Armenian News... A Topalian... Armenia was ranked 112th among 163 countries in the 2017
PanArmenian
June 1 2017
Armenia slides in Global Peace Index over 4-Day War
Armenia was ranked 112th among 163 countries in the 2017 Global Peace Index published by the Institute for Economics and Peace today (June 8).
Armenia has dropped 2 positions against last year (110), the 4-Day War against Azerbaijan in April 2016 cited behind the decline.
“The fighting resulted in the deaths of up to 200 people, reflected in both countries’ scores for number of deaths from external conflict. Similarly, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP has increased in both countries. While most countries in the region improved their scores in all three domains, this did not indicate significant progress in the resolution of ongoing conflicts,” the report says.
Armenia’s regional neighbors were ranked as follows: Georgia – 94th, Azerbaijan 132nd, Turkey -146th and Iran – 129th.
Iceland preserved its status as the most peaceful country, while Syria ended up in the bottom list.
Reuters
June 1 2017
Armenia, Azerbaijan closer to war over Nagorno-Karabakh than at any time since 1994 - ICG
By Margarita Antidze
TBILISI, June 1 The former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region than at any point since a ceasefire brokered more than 20 years ago, the International Crisis Group said.
Fighting between ethnic Azeris and Armenians first erupted in 1991 and a ceasefire was agreed in 1994. But Azerbaijan and Armenia have regularly traded accusations of violence around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Azeri-Armenian border.
Clashes over control of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies inside Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenians, have intensified in the past three years and turned into a violent flare-up of the conflict last April, when the International Crisis Group (ICG) said at least 200 people were killed.
It said any descent into all-out war could draw in regional powers, which include Russia and Turkey - closely allied to Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively.
Since mid-January this year, deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and anti-tank weapons have occurred and May saw a significant increase, including reports of self-guided rockets and missiles used near densely populated areas along the contact line.
Efforts to secure a permanent settlement of the conflict in the South Caucasus, which is criss-crossed by oil and gas pipelines, have failed despite mediation led by France, Russia and the United States, known as the OSCE Minsk Group.
"A year after Nagorno-Karabakh's April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire," the ICG said in a report titled "Nagorno-Karabakh's gathering war clouds".
"While violence remains at a relatively low boil, any escalation quickly could spin out of control," the think-tank, which works to prevent conflict, said.
The ICG, which based its report on the findings of analysts who had talked to residents and observers on the ground, said the settlement process had stalled, making the use of force tempting, at least for tactical purposes, and both sides appeared ready for confrontation.
"These tensions could develop into larger-scale conflict, leading to significant civilian casualties and possibly prompting the main regional powers to intervene," the ICG said.
The ICG said that Russia remains the most influential foreign player, yet its role is complex.
"It is prima inter pares in the Minsk Group, but also chief arms supplier to Azerbaijan and Armenia, both of whom suspect Russia is more interested in expanding its influence in the region than in resolving the conflict," the group said.
The Minsk Group is part of the efforts by the OSCE European security watchdog to find a solution to the conflict.
According to the report, Armenia – concerned about Nagorno-Karabakh's security and angered by Baku's increased assertiveness – insists on a lowering of security risks before substantive talks can start.
It said Azerbaijan – frustrated with the longstanding status quo and concerned that additional security measures could further cement it – insists substantive discussions cannot be delayed.
Government officials in Armenia and Azerbaijan had no immediate comments on the report. (Editing by Alison Williams)
EurasiaNet.org
June 2 2017
Report: Armenian Military Planning To Push Deeper Into Azerbaijan
by Joshua Kucera
Armenia has decided that if fighting again breaks out with Azerbaijan, it will attempt to take the offensive and seize more Azerbaijani territory. That's the scoop from a new report from the International Crisis Group.
The report , Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds, summarizes the political, diplomatic, and military developments since last year's "April War" between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It convincingly makes the argument that "Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire."
From The Bug Pit's perspective, the most intriguing news from the report is that: "[d]e facto Nagorno-Karabakh has even declared its readiness, if attacked, to advance deeper into Azerbaijan’s densely populated territory along the Line of Contact to gain a new security belt and strengthen its hand in future negotiations."
Recall that last April's fighting saw the first time territory has changed hands between the two sides since 1994, when Azerbaijan seized the strategic heights of Lala Tapa on the southern edge of the line of contact.
Now, apparently, Armenia -- though it fully controls Nagorno Karabakh, as well as a security zone two-and-a-half times as large around the disputed region -- may want to push its advantage.
"Toward the end of the winter, an internal consensus emerged within the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh leadership that – in the event of an Azerbaijani attack – the Armenian side should not only defend their positions, but also attempt to advance deeper into Azerbaijan," the report said, citing unnamed government and military officials from the de facto Nagorno Karabakh government.
"Preliminary planning by Nagorno-Karabakh-based military suggests advancing 15km beyond the established Line of Contact, which, they believe, would force the enemy to abandon hostilities, or at a minimum establish a new buffer zone that could break the enemy’s will to conduct regular attacks and become a new negotiating bargaining tool," the report adds.
In another bit of news, the report also cited Russian officials -- again unnamed -- acknowledging that they wanted to have a military presence in Karabakh. While both Armenians and Azerbaijanis have long suspected that motive behind Russian offers to set up international peacekeeping, it's still noteworthy to hear it from a Russian official. (One of the few areas on which the two sides agree is that neither wants a Russian military presence in the region.)
The report also provides a little glimpse at the effect that the war had on daily life in Karabakh, where news on the ground is hard to come by. "During the escalation, the de facto authorities called up the vast majority of Nagorno-Karabakh’s male population, most of whom remained in the trenches for at least the next two months," the report notes.
Anyway, you don't need The Bug Pit to tell you that the whole report is an essential read for getting up to date on the biggest security threat in the region. Read it here .
http://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-idUSL8N1IY402
Armenpress News Agency , Armenia
June 1, 2017 Thursday
Any attempt of Azerbaijan to implement its threats will have
extremely dangerous consequences, first of all, for Azerbaijan
– Artsakh MFA
Head of the Information and Public Relations Department of the
Question:Recently, the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan has accused the
Armenian side of shelling the Azerbaijani territory and threatened to
strike an artillery blow on the NKR settlements. How would you comment
on this statement?
Answer:The Defense Ministry of the Republic of Artsakh has already
refuted this statement of the Azerbaijani side. We, in turn have
repeatedly noted that by accusing the Armenian sides of violating the
ceasefire regime the Azerbaijani authorities, in fact, try to conceal
their responsibility for escalating the tensions on the Line of
Contact between the armed forces of Artsakh and Azerbaijan and
undermine the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs aimed at the
settlement of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict exclusively by
peaceful means.
As for the threats of Azerbaijan to shell the settlements in the depth
of the territory of the Republic of Artsakh, this is an extremely
irresponsible statement.
It should be noted that it is not for the first time that the
Azerbaijani side makes such statements. Thus, back in April 2016, the
Azerbaijani Defense Minister threatened to launch missile strike on
Stepanakert, the capital city of Artsakh.
It seems that the Azerbaijani side does not fully realize the
seriousness of its actions and statements, since any attempt to
implement such threats will have quite predictable and extremely
dangerous consequences, first of all, for Azerbaijan itself.
AzerNews, Azerbaijan
June 2 2017
Risks of war in Nagorno-Karabakh higher than in previous decades
By Rashid Shirinov
Armenia and Azerbaijan – the two parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are closer to war than at any point since a ceasefire brokered more than 20 years ago, the International Crisis Group said.
For over two decades the two South Caucasus countries have been locked in conflict, which emerged over Armenian territorial claims. Since the 1990s war, Armenian armed forces have occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions.
The clashes over control of Nagorno-Karabakh have intensified in the past three years and turned into a violent flare-up of the conflict last April.
The reports said any descent into all-out war could draw in regional powers, which include Russia and Turkey - closely allied to Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively.
“Since mid-January 2017, deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and anti-tank weapons have occurred with varying degrees of intensity; May saw a significant increase, including reports of self-guided rockets and missiles used near densely populated areas along the line of contact,” the report notes.
Not a day goes by without Armenia’s ceasefire breaking and provocations with the use of large-caliber machine guns, mortars and other weapons. The Armenian side constantly shells Azerbaijani settlements located in the frontline regions, thus threatening the lives of peaceful Azerbaijani citizens living there.
Although the OSCE Minsk Group, chaired by Paris, Moscow and Washington, is working to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for over two decades, its activities have brought no breakthrough results so far, and ICG analysts also note this.
“Efforts to ensure a lasting settlement of the conflict in the South Caucasus, which is crossed by oil and gas pipelines, failed, despite the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group,” the ICG stated.
The ICG, which prepared its report based on the insights of analysts who spoke to residents and observers on the ground, noted in its report that the settlement process has stalled, and both sides appear ready for confrontation.
“A year after Nagorno-Karabakh’s April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire,” the report notes. “While violence remains at a relatively low boil, any escalation quickly could spin out of control.”
Since the meetings of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in Vienna and St. Petersburg, which took place after the April 2016 clashes, the negotiation process came to the dead end due to the denial of Yerevan to continue serious talks.
Baku has repeatedly voiced readiness to settle the conflict through direct negotiations with Armenia with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. However, the Armenian side is constantly trying to make up reasons to avoid a constructive dialogue and preserve the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The ICG report also suggested that Russia remains the most influential foreign player, but noted that the country’s role is complex: “Russia is a co-chair in the Minsk Group, but also chief arms supplier to Azerbaijan and Armenia, both of whom suspect Russia is more interested in expanding its influence in the region than in resolving the conflict.”
The report also stated that Azerbaijan – frustrated with the longstanding status quo and concerned that additional security measures could further cement it – insists that substantive discussions cannot be delayed.
Earlier, Daniel Coats, the Director of U.S. National Intelligence stated that potential for large-scale hostilities in Karabakh will remain in 2017.
168 Hours, Armenia
May 31 2017
CoE launches investigation over Azerbaijan’s corruption scandal at PACE
The Council of Europe launched investigation over the corruption scandal at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) involving Azerbaijan, BBC reports. Some PACE members are accused of doing favours for Azerbaijan. In particular, there are suspicions that Azerbaijan influenced PACE’s rejection of 2013 report: during that time PACE rejected a report by German Social Democrat MP Christoph Strässer, which deplored human rights abuses in Azerbaijan and urged the authorities there to release political prisoners.
According to some reports, Azerbaijan offered bribe worth more than 2.5 million USD to one of PACE members Luca Volontè for the report to be rejected. Three top international human rights lawyers Sir Nicholas Bratza from the UK, a former president of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), Jean-Louis Bruguière, a top antiterrorism judge from France and Elisabet Fura, a Swedish former judge at the ECHR, will investigate the PACE corruption allegations and will report their findings by the end of 2017.
Azerbaijan denied all charges. The European Stability Initiative (ESI) published a report in December 2016 according to which some parliamentarians in PACE had engaged in political lobbying for Azerbaijan. There were claims that some received Azerbaijani payments.
In March Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland wrote to PACE President Pedro Agramunt, urging him ‘to establish an independent external investigation body without any further delay’. Many PACE MPs supported this demand who stated that the PACE integrity was threatened by ‘serous and credible allegations of grave misconduct’.
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