TURKEY, ARMENIA ARE LIKELY TO EASE CONFLICT
By Paul Richter
Los Angeles Times
April 4 2009
President Obama is to visit Turkey in a few days, and the expected
deal would allow him to point to progress toward reconciliation
Reporting from Washington -- Turkey and Armenia are likely to announce
a deal soon aimed at easing their conflict, diplomats said Friday in
a development that would sweeten President Obama's visit to Turkey
next week.
The two countries are expected this month to announce an agreement
to resume official contacts and reopen borders that have been closed
since 1993, said the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity,
citing the sensitivity of the subject.
The likelihood of a breakthrough would allow the president to praise
progress toward reconciliation as he stops in Ankara, the Turkish
capital, and Istanbul on a two-day visit aimed at strengthening ties
to an ally the U.S. needs for help in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
But a deal between Armenia and Turkey could spell disappointment for
Armenian Americans who want Obama to fulfill his campaign pledge to
declare that the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks beginning
in 1915 was a genocide.
With substantial progress toward rapprochement, Obama is likely to
postpone a genocide declaration in a presidential proclamation April
24, the annual remembrance day. The White House is expected to argue
that under the circumstances, the use of the term "genocide" in the
proclamation would anger Turkey and threaten the talks.
Ankara contends that the deaths were the result of war, not planned
genocide.
In London, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday
acknowledged that his country is headed toward better relations
with Armenia.
"We have taken steps toward such a decision," he said at a news
conference. "We have made ourselves ready."
To show its goodwill toward the U.S., Turkey has deployed ships
to fight piracy off Somalia and promised further help in Iraq and
Afghanistan. And Turkey's government radio and television service
this week began Armenian-language radio broadcasts.
However, Erdogan was adamant that the deaths nearly a century ago
were not the result of genocide.
Talks between the two countries intensified last fall after President
Abdullah Gul became the first Turkish leader to visit Armenia.
Diplomats said the announcement could come before Obama's visit
to Turkey on Monday, or else on April 16, when the Turkish foreign
minister is scheduled to visit Yerevan, the Armenian capital, for a
regional meeting.
Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said an announcement
April 16 would be "almost as good" for Obama if he is looking for
a way to justify the politically difficult decision to postpone a
genocide declaration.
Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy, said it would be difficult for Obama to label the mass
killing a genocide after visiting Turkey for two days to strengthen
bilateral ties. "It would be like saying 'I love you,' and then,
a day later, saying 'I don't like you.' "
Obama administration officials have said in response to questions
about their plans on the genocide resolution that their focus is on
helping improve relations between Turkey and Armenia. A White House
spokesman said Friday that he had no information on an impending deal.
MR. OBAMA AND TURKEY
New York Times
April 4 2009
President Obama has wisely decided to visit Turkey during his first
official trip to Europe. The United States needs Turkey's cooperation
-- in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as with Iran and efforts to broker
Middle East peace. But there are also very worrying trends in Turkey's
relationship with Europe and its internal politics.
Mr. Obama must do all he can to help reverse those trends and anchor
Turkey more firmly in the West.
The Justice and Development Party scored an impressive re-election
in 2007 after pursuing market-oriented policies that brought economic
growth and more trade ties with the European Union. That conservative
Muslim party also expanded human rights and brought Turkish law closer
to European standards.
Those reforms have since stalled -- partly because of opposition
from civilian nationalists and generals who still wield too much
clout. (The trial of 86 people accused of plotting a military coup
is a reminder of the dark side of Turkish politics.) But Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan also seems to have lost enthusiasm
for the European Union bid and the reforms that are the price of
admission. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has been especially
unhelpful, making clear that he will do all he can to keep Turkey
out of the European Union. Mr. Obama must persuade Mr. Sarkozy and
others that admitting Turkey -- a Muslim democracy -- is in everyone's
interest. And he must persuade Ankara that the required reforms will
strengthen Turkey's democracy and provide more stability and growth.
We are concerned about Mr. Erdogan's increasingly autocratic
tendencies. His government's decision to slap the media mogul
Aydin Dogan with a $500 million tax bill smacks of retaliation
against an independent press that has successfully exposed government
corruption. Ankara's willingness to help rebuild schools in Afghanistan
is welcome. But the situation there is dire, and NATO also needs more
troops and needs access to Turkish military bases to facilitate the
transport of American soldiers and equipment into Afghanistan and
out of Iraq.
Ankara has played a positive role, mediating indirect talks between
Israel and Syria. With Washington's encouragement, Mr. Erdogan could
also use his relationships with Iran, Sudan and Hamas to encourage
improved behavior.
Turkey's cooperation with Iraqi Kurds has vastly improved. There are
also reports that Turkey and Armenia may soon normalize relations.
We have long criticized Turkey for its self-destructive denial of the
World War I era mass killing of Armenians. But while Congress is again
contemplating a resolution denouncing the genocide, it would do a lot
more good for both Armenia and Turkey if it held back. Mr. Obama,
who vowed in the presidential campaign to recognize the event as
genocide, should also forbear.
The Bush administration's disastrous war in Iraq fanned a destructive
anti-Americanism in Turkey. Mr. Obama's visit is likely to soothe
hostile feelings. But he must go beyond that to secure a relationship
with an important ally and an important democracy in danger of
backsliding.
ANALYSIS: OBAMA VISIT TO TURKEY NO AFTERTHOUGHT
PR-Inside.com
April 4 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama's stop in Turkey is hardly
an afterthought, a "while I'm in the neighborhood" visit.
For starters, he wants to mend relations strained when the United
States went to war in Iraq six years ago. Ankara's Islamic-rooted
government denied Washington's request to use Turkish territory to
invade Iraq from the north. But Turkey also is in line for thanks
for trying to bring peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
Turkey is the only predominantly Muslim country in NATO, an alliance
stalwart and America's best friend in the Islamic world. Obama,
completing a European trip, arrives Sunday and undoubtedly will
reprise his message from a town hall meeting Friday in France.
"We must be honest with ourselves. In recent years, we've allowed
our alliance to drift," he said at that appearance.
Turkey maintains a small military force in Afghanistan, part of the
NATO contingent working with U.S. troops to beat back the resurgent
Taliban and deny al-Qaida a safe haven along the largely lawless
territory that straddles Afghanistan's border with Pakistan. Turkey's
participation carries enormous symbolic importance because it is
the only Muslim country with a presence in the fight against Islamic
extremism.
In talks with Turkey's president, Abdullah Gul, and prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Obama will try to sell his strategy for
Afghanistan and Pakistan. He should find welcoming ears, given the
new U.S. focus on melding troop increases with civilian efforts to
better the lives of people in both countries.
"Obama may be able to create momentum for help from a broader sector
of nominal U.S. allies in the Muslim world," said Jeffrey Martinson,
a historian and political scientist at Meredith College in North
Carolina.
"The fact that he's visiting the Turks at the end of this major
European trip is a nice homage to them," Martinson said, noting that
uppermost on Turkey's agenda is gaining membership in the European
Union.
The new president has pushed for Muslim diplomacy.
In his inaugural address in January, Obama assured the Muslim world
that "we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your
fist." He has made early telephone calls to friendly Arab leaders
and sent special envoy George J. Mitchell to the Middle East on a
"listening tour.
Obama's declaration that he will close the prison for suspected
terrorists Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, was seen as a move to address a
chief source of ill will among Muslim nations since Sept. 11, 2001.
Obama's father and stepfather were Muslim and he spent part of his
childhood in Indonesia, a largely Muslim country. Throughout the
campaign, Obama, who is Christian, fought false Internet rumors that
he is a Muslim.
Turkey is one of only two key Muslim countries with cordial relations
with Israel. The Turks, along with the Egyptians, are working with
France in trying to maintain a cease-fire and broker a permanent truce
between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian faction that rules the Gaza
Strip. That is essential to America's pledge to spare no effort in
establishing peace between the ancient antagonists and establishing
a Palestinian state.
Beyond that, Turkey has shepherded contacts between Israel and Syria,
where a successful outcome could entice Muslim nations across the
Middle East into accepting Israel's right to exist.
Despite the likely good will, Obama must finesse the tangled issue
of Turkey's history with Armenia. Historians estimate that up to
1.5 million Armenians were killed by Ottoman Turks leading up to and
during World War I, an event widely viewed by many scholars as the
first genocide of the 20th century. Turkey denies that the deaths
constituted genocide, claiming the toll has been inflated and the
casualties were victims of civil war and unrest.
"The Armenian genocide is not an allegation, a personal opinion,
or a point of view, but rather a widely documented fact supported
by an overwhelming body of historical evidence," Obama said in a
January 2008 statement on his campaign Web site. "America deserves a
leader who speaks truthfully about the Armenian genocide and responds
forcefully to all genocides. I intend to be that president.
So far, Obama aides refuse to say how he will deal with the legacy
of that statement while in Turkey. Nor would they predict his stance
on a resolution to be introduced soon in the House that describes
the killings as genocide. His visit to Turkey also is uncomfortably
close to the annual April 24 Armenian remembrance day.
"The smartest thing on Armenia is to try to ignore what he said in
the campaign," Martinson said.
Then there is Iran. Turkey's eastern neighbor is accused by the
United States and most of Washington's European allies of trying
to develop a nuclear weapon. The Turkish government supports Iran's
right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful use but wants Tehran to
be transparent about its nuclear program and favors dialogue.
That goes along with Obama's efforts to open a diplomatic front with
Iran and the message from this past week's Group of 20 summit. At
that meeting, leaders said Iran must open up its nuclear program and
support its claim that it does not intend to build a bomb.
Los Angeles Times
April 4 2009
Turkey awaits Obama with mixed emotions
Turks are excited about his visit, but they don't want him to bring up
touchy subjects and belittle their country.
By Laura King
8:46 AM PDT, April 4, 2009
Reporting from Istanbul, Turkey -- It seems Barack Obama's face is
everywhere these days, gazing out from posters on practically every
street corner.
That's because one of Turkey's largest banks has appropriated his
image for an advertising campaign that cheekily plays off the crisis
enveloping U.S. financial institutions. In the campaign's TV ads, an
actor playing the president says ruefully, "If only our banks were
like this one."
Obama's planned visit to Turkey beginning Sunday night, his first as
president to a predominantly Muslim country, is being greeted with
eagerness and excitement here -- but also with a trademark dose of
prickly nationalism.
The stopover is viewed with pride as an affirmation of Turkey's
importance as a bridge between East and West, a moderate and
strategically positioned NATO ally with the ability to mediate with
hard-line Muslim governments. For a partnership bruised by the
perceived highhandedness of the Bush administration, particularly
during the run-up to the Iraq war, the visit is also seen as a
much-needed balm.
"Maybe Turkey needs the U.S., but no one should forget for a moment
that the U.S. definitely needs us too," said Emrah Goksu, a
24-year-old student watching the crowds go by in Istanbul's Taksim
Square.
During the visit, hot-button issues such as Kurdish aspirations, human
rights and Turkey's denial that ethnic Armenians were the victims of
genocide early in the last century are likely to stay well in the
background. But even veiled references to such controversial matters
will present plenty of opportunities for outbursts of indignation,
especially from right-wing politicians and their supporters.
Human rights groups and others, on the other hand, fret that diplomacy
will prevent the new president from raising issues they believe need
public airing but are branded as taboo.
"What I want to know is whether Obama thinks of Kurds as terrorists,
as we are always being called here," said Serhat Baglas, a trucker
from the mainly Kurdish town of Kars. "I want to know whether he sees
us as equals, as people."
Draconian security measures, together with a traditional willingness
by police to rough up demonstrators, probably will prevent
anti-government protesters from airing their views within the
U.S. president's sight and hearing.
In Ankara, the capital, Obama is scheduled to address parliament --
considered a great honor for a foreign leader -- and visit the
mausoleum of Turkey's founding father, Kemal Ataturk.
Even before it takes place, though, the visit has provided a reminder
of the near-cult of personality surrounding Ataturk, which is viewed
uneasily by Western governments and human rights groups as an
instrument of repressing free speech and free expression.
The reverence for Ataturk, who largely created Turkey's secular system
of government, is so extreme that criticism of him can draw legal
prosecution or the threat of it. It has spurred in part the repeated
blockage of YouTube by authorities, lest irreverent videos posted on
the site impugn his image.
Last week a magazine superimposed Obama's head on a famous photograph
of Ataturk extolling the virtues of the Latin alphabet he had just
imposed to replace Arabic script, a gesture meant to propel Turkey
into a more modern Western milieu. In the original picture, Ataturk,
clad in a business suit, is gesturing at Latin letters on a placard.
But almost as soon as it hit the newsstands, the magazine, MediaCat,
had to hastily post a notice on its website explaining that the image
was not meant as a reference to Obama being in a position to provide
Turks with any sort of tutorial on Western virtues, but rather to
invoke the spirit of change the U.S. leader embodied for his own
people.
Obama's visit comes when many Turks are disillusioned over the
multitude of obstacles to their nation's bid to join the European
Union. The ruling Justice and Development Party, which has made EU
hopes a policy centerpiece, suffered a rebuke in municipal elections
last week, seeing its margin of victory shrink compared with national
elections in 2007.
Nationalist parties have long hammered away at the government of Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accusing it of kowtowing to the West in
hopes of gaining EU acceptance.
Perhaps mindful of that, Erdogan seems to have been seeking to appear
more independent-minded and less inclined to do the West's bidding. In
January he angrily stalked out of a session with Israeli President
Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. And
last month Erdogan criticized the prospective choice of Danish Prime
Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as the new chief of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization.
In Turkey, as across the Muslim world, there was fury over the 2005
printing in Denmark of cartoons of the prophet Muhammad. Turkey has
also complained repeatedly about Denmark allowing a Kurdish-language
TV station to broadcast from there.
Despite a sense of longtime grievance directed at the West in general
and the United States in particular, Turks tend to see the new
American president as fresh, young and energetic. Many make approving
note of his well-traveled background and his ethnic heritage,
including, of course, his Muslim father.
"We hope he will be a symbol of change all over the world," said
27-year-old Suzan Kose.
In a country where polls in recent years have indicated an
overwhelming degree of anti-American sentiment, many commentators
described the visit as an opportunity for the United States to turn a
new page not only with Turkey, but also the Muslim world.
"Obama seems to have understood the importance of gaining Turkey,"
columnist Murat Yetkin wrote in the daily newspaper Radikal. "Or more
importantly, of not losing it."
the Trail with Barack Obama
April 4, 2009 Saturday 1:29 PM EST
Turkey Hoping Obama Will Fulfill Campaign Promise
Apr. 4, 2009 (Today With President Barack Obama delivered by Newstex)
-- FT: Turkey is to make a concerted diplomatic push to resolve a
long-standing dispute with Armenia. Ankara hopes its efforts will not
only improve relations with Yerevan but also convince Washington to
step back from a decision that could affect US-Turkish ties.
Only days before President Barack Obama visits Turkey, the state
broadcaster TRT yesterday launched Armenian language radio programmes
- a gesture of goodwill to its neighbour.
Mr Obama has long promised to classify the 1915-1923 massacres of up
to 1.5m Armenians on present day Turkish soil as genocide. He faces a
test on April 24, the Armenian day of remembrance, when the US
president traditionally issues a statement. Meanwhile, 89 members of
the US House of Representatives have backed a resolution to recognise
the killings as genocide.
Turkey's successful effort to defeat a similar resolution in 2007
focused on warnings the US risked its continued use of an airbase in
Incirlik - a logistics hub for Iraq.Will Obama officially recognize
Armenian genocide?
WSJ: When President Barack Obama visits Turkey tomorrow, millions of
Americans hope that he will fulfill a campaign promise by preparing
the Turkish government for official American recognition of the
Armenian genocide of 1915-23.
No American president since World War II has come into office with a
stronger understanding of the facts about this terrible chapter in
history. And no president has a greater track record of speaking
plainly about it: As a presidential candidate, Mr. Obama argued
forcefully throughout the campaign that "America deserves a leader who
speaks truthfully about the Armenian genocide and responds forcefully
to all genocides."
His words reflected a powerful personal commitment. In 2006, for
example, our ambassador to Turkey, John Evans, was recalled for using
the term "genocide" to describe the events of 1915-23. In a letter to
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on July 28 of that year, then
Sen. Obama described the official U.S. position on the events of
1915-23 -- which is not to describe them as a genocide -- as
"untenable." He reminded Ms. Rice that "the occurrence of the Armenian
genocide in 1915 is not an 'allegation,' a 'personal opinion,' or a
'point of view.' Supported by overwhelming evidence, it is a widely
documented fact."
"Words matter," as Mr. Obama said on Feb. 16, 2008. And genocide has a
particular power, encompassing within a single word a crime of
unsurpassed barbarity -- the effort to destroy an entire people. When
Holocaust survivor Rafael Lemkin coined the term during World War II,
he drew on the Ottoman campaign to annihilate the Armenians, in which
over 1.5 million perished, as a paradigmatic example. It is no wonder
that the International Association of Genocide Scholars and all
credible historians (outside Turkey) have agreed that this was the
first genocide of the 20th century.Keith Ellison of Minnesota, the
first Muslim elected to congress, talks about the significance of
Obama's trip to Turkey
Agence France Presse, France
April 4 2009 3:01 AM GMT
Obama seeks to lure Turkey back towards West
by Hande Culpan
ANKARA, April 4 2009
Barack Obama will make his first foray into the Muslim world next week
when he visits Turkey, a trip analysts say is aimed at pinning down a
long-time ally Washington fears is slipping from its grasp.
While Turkey hopes the two-day visit will strengthen ties strained by
the Iraq war, Obama is expected to push a bigger agenda for a country
bordering Iran and Iraq as well as Europe and Syria.
"There is a growing sense in Washington that the United States is
losing Turkey," said Soner Cagaptay from the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy.
Cagaptay said that Washington and Ankara had been sharply at odds in
recent years over hot-button issues such as how to deal with Iran's
nuclear programme, the rise to power of the radical Palestinian
movement Hamas in Gaza, and Sudan.
Obama intends to "give Turkey... a bear hug from the West" by coming
to Turkey immediately after attending European Union and NATO summits,
he added.
"Symbolically, he is telling the whole world that this is a European
trip and that Turkey is a part of that, in a way dropping the idea of
NATO, Europe and (Turkey's) EU accession as an anchor with which to
tie Turkey to the West."
While Turkey was long regarded as one of the United States' closest
allies in the Muslim world, many observers detected a cooling of ties
during George W. Bush's presidency.
An overwhelming majority of Turks were opposed to the US-led invasion
of Iraq while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his
Islamist-rooted government were notably critical of Bush's war on
terror.
"I believe that President Obama must redefine terror and terrorist
organisations in the Middle East," Erdogan said in a recent speech at
the World Economic Forum in Davos, hinting that the new leader should
review US policy toward Hamas and other militant groups blacklisted as
terror outfits.
"And based on this new definition a new American policy must be
implemented in the Middle East," he added.
Cengiz Aktar, a foreign relations expert from the Bahcesehir
University in Istanbul, stressed that Turkey should not misinterpret
Obama's visit as a sign that Washington would agree to Turkey's every
demand or move.
Erdogan's "Islamist-rooted government needs to change its stance"
regarding Sudanese President Omar al-Beshir, subject to an
international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Darfur, and
Hamas whose stated aim is to destroy Israel, he said.
Obama is scheduled to arrive in Turkey late Sunday ahead of official
talks in Ankara on Monday, a day before flying to Istanbul where he is
expected to visit a 17th century Ottoman mosque.
Many have touted Turkey, the only Muslim member of NATO, as the
possible stage for Obama's promised address to the Muslim world, but
Cagaptay said that would not fit in with the visit's dominant theme.
"The (US) emphasis is no more Turkey's Muslimness or Turkey being part
of a larger Muslim World but that it is a European country that is
part of the West that happens to be Muslim," he said.
Opinion polls have shown that Obama is massively more popular among
Turks than Bush although his standing could be severely tested late
this month when he is expected to deliver a proclamation on whether to
label Ottoman World War I-era mass killings of Armenians as
"genocide".
Mensur Akgun, a foreign relations expert from Istanbul's Kultur
University, warned that Obama's bid to foster closer cooperation would
suffer if the president fulfills his election promise to recognise the
1915-1917 killings as genocide -- a label Ankara rejects.
"That would damage bilateral ties, hamper debate inside Turkey on the
killings and hit Ankara's dialogue process with Yerevan to resolve
their differences," he said.
Obama's visit, Cagaptay said, provides Turkey the chance to get a
recognition of its importance for the United States and "steal Obama's
heart" before his proclamation on April 24 -- the 94th anniversary of
the start of the massacres.
"Turkey is the only NATO country that borders Iraq and Iran -- one is
a problem that America wants to put away, the other a problem that
America wants to tackle," he said.
"It is a country that borders the Black Sea and the Caucasus, an area
in which Washington is trying to figure out what to do. It is a
central hub for US operations in Afghanistan and beyond."
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