti would achieve two goals for Moscow. First, it would further dismember the territorial integrity of Georgia. The Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are already under Russian occupation. By some accounts they are closer than ever to being annexed by Moscow. An independent Samtskhe-Javakheti, or one under Russian influence, would divide Georgia down the middle. A perfect storm Armenian separatism in Samtskhe-Javakheti might not be as vocal as it was only a few years ago; but there is still a fear that Moscow could easily reenergise separatist movements in the region. Secondly, and more importantly for Russia, bringing the region under Moscow's influence would make a land corridor between Russia and Armenia, via South Ossetia, one step closer. This is important because Russia maintains a sizeable military presence in Armenia. The bulk of the Russian force is based in the city of Gyumri and consists of approximately 5,000 soldiers and dozens of fighter planes and attack helicopters. People & Power - Georgia: Corridor of power Russia has long had the difficult challenge of supplying these forces, especially since Georgia and Turkey refuse transit rights. This has left a reliance on Iran, which for obvious reasons, is not ideal for Russia. It is not only for Russia that Samtskhe-Javakheti is strategically important, but also for Europe. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline, carrying oil and gas respectively from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, passes through the province. As the possibility of more Central Asian oil and gas finding its way to Europe becomes likely, these pipelines bypassing Russia will become a vital part of Europe's energy security. In addition, the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway, which is due to open later this year, passes through Samtskhe-Javakheti. It is expected that this rail line will eventually transport 3 million passengers and over 15 million tons of freight each year. There is a perfect storm brewing in the region and if Russia wanted to exploit the situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti it could not ask for better timing than now. Russian sympathies First is the fact that many Javakheti Armenians have Russian sympathies. Until its closure in 2007, the Russian military base there was the single biggest source of employment. It has also been reported that Moscow is issuing Russian passports to ethnic Armenians living in the region. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline, carrying oil and gas respectively from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, passes through the province. This in itself is telling; Russia issued passports to Abkhazians and South Ossetians just before its 2008 invasion of Georgia and also issued passports to Crimeans ahead of the annexation of Crimea last year. But Russia is only part of the problem. Many of the grievances Javakheti Armenians have are a result of poor policy making by the central government in Tbilisi. Many Javakheti Armenians feel that their culture and language are discriminated against. There has been a decrease in the quality of education among the Javakheti Armenian population. The bilingual education program of teaching in both Georgian and Armenian has been described as a "total failure" because there are not enough qualified teachers with proficiency in both languages. Unemployment is high in Samtskhe-Javakheti and future economic prospects in the region look bleak. Many Javakheti Armenians travel to Russia or Armenia for work. Economy strained Thanks to the drop in the value of the Russian ruble - almost one-third of its value in the past year - remittances have also decreased. The unusually harsh winter in the region is placing a further strain on economic activity. Then there is the issue of citizenship and immigration. Many Javakheti Armenians do not have Georgian citizenship. Instead, many hold Armenian passports because finding seasonal work in Armenia and Russia is easier this way. Until recently, Armenian citizens were allowed to live and work inside Georgia without any special authorisation as long as they crossed the border back into Armenia at least once a year. Last September this changed. Now Javakheti Armenians without Georgian citizenship can only stay in Georgia for three months at a time. Longer term residency permits are costly. These policies breed animosity and form a perfect storm that could easily be exploited by Russia. It does not have to be this way. Sensible policies can be pursued by Tbilisi to address the legitimate grievances of the Javakheti Armenians . The West can make it clear to Russia that further meddling in Georgia's domestic affairs could lead to additional sanctions. The last thing the South Caucasus needs is another sectarian conflict. Luke Coffey is a research fellow specialising in transatlantic and Eurasian security at a Washington DC based think tank. He previously served as a special adviser to the British defence secretary and was a commissioned officer in the United States army. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy. RFE/RL Report Russian Soldier `Confesses' To Slaughtering Armenian Family Satenik Kaghzvantsian 13.01.2015 A runaway Russian soldier admitted murdering six members of an Armenian family in Gyumri after being detained overnight, a senior Armenian police official said on Tuesday. Hunan Poghosian, a deputy chief of the national police, shed little light on Valery Permyakov's possible motives and gave few other details of his questioning by Armenian and Russian investigators. Armenian prosecutors announced, meanwhile, that Russia will have custody of Permyakov at least until the end of a criminal investigation into the gruesome crime. It remained unclear, however, whether the pre-trial probe will be conducted by Armenian or Russian security bodies. "In terms of information subject to publication, [Permyakov] deserted his military post with an assault rifle and two loaded magazines," Poghosian told a news conference in Gyumri. "He claims that he wanted to stroll around the city and entered that house by accident, without knowing whether or not there are people inside it." Poghosian, who led a manhunt for the Siberian conscript on Monday, would not say what led him to shoot and kill a Gyumri couple, their son and daughter-in-law, a 2-year-old granddaughter, and an unmarried daughter. The couple's six-month-old grandson was stabbed but survived. The police general said only that Permyakov most probably did not personally know any of the slain members of the Avetisian family. The Avetisians' modest house is located around 2 kilometers from the Russian military base in Gyumri where the shooting-spree suspect had served for less than two months. One of their neighbors, Manvel Yeghiazarian, described the victims as "very quiet, kind and hard-working people" who "never caused trouble." "We just don't know why it happened," the middle-aged man told RFE/RL's Armenian service (Azatutyun.am). Like other neighbors, Yeghiazarian insisted that he heard no gunshots shortly before the Avetisians were found dead on Monday morning. Permyakov was detained by Russian border guards in Armenia shortly after midnight, while trying to cross the border into Turkey dressed in civilian clothing. He was handed over to the Russian base. The soldier was kept there on Tuesday while being questioned by Russian military officials and Armenian law-enforcers. Armenia's Office of the Prosecutor-General announced shortly after Poghosian's news conference that Permyakov will not be handed over to Armenian law-enforcement authorities pending investigation. In a statement, it argued that Russia's constitution prohibits the extradition of Russian citizens to foreign states. The statement also said that the probe of the killings is being jointly conducted by Russian and Armenian law-enforcement bodies. Poghosian likewise spoke of a "joint investigative team" leading the probe. He went on to claim that Russian military officials "find it expedient to transfer the case to the Armenian side." "It's just that Armenian and Russian prosecutors are now figuring out necessary legal procedures," he added. Poghosian dismissed Armenian government critics' suggestions that the Russian side is keen to keep custody of Permyakov in order to cover up the crime. "They have come here to conduct an objective investigation and punish all those who bear responsibility for the crime," he said, referring to an ad hoc Russian Defense Ministry commission that flew to Gyumri on Monday night. Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian met with the commission members led by Russian Deputy Defense Minister Arkady Bakhin on Tuesday. He made no statements afterwards. "Everything depends on what the suspect will say and how he will explain what he did," Ohanian told reporters before the meeting. "We will see to it that ... the guilty individual or individuals are punished." "I think that it's not appropriate to politicize this or look for any deterioration of our relations because have a fairly high-level relationship and dialogue with the Russian Federation. Our military cooperation is at a particularly high level," he added in reference to a domestic uproar caused by the Gyumri massacre. Armenian civic activists say the fact that Permyakov was taken into Russian military custody also amounts to a breach of Armenia's sovereignty. Some of them point to a clause in a 1997 bilateral treaty regulating Russian military presence in Armenia. It stipulates that Russian military personnel committing crimes outside the base in Gyumri shall be dealt with by Armenian law-enforcement bodies and courts. Another article in the treaty upholds Russian jurisdiction over offenses registered inside Russian military facilities in Armenia. With Permyakov set to be charged with not only killing the six Armenians but also deserting his unit, Russian officials might invoke this clause. ARMENIANS PROTEST KILLINGS BY RUSSIAN SOLDIER The Moscow Times Jan 14 2015 Thousands of protesters took to the streets of the Armenian city of Gyumri on Wednesday, demanding that a Russian soldier who admitted to killing six members of a local family be brought to justice in their country, the Interfax news agency reported. Valery Permyakov, a soldier deployed at Russia's military base in Gyumri, was detained by Russian authorities Tuesday when attempting to cross the border into neighboring Turkey. He was later handed over to his Russian military commander and admitted to the killings, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. Permyakov's return to his military base prompted fears among the local population that he would not be held responsible for his crimes. Demonstrators gathered in front of the military base, the Russian consulate and Gyumri's regional administration building, Interfax reported. "The issue surrounding Permyakov's transfer to Armenia has not been not settled," Interfax quoted Raffi Aslanyan, the prosecutor of Armenia's Shirak province, as saying. "The issue is on the agenda." The Armenian Prosecutor General's Office has said that under Russia's Constitution, Russian citizens detained by Russian authorities on suspicion of having committed a crime cannot be handed over to another country, Interfax reported. It remains unclear what prompted the soldier to commit the massacre, whose victims included a 2-year-old. RIA Novosti reported that Permyakov had entered the family's home on Monday night because he was thirsty. A 6-month-old baby who survived the attack is currently being treated for stab wounds in a hospital. Armenian lawmakers had said the incident would spark debate about Russia's military presence in the country. VIOLENCE ERUPTS AROUND RUSSIAN CONSULATE GENERAL IN GYUMRI Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia Jan 15 2015 Mass protests have erupted all over Armenia over the murder of a family of six in Gyumri by Russian soldier Valery Permyakov. A large crowd gathered at the regional prosecutor's office in Shirak. The most grave situation is around the Russian Consulate General in Gyumri, where activists and police officers started fights. The police are guarding the Consulate General, protesters are throwing stones, smoke and light grenades are exploding in the area, TASS reports. AZERBAIJAN VOWS TO FURTHER USE DRONES TO MONITOR MOVEMENT OF NK ARMENIANS APA, Azerbaijan Jan 12 2015 Baku, 12 January: The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry commented on the Armenian media reports that today flights of drones of the Azerbaijani armed forces over the front line were registered. In reply to APA news agency inquiry, the press service of the Defence Ministry said that Azerbaijan uses every military hardware at its disposal across own sovereign territories - drones, helicopters, planes, satellites, etc. "It is not a novelty for anyone as well as for Armenia that has occupied our lands. We are not thinking of asking the separatist and puppet regime what to use and not to use on our own territories. The armed forces have used every military devices and means in armament and will use from now on in order to monitor the movement of the aggressor," the ministry said. [The above was translated from Azeri] AS EXPECTED, IMF APPROVES FURTHER SUPPORT FOR VULNERABLE ARMENIAN ECONOMY IHS Global Insight January 12, 2015 by Venla Sipila The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 22 December completed the first review of Armenia's economic performance under its current Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. This allows Armenia to withdraw SDR11.74 million (special drawing rights; USD17 million) in the framework of the SDR82.2-million arrangement, approved in March. The Board also concluded its Article IV consultation with Armenia, endorsing the previous staff appraisal. Key pillars of Armenia's Fund-supported transition programme remain monetary policy geared towards inflation targeting, exchange rate flexibility, and fiscal policy that allows for higher spending in the near term, following underspending last year, but also secures longer-term fiscal sustainability via a stronger revenue base. Cautioning of several threats to economic performance, both of domestic and external origin, the Fund Board identifies substantial, yet manageable risks to Armenia's IMF programme. Among the key vulnerabilities of the economy is the wide current-account deficit. Consolidation of the external imbalances has faced obstacles with the significant negative impact of the Russian downturn on exports and remittance inflows. Among the positives mentioned by the Fund Board in relation to management by Armenian officials of the recently intensified external financial market pressures is the implementation of daily limits to foreign currency auctions. Significance:The positive conclusion to the Board review was expected, given Armenia's fairly convincing track record of IMF programme implementation, as well as the earlier encouraging staff assessment (see Armenia: 3 October 2014:Positive IMF staff assessment promises support for fragile Armenian economy). Then again, especially given the heightened risks related to the overall economic performance and the current account deficit, additional concessional external financing was also extremely needed. Armenia's economic and financial vulnerability is underlined by the persistent regional geopolitical tensions. The sharp weakening of the Russian rouble also exerts downward pressure on the dram. Meanwhile, the IMF assessment also highlights the still-vast need for structural reforms to support growth potential, reduce dollarisation, create jobs, reduce poverty and improve the business environment. media,max.am MOODY'S DOWNGRADES ARMENIA'S BOND RATING TO BA3 AND CHANGES OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE January 16, 2015 09:44 "The key drivers for the downgrade are the following: 1) Armenia's increased external vulnerability due to declining remittances from Russia, an uncertain outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI), an elevated susceptibility to exchange rate volatility, and expected pressure on foreign exchange (FX) reserves; 2) The country's impaired growth outlook, compounded by negative growth spillovers from Russia, weak investment activity, and constraints on trade with countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) that are expected from Armenia's recent EEU accession. In a related action, Moody's has also lowered the local-currency bond and deposit ceilings to Ba1 from Baa3, the foreign-currency bond ceiling to Ba2 from Ba1, as well as the foreign-currency deposit ceiling to B1 from Ba3. The short-term foreign-currency bond ceiling and the foreign-currency deposit ceiling remain at NP", Moody's Investors Service press release says. "The first driver of the downgrade is Armenia's increased external vulnerability driven by declining remittances from Russia and risks to expected FDI inflows. Remittances represent about 15% of GDP, with over 90% of the total stemming from Russia. Given the sharp recession expected in Russia, the adverse impact of reduced remittance inflows on the country's balance of payments will potentially put pressure on Armenia's FX reserves, which were at 4.5 months of import cover at the end of 2014. Moreover, Armenia's position as a significant net international borrower exposes the currency to elevated depreciation risk. Approximately 83% of Armenia's government debt is denominated in foreign currency, mostly in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and US dollars. The Armenian dram's depreciation of over 15% since November 2014 has the potential to put additional pressure on Armenia's FX reserves, which remain subject to intervention by the Central Bank of Armenia to counteract excessive volatility. The second driver of the downgrade is pressure on Armenia's economic growth prospects, which is compounded by the negative growth spillovers from Russia's economic downturn. Moody's expects that Russia's GDP will contract by 5.5% in 2015, weakening Armenia's economic activity given its historically strong correlation with Russia's growth cycle via remittances and trade channels, with Russia accounting for 23% of total Armenian exports. Further exacerbating the slowing dynamics for potential growth -- excepting some more active sectors such as the information technology industry -- are Armenia's weak investment activity and its slow productivity growth since the global financial crisis, in addition to its adverse net migration dynamics', Moody's Investors Service press release says.

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