Tuesday 12 May 2009

Armenian Border News‏

Turkish Newspaper Claims to Have “Road Map” Details
[ 2009/04/24 | 13:19 ] important politics
Anahit Shirinyan


Today’s issue of Sabah, a Turkish daily newspaper, features an article
that presents what it alleges to be the five main points in the
recently signed Turkish-Armenian “road map” leading to the
normalization between the two nations. The five points are as follows:

* Armenia must recognize the Kars Agreements signed between SSCB and
Turkey. The agreement is not open to renegotiation
.

[what happened to no pre-conditions?]

* Third-party nations may also join the commission of historians which
will handle the genocide accusations.

* The borders will be opened between the two countries and economic
agreements necessary for commerce will be completed.

* Both nations will first off mutually accredit the Tiflis ambassadorship,
and later will open embassies in both Ankara and Erivan.
[ a poor start to a new relationship]

* Agreements in the road map which necessitate the approval of the
parliament will be brought to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey.
[great delaying tactic]

The Sabah article goes on to say that according to information it as
received, the issue regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh mountain region was
not included in the agreement. However, it was noted that the Karabakh
mountain issue will remain connected “de facto” to the road map which
will include parallel steps to be taken
. An authority described the
Karabakh issue by referring to the example of Cyprus and Turkey’s
accession to the EU; “Cyprus is not a prerequisite, however it is a
reality, just as the Karabakh issue is.”

“The agreement may be announced in May in connection to the Minsk
Group,” according to a high level official that the paper does not
name. Sabah reports that this same official stated, “It may be
announced in May or even September, but at least the process has
begun.”

Sabah adds that lower and higher level committees will be established
for the normalization of relations between the two nations. The lower
commission will deal with such issues that fall under the titles of
the border, the 1915 incidents, commerce, establishing diplomatic
relations, customs and transportation.
WHAT IS KARS AGREEMENT?
Armen Manvelian
AZG Armenian Daily
28/04/2009
Armenia-Turkey


Armenian-Turkish last statement has kicked up a fuss in Armenia. We can
underline that there is no neutral and impartial analysis here. Trying
to fill up the gap here, "Azg" daily publishes so-called Kars agreement
that according to the Turkish press is one of the preconditions that
the official Ankara puts forward for improvement of Armenian-Turkish
bilateral relations and opening of the border
. And in this situation
the main question is - what is Kars agreement and what subject does
it touch upon?

Once more we want to underline that it is not clear yet if the Kars
agreement is a precondition or not, but we want to note that it is
signed on October 13, 1921, between Turkey, on the one hand, and Soviet
Republics of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, on the other hand. This
multilateral agreement was signed in the presence of Russian delegation
representatives and was actually the reflection of the Russian-Turkish
agreement signed in March of 1921. Foreign Minister Asqanaz Mravian
and Minister of Internal Affairs Petros Makintsian signed the
agreement on behalf of Soviet Armenia. After one year of signing
the agreement it was ratified by the Transcaucasian three republics
and the ratification documents were handed to the Turkish side in
Yerevan. Practically, the Armenian-Turkish present-day border has been
marked by this agreement. It is the only agreement that regulates
the relations between the two countries. Subsequently, a memorandum
of using drinking and irrigation water on Armenian-Turkish border,
and also other documents were signed on the basis of this agreement.

People, who are against this agreement's reaffirmation, mention that
it is against our claim and with this agreement we actually recognize
modern Turkey's territorial integrity. In 1991, when Armenia proclaimed
its independence, it was announced that the newly independent Armenia
is the legal successor of the Soviet Republic. It stands to reason
that the third republic recognizes all agreements signed by the
Soviet Armenia.

Besides, in March of 1991, when Armenia became a UN member, the
Armenian authorities actually recognized the territorial integrity
of the UN member-countries. It means that Armenia has already de
jure recognized the neighboring Turkey's territorial integrity
for several times. Consequently, the clamor set up by the Armenian
political parties is only a PR and is delayed from the aspect of
international law.

However, the Kars agreement has defects as well. In particular,
it is underlined in the agreement that under concept of Turkey the
territories are kept in view that are involved in the National Oath
adopted by the Ottoman Parliament in Costandinopolis (Istanbul)
on January 28, 1920. It means that Armenia taking into account
the above-mentioned can renounce this agreement, because according
to so-called National Oath such territories were involved in the
borders of Turkey that today are not part of it and belong to Iran and
Iraq. Besides, the Kars state was out of the borders of that Turkey.

Therefore, the agreement needs detailed and impartial discussion and
analysis to understand if it is advantageous or not.

Nevertheless, I think that Armenia should step boldly forward and
carry on an active dialogue with Turkey that will not only solve the
issue of the border but also will create a new political situation
in the whole South Caucasus and will strengthen Armenia's position
in the international scene.

"Azg" daily will touch upon the Kars agreement in detail in its
future issues.

The complete text of Kars agreement is available only in Russian. You
can read it on our website's Russian section.


IWPR
KARABAKH EYES ARMENIA-TURKEY THAW WITH SUSPICION
The recent warming in the relations of the two estranged neighbours
provokes ambiguous reactions in Nagorny Karabakh.
By Karine Ohanian in Stepanakert

In the Armenian enclave of Nagorny Karabakh, there is only one topic of
discussion right now: the possible restoration of the ties between Armenia
and Turkey, opening of the borders, and what it all means for people here.

With the Swiss playing the role of mediators, Armenia and Turkey on
April 23 announced they had agreed on a so-called road map leading
towards normalisation of relations, broken off by Turkey in 1993.

Political parties, NGOs and local authorities in Nagorny Karabakh have
reacted by maintaining that the problem of Armenian-Turkish relations
cannot be resolved aside from the Karabakh conflict.

They say the border issue, acknowledgement of the 1915 Armenian
genocide and the problem of Nagorny Karabakh's status must be solved
in one package.

The unrecognised republic, which has a population of about 140,000,
has been demanding independence from Azerbaijan since 1988.

At the beginning of the Karabakh conflict, Turkey - which hotly disputes
the scale of the killings of 1915, as well as use of the term genocide
- proclaimed itself Azerbaijan's "elder brother" and in 1993 imposed a
blockade on Armenia.

Many Armenians continue to regard Turks and Azerbaijanis as members
of the same nation, associating both with the terrible events of 1915.

Therefore, political experts in Nagorny Karabakh view the problem of
Armenia-Turkey relations and the Karabakh issue as elements of a
single national issue.

"It's a very tricky situation for Karabakh, since we place Armenia-Turkey
and Armenia-Azerbaijan relations in one bracket," Hrachia Arzumanian,
a local expert on security issues, told IWPR.

Arzumanian says local people were surprised to hear that Armenia and
Turkey had agreed on a road map towards better relations just before
April 24, when Armenians traditionally commemorate the events of 1915.

They had been expecting to hear the word genocide in a speech by United
States president Barack Obama that day. He had promised to use the term
during his presidential campaign. In the event, Obama used the Armenian
phrase mets yeghern instead, which means great massacre.

"Now this trump card gives them [the Americans] a good excuse to draw
back from recognition of the genocide," Arzumanian continued.

"Another strange thing here is whether Turkey has made this step forward
towards warming relations without preconditions and whether Karabakh
will pay the price for this."

David Babaian, head of information for the Nagorny Karabakh president,
Bako Sakahian, doubts the entity will be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish
-Armenian reconciliation.

On the contrary, "the thaw in Armenia-Turkey relations simply rules out the
rhetoric of one-sided concessions to Azerbaijan", he said.

"It's in Turkey's interests to emerge as the main geopolitical actor in the
South Caucasus; but it must do so without setting any preconditions,
because this undermines that whole process," he went on.

The information chief noted that in the Azerbaijan-Karabakh conflict, if the
balance of power tilted too far against the entity, "this threatens not only us,
but Armenia too. The Armenian authorities know this, so I think the [peace]
process is for the sake of all Armenians and for Karabakh's sovereignty
as well".

Not everyone is convinced that Nagorny Karabakh stands to benefit from a
rapprochement between Yerevan and Ankara, however.

"I am against the border reopening right now, on the eve of anniversary of
the genocide, and I'm afraid that in taking this step Armenian diplomacy is
losing its advantage," David Ishkhanian, a representative of Armenian
Revolutionary Federation, ARF, in Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorny
Karabakh), said.

Ishkhanian said Azerbaijan and Turkey remained united in pursuit of their
anti-Armenian policy.

"It's time to reopen a 'Karabakh front' in diplomacy and unite the efforts of the
diaspora, Armenia and Karabakh towards reaching our common goals,"
Ishkhanian said.

Meanwhile, April 24, the 94th anniversary of Armenian holocaust, was
marked by extraordinarily active and crowded rallies in Nagorny Karabakh.

People lit candles all night long while youth organisations arranged a
torch-lit procession, which ended with burning of the Turkish flag
- notwithstanding the protests of law-enforcement agencies.

A large number of Nagorny Karabakh residents gathered at the memorial
to the genocide victims in the capital Stepanakert in spite of rainy weather.

"This year, especially with regard to recent political developments, I was
particularly eager to take part in the commemoration of the genocide and
tell the whole world about the necessity of its recognition," Anush Gavarian,
of the Club of Young Political Analysts, said.

"It wasn't Armenia that closed its borders with Turkey but vice-versa.
Turkey acted against Armenia and still tries to speak set preconditions."

No fan of the current reconciliation process, Gavarian said she feared a
repeat of events in the 1920s, when Russia and Turkey "decided to sacrifice
Armenians and possibly the whole of Karabakh for the sake of their own interests".

Gavarian was referring to Stalin's decision to place overwhelmingly Armenian
populated Nagorny Karabakh within the borders of Azerbaijan.

Karen Ohanjanian, leader of the Social Justice Party, told IWPR that local
people felt uninvolved and marginalised by much of the recent diplomatic
activity.

"The public has no knowledge of the context of the road map or about the
talks between Armenian and Russian presidents on the principles of Karabakh
conflict resolution," Ohanjanian said.

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev recently met his Armenian counterpart
Serzh Sargsian near Moscow to discuss energy cooperation and the Karabakh
conflict.

"I hope no preconditions are set at our expense or, as leader of one of the
most powerful parties in Nagorny Karabakh, I will take steps to mobilise the
masses to prevent any alteration of the Karabakh security system," Ohanjanian
said.

"Karabakh can't cede any territories to the detriment of national and physical
security of its residents."

All political parties in Nagorny Karabakh have released a common statement,
urging the international community to acknowledge the genocide of 1915 and
recognise the independence of the entity.

According to Vahram Atanesian, head of the Democracy faction in parliament,
"recent processes show Russia and Turkey are trying to solve the problems in
the South Caucasus in accordance with their own interests".

He urged politicians from Nagorny Karabakh to "remind the international
community and the mediators that a resolution of the Karabakh conflict
in line with the concept of dividing the South Caucasus into spheres of
influence is unacceptable.

"Any solution that doesn't envisage our independence within fixed borders is
inadmissible for us."

But Masis Mailian, chair of Nagorny Karabakh's Foreign Policy and Security
Council, sounds a more cautious note.

He describes the joint statement of the foreign ministries of Armenia, Turkey
and Switzerland on the road map as convenient for Turkey but not as necessarily
detrimental to Armenians.

"If Turkey really claims a regional leadership role, it must no longer remain captive
to the senseless ambitions of Azerbaijan," he said.

Mailian said he hoped Ankara's more "pragmatic attitude" towards Armenia might
lead to the restoration of diplomatic ties and reopening of the borders.

"These moves might [then] prompt Azerbaijan to soften its position, leading to more
constructive view of the resolution of the Karabakh conflict," he added.

Ashot Gulian, speaker of the Nagorny Karabakh parliament, also supports
Yerevan's drive to heal relations with Turkey.

"The Armenian side is apparently more interested in reopening of the borders
[than is Turkey]," he noted.

But the speaker still describes the thaw in relations as mutually beneficial, adding
that it need not undermine moves to gain world recognition of the 1915 genocide.

"The opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is necessary for both sides," he said.

"But since it was stated before that the reconciliation process must lack any
preconditions, the efforts to achieve recognition of the Armenian genocide can't
have any influence on the normalisation of Armenia-Turkey relations."

Meanwhile, the numerous traders who have been enjoying the more open border
regime between Armenia and Turkey for some time - and who sell products brought
from Turkey in Nagorny Karabakh - follow events with interest.

"I have been traveling to Turkey to buy goods for seven years, and frankly, I have
never had any problems there," Marta Arzumanian, a shopkeeper, told IWPR.

An acknowledged fan of the road map , Arzumanian added, "Personally, I think
reopening the border will make our work much easier and will reduce taxes."

Karine Ohanian is a freelance journalist in Stepanakert.


IWPR
BORDER TURKS WANT DOOR TO ARMENIA KEPT SHUT
Plan to reopen frontier between Armenia and Turkey wins few friends in towns
and villages on Turkish side.
By Sabuhi Mammadli in Igdir, Turkey

Talk of the possible reopening of the Turkish-Armenian border has left residents in
nearby Turkish towns divided on whether such a development is what they need.

Many say that even if it means certain economic benefits for them, they are not
ready to make friends with their Armenian neighbours.

Igdir is a small town in Turkey. For all its provinciality, it lies in an area of great strategic
importance for Turkey, located at an intersection of the country's borders with Azerbaijan,
Armenia and Iran.

Most of the local people in Igdir are Azeris who moved here from territories in or adjacent
to Nagorny Karabakh.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in sympathy with Azerbaijan, following a
series of defeats that the latter had suffered in its war over Nagorny Karabakh.

There are still no diplomatic relations between the two countries due to the still unresolved
Karabakh conflict and Armenia's demands that Turkey recognise the following: the 1915
mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as a genocide; and the territorial claims
of some Armenian political parties to six provinces in Turkey's north-east.

But the fact that the opening of the frontier is one of the 35 requirements Turkey
needs to meet to be admitted to the European Union has put pressure on Ankara
to find a solution.

Armenia and Turkey, with Switzerland as mediator, have been negotiating behind closed
doors on the issue since 2002.

The unblocking of the border was the top item on the agenda in talks between Turkish prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and United States president Barack Obama during the latter's
recent visit to Ankara.

The issue was also discussed during the Turkish president Abdullah Gul's short visit to
Armenia last September.

It also featured in the Turkish-Armenian talks being conducted in Switzerland, which resulted
in the recent joint declaration of a so-called road map, leading towards hoped-for normalisation
of relations.

Signs that Turkey and Armenia might be moving toward a rapprochement have displeased
the Azerbaijan president, Ilham Aliev, however.

He showed his annoyance by refusing to attend a recent international conference in Ankara,
thus sacrificing an opportunity to meet Obama, who attended the event among other
high-ranking guests.

Despite Azerbaijan's demarches, the Turkish-Armenian road map already envisions
reopening two checkpoints on the frontier between the two countries.

One is located near the village of Alijan in Igdir; the other is in the Kars village of Akyaka.

Cahid Erol, head of the Igdir department of the National Movement Party, known in Turkey
as the MHP, is worried by the momentum leading towards reopening of the border.

He fears the recent election of a Kurdish mayor in Igdir may have advanced an undesirable
process.

Erol recently lost the local elections to the candidate of the Kurdish Democratic Society Party,
Mehmet Gunesh, whom Erol insists is a sympathiser with the Kurdish Workers' Party, PKK,
deemed a terrorist organisation in Turkey.

"Now, unfortunately, they've appointed a member of the PKK to lead the municipality," Erol
complained.

He worries that the new Kurdish municipal chief will act on his pledges to open the frontier
with Armenia.

Soon after being elected, Gunesh told a local newspaper he would "open the gates of Alijan",
the village near one of the proposed checkpoints.

"This will boost the region's economic development," he told the same newspaper.

The idea of trading away Turkey's alliance with Azerbaijan in exchange for "development"
does not appeal to Erol.

"Our respected [party] chairman, Devlet Bahceli, says, 'We won't back off on
Karabakh, even if Azerbaijan does,'" he retorted.

"We would be glad if Azerbaijan took a tough stance on the Turkey-Armenia border
reopening issue, and if [President] Aliev upset the plans of Obama and Erdogan.

"Our party has made its position clear. The border will never be opened, or they will have
to step over our dead bodies first."

Opinions vary among ordinary residents of Igdir, though many seem as hostile to the
reopening of the frontier as Erol.

Nuri, an employee in the Hotel Barbarossa, in the heart of Igdir, said such a development
would stain Turkey's reputation.

"I just can't imagine Armenians traveling freely to Turkey," he said. "How can it be
possible?"

A local businessman, Ekrem Yesil, struck a similar line. He said the sociology department
of the University of Arzrum had recently conducted a survey of 10,000 people, showing
the overwhelming majority against reconciliation.

"Ninety-seven per cent of the respondents said they did not want the border reopened,"
Yesil said.

"Most of the remaining three per cent were members of the pro-government Justice
and Development Party."

Murat Karademir, of the opposition Popular Republican Party, also adamantly opposes
a rapprochement, describing Igdir as "the door to the Caucasus" - a door, he says, that
needed to remain firmly shut in Armenia's face.

"For Armenians, the town represents a path to Europe via Turkey; in a word, it's a strategic
territory," he said.

"Opening this door to Armenians now would mean a catastrophe for Turkey, a threat to i
ts security.

"Besides, the PKK is very active in this region; it's not a secret for anyone that
many PKK members are trained in Armenia and the occupied Karabakh.

"It is there that terrorists get their wounds treated. Already it's very difficult to [prevent them
going] crossing into Armenia. Unsealing the border would make it still easier for them to
move."

Mehmet Aydin, who comes from Alijan and now lives in Igdir, said Ankara had recently
made a point of sending envoys to the village to argue for reopening the frontier.

"They have been saying, 'You see how Igdir has evolved from a small village into a town
after the border with Azerbaijan was opened. That's what will happen to Alijan, [if the
border with Armenia is unsealed]'.

"Some believe in this propaganda and want [it] to be reopened, but most don't."

But not everyone in Igdir wants the frontier with Armenia to remain shut forever.

Ahmet Sahin, a local activist of the Democratic Society Party, believes many businesses
in Igdir now idling because of economic difficulties could get back on track if the border
was opened.

"I'm an entrepreneur myself," he said. "The chemical goods produced at my factory
have been collecting dust in storage facilities.

"What would be wrong if I took my produce to the Armenian market?"

"The border should be opened, because there are no jobs in Turkey," agreed Mehmet
Broi, a local teacher. "Trade has shrunk too. Armenia is a profitable territory for us."

The governor of the area, Mehmet Karahisarli, also sounded a note of optimism about
the possible reopening of the border. "[This] would stimulate business activity in both
Igdir and the entire district," he told IWPR.

But Turkish nationalists continue to reiterate that they will only tolerate seeing the frontier
unsealed if Armenia meets a series of conditions.

These start with Nagorny Karabakh.

"First of all, Armenia has to un-occupy the territories of Karabakh," Erol said.

"Secondly, they should get the genocide demand out of their heads. Thirdly,
they should stop asking Turkey for compensation. Fourthly, they should give
up their territorial claims regarding Turkey. Fifthly, they should admit to the
[February 1992] massacre [of Azeris] in Khojali.

"Once the Armenians have met all these conditions, Erdogan and Gul can even become
related to [Armenian president Serzh] Sargsian for all we care.

"Until they do, we have nothing to talk about."

Sabuhi Mammadli is a freelance journalist.


ARMENIA TALKS STRAIN TURKEY'S TIES WITH AZERBAIJAN
Perceived cooling in relationship between Ankara and Baku may
have ramifications for the latter's energy strategy.
By Seymur Kazimov in Baku


The refusal of Azerbaijan's president to attend an international conference
in Istanbul earlier this month has sparked speculation that Baku may be
using its energy resources to exert pressure on its old Turkish ally.

Ilham Aliev reportedly declined to attend the meeting of the Alliance of
Civilisations initiative on April 6-7, aimed at fostering dialogue between
the West and Muslim countries, in protest against Turkey's perceived
new policy on Armenia

While not going to Istanbul, Aliev accepted his Russian counterpart
Dmitry Medvedev's invitation to visit Moscow on April 16 to talk about
closer cooperation in the gas field.

That day, the Turkish foreign minister, Ali Babajan, took part in a meeting
of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organisation, BSEC, in Yerevan,
Armenia.

Until now, Azerbaijan has been selling gas to its ally Turkey at half the
market price of 380-430 US dollars per thousand cubic metres.

This favourable price is now expected to go up, especially as Russia
has said it is willing to buy Azeri gas for what it costs in the world market.

Russia and Azerbaijan have been sounding each other out over closer
energy ties for some months now.

The chairman of Gazprom, Aleksei Miller, visited Azerbaijan to formalise
Russia's interest in buying natural gas from Azerbaijan last June.

On March 27, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, SOCAR, and the
Russian energy giant signed a memorandum, pursuant to which Azerbaijan
is to start supplying gas to Russia from January 2010.

Opinions vary on what has prompted Azerbaijan to seek closer cooperation
with Russia in the energy field.

Some experts suggest Aliev is revising his options with Turkey, in response
to the prospect of the latter reopening its border with Armenia.

Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 in sympathy with Azerbaijan
over the dispute over Nagorny-Karabakh.

Russia has hitherto been seen as an ally of Armenia rather than Azerbaijan
in the region.

However, Baku political analyst Ilgar Mamedov downplays talk that Azerbaijan
is using its gas wealth to take a form of diplomatic revenge on Turkey.

He believes Aliev is more concerned about Turkey's stance on selling transited
gas than on the possible unsealing of the Turkish-Armenian border, or the
Karabakh issue.

"Azerbaijan wants its gas from the Shah-Deniz gas field to reach Europe via
Turkey but Turkey wants to [remain able to] buy this gas for 150 dollars and
then sell it on to Europe for 400," he explained.

"That scheme does not sit well with Aliev. That's where the cause of the
tension lies."

Mamedov said Turkey's position on reselling the gas was justifiable,
however, because it had closed its borders with Armenia for 16 years
now, damaging ties with European countries and the US as a result.

"It would be wrong to fault Turkey's position on the gas issue," he said. "Aliev
has allowed himself to be guided by commercial interests alone and has
launched a campaign against Turkey that is absolutely unacceptable."

The same expert said Aliev might have calculated that by selling gas
to Russia he would secure Moscow's sympathy over the dispute with
Armenia, while Turkey would continue to support Azerbaijan over
Nagorny Karabakh in any case.

But the expert warned that if Azerbaijan now increased the price of gas for
Turkey, the latter might rethink its entire stance on the conflict between Armenia
and Azerbaijan.

The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet was the first to suggest that Azerbaijan had
declared a "gas war" against Turkey, and that Ankara was reviewing its
relationship with Baku in consequence.

Sources in Azerbaijan's industry and energy ministry quickly denied the Turkish
media reports, saying the Azeri authorities would have already come up with
a response "if the information had been true".

But another Turkish newspaper, Yenicag, has carried similar information. It also
suggested that Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, the AKP, was
now also questioning Turkey's role in the planned Nabucco gas pipeline.

This is intended to pump gas from Azerbaijan and other states in Central Asia
to Europe via Georgia and Turkey, circumventing Armenia
.

The pipeline has been touted as a much-needed alternative route for natural
gas to reach Europe, now increasingly worried about its heavy dependence
on Russia for gas.

While freeing Europe from energy dependence on Russia, the pipeline
is also seen as a key strategic and economic weapon for Azerbaijan,
strengthening its hand against landlocked, energy-poor Armenia.

Azerbaijan's discovered natural gas reserves are estimated at around 1.5 trillion
cubic metres.

Companies participating in the 12.4 billion US dollars' worth Nabucco project
are OMV of Austria, MOL of Hungary, Bulgargaz of Bulgaria, Transgaz of Romania,
BOTAS of Turkey and RWE of Germany.

Construction was initially supposed to start in 2009 and be completed by 2013,
though the world economic crisis has put a dampener on those plans.

Ilham Shaban, head of the Oil Research Centre in Azerbaijan, dismisses criticism
in the Turkish and western press of Azerbaijan's energy policies as ungrounded.

He also denies that growing energy ties between Azerbaijan and Russia will
come at the expense of Baku's old ties to Turkey.

The two countries, Shaban says, had long been supplying each other with
electricity. "Negotiations are underway between Azerbaijan, Russia and
Turkey regarding the gas issue," he continued.

"I assess the agreement between Azerbaijan and Russia as highly important,
because ethnic Azerbaijanis make up 11 per cent of Russia's population."

Political analyst Haleddin Ibragimli said he doubted deeper energy ties
with Russia would much affect the drive to settle the Karabakh conflict.

Azeri officials, meanwhile, reiterate that Azerbaijan is a sovereign state that
pursues an independent policy and needs no advice on what countries it should
cooperate with in the field of energy.

In Moscow, Aliev said Azerbaijan and Russia would be protecting their energy
security and their interests as producers and exporters of energy.

Answering a question from the Interfax new agency about new agreements on
transit and cooperation in the gas field, Aliev cautioned that the whole issue still
remained under discussion.

"Gazprom and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan are busy discussing an
agreement," he said.

"As is known, a memorandum has already been signed that corroborates the
existence of mutual interests. For our part, there will be no restrictions to
cooperation in the gas field."

Later, the president said the two countries also planned to work more closely
together over oil, increasing the volume being pumped into the pipeline that runs
from Baku to Novorossiysk in Russia.

Another potential agreement concerns upgrading the gas pipeline from Baku to
Novo-Filya in the near future. This 200 km-long pipeline runs via the capital of
Azerbaijan along the Caspian Sea coast to the border with Russia.

Fariz Huseinov of Memphis University says Turkey stands to lose out more
than Azerbaijan, if Ankara alienates Baku over Armenia. This is because
Turkey's role as a transit country for Azerbaijan's gas is negotiable.

According to Huseinov, Azerbaijan had already signed an energy agreement with
Ukraine that potentially relieved Azerbaijan from any dependence on Turkey as a
transit country.

Huseinov was referring to the one-on-one meeting between Aliev and his Ukraine
counterpart Viktor Yushchenko in Baku earlier this month, where a number of
protocols were signed for closer cooperation in 2009-10.

"That would mean we could reach Europe otherwise than via Turkey," he said.
"We might use a route linking Georgia the Black Sea and Ukraine, detouring
both Russia and Turkey."

Seymur Kazimov is an IWPR contributor.
OBAMA BREAKS CAMPAIGN PLEDGE TO PRESERVE TURKISH RELATIONS
Daniel Dombey
FT
April 25 2009 03:00

Barack Obama broke a campaign pledge when he issued a statement
yesterday that did not use the word -"genocide" in commemorating the
massacre of up to 1.5m Armenians more than 90 years ago.

The US president's move, which will be seen as a sign of realpolitik,
highlights the administration's emphasis on good relations with -Turkey
and its encouragement of a diplomatic initiative in the Caucusus.

For many years Mr Obama has favoured describing the Ottoman Empire-era
killings as genocide and during the campaign he promised to do so if
elected president.

But in the statement issued by the White House yesterday, the day of
Armenian remembrance observed each year, he said merely that his own
view "of what occurred in 1915 . . . has not changed".

He described the killings as one of the "great atrocities of the 20th
century" and referred to the "Meds Yeghern" - the Armenian term for
the massacres.

Mr Obama's statement -follows similar side-steps by former presidents.

George W. Bush shrank from -campaign promises and denounced the
"forced exile and annihilation" of the Armenians. Bill Clinton also
avoided the word genocide.

Expectations had in-creased in recent weeks that the president would
pull back from his pledge to describe the killings as genocide,
in spite of a campaign by many US lawmakers.

Turkey has long signalled that relations between Washington and Ankara
could suffer if the US used the word and more recently suggested
that efforts to establish normal relations with its neighbour Armenia
could also be affected.

Turkey and Armenia this week declared they had made progress towards
establishing diplomatic ties and opening their border, although no
agreement has yet been signed.

During his trip to Turkey this month, Mr Obama said he did not wanted
to focus on his own views of the massacres but on Armenian-Turkish
relations, a sentiment he repeated yesterday.

Meanwhile, many US lawmakers are continuing a bid to censure the
killings as genocide in a House of Representatives resolution, an
initiative backed by Nancy Pelosi, House speaker. Some argue that Mr
Obama's backtracking will only make them redouble their efforts.

As of yesterday, the congressional resolution had 108 backers in the
435-member House. A similar measure in 2007 counted on more than
230 supporters before efforts to pass it collapsed in the face of
Turkish opposition.

"It is long past time for the US government to formally recognise
the Armenian genocide," Ms Pelosi said yesterday.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

No comments: