Thursday, 14 September 2017

RES PUBLICA AM Non-Governmental Organization Goals and objectives

Res Publica AM NGO was founded to facilitate solving of vital and very specific problems facing public administration system and private companies of Armenia. Application of the methodology, an exclusive property of the organization, enables short-term, mid-term and long-term forecasting of the main vector of global geopolitical process development, with high precision. For instance, application of the methodology has enabled predicting that Hillary Clinton will not be elected as a president, two years before the presidential election in USA, as well as making beforehand public assertion on escape of former president Yanukovich from Kyiv and inevitability of the following process of disintegration of Ukraine, results of independence referendum in Scotland. The only reliable criteria for verification of accuracy of forecasting can be solely its compliance with the following events that is the future events. This is the only way to check in practice the efficiency of methodology applied for forecasting. Accurate forecasting of geopolitical process provides noticeable advantages both to state and private businesses that have respective methodology. Prior knowledge of key aspects of expected developments in interstate relationships enables neutralization or minimization of potential risks in advance, and in contrast, to gain maximum benefits, ensuring own security, especially in military and economic fields. Confirmation of conflict zones emerging in parallel with development of geopolitical process, forecasting of territorial coverage of these, analysis of the nature of external and local interests enable beforehand selection of transit ways bypassing these zones, specific revision of relationships with states involved in conflicts, thanks to which prior to activation of conflict and during its whole process it is possible to affect its course in one way or another, for the purpose of maximum safeguarding of own security and economic interests. Forecasting of geopolitical developments is also directly related to the problem of gaining potential maximum profit within the context of expected fluctuations of international financial, stock and commodity markets. In case of Armenia, the most important issue today, both from military-political and economic perspectives, is to find out what will be the changes of exclusive influence zone of Russia, especially on the territory of former USSR, within coming three-five years. Based on clarifications on the issue, the authorities of Armenia will be able to develop respective strategy for resolving of Artsakh conflict and make clear choice of potential allies and enemies, building the relationships with these on a qualitatively new basis. As of now, analysis of situation leads to preliminary conclusion that Russian influence zone in South Caucasus and Central Asia can significantly reduce, which will have serious effect on the fate of Armenia.

Organization of systematized and continuous work towards this end is especially important during upcoming 3-5 years, since internal patterns of geopolitical process will lead to a situation, where South Caucasus and neighboring regions will end up in the epicenter of structural and content transformation process, which will also carry the risk of activation of old conflicts and initiation of new ones. In the context of the above-mentioned, Armenian professional, business and government circles will have to consider the need for development of means preventing resumption of Artsakh conflict or ensuring unconditional victory in case of resumption, moreover, also for the case, if Russia will have to discontinue its military presence in Armenia. Generally, for mentioned period there are two main issues Armenia needs to solve in priority order: (1) harmonizing the choices of its development paths with new requirements deriving from general context of global geopolitical changes, and (2) development and rolling out of its own plan for regulation of Artsakh conflict, which will ensure maintenance of current territorial integrity of Artsakh, on one hand, and on the other hand, will not include a risk of resumption of war. In any case, while developing roadmaps for ensuring security and development perspectives of the country, Armenian professional and government circles have to take into consideration, that although elimination of military and political influence of Russian in our region does not proceed from the interests of Armenia, still future maintenance or suspension of such presence does not depend on Armenia. Besides, irrespective of perspectives of maintenance of military, political, economic and cultural influence Russian has had up to now, the main objective of Armenia is reaching the goal of special friendly relationship with Turkic states and different Turkic ethno-political units. To reach that goal there can also be used the existing contradictions and competition between different Turkic states and ethno-political units. Also, solving of this issue is a priority, since in case of possible withdrawal of Russia from the region, a new balance of existing powers and interests will develop here, which will require certain time. Before final development of such balance there will be a transition phase, during which there can begin military conflicts and in such case Armenia, surrounded by territories with large Turkic population, will appear in an extremely unfavorable situation, if it does not undertake respective measures beforehand.

Professional solving of above-mentioned issues can be ensured stage by stage, through application of the methodology that is at disposal of the Organization. If respective activities are initiated right now, then already in the end of November or beginning of December there will be available a draft short-term description of regional manifestations of geopolitical developments and 3-4 draft options of national plan of Artsakh regulation. As a result of studying of geopolitical process and implementation of monitoring during 2018, it will be possible to provide mid-term forecast of on-going processes and develop a solid proposal for national plan of Artsakh regulation. Moreover, some of the options developed within the framework of that project will envisage reunion of Armenia and Artsakh, while the rest – recognition of Artsakh independence by Armenia. Choice of either option will be based on peculiarities of data obtained as a result of studying of geopolitical process and monitoring and conclusions.

To ensure proper level and accuracy of monitoring and analysis of geopolitical process it will be necessary to conduct trips to several states and conflict or potentially conflict zones that have special importance within the context of our national interests.
Implementation of this initiative can also have commercial application starting from second phase, since its results, especially in terms of timing of conflicts’ emergence and potential involved territories, will one way or another relate to economic interests of foreign states and large and medium private companies.

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