Time for Turkey to be visionary
Gibrahayer e-magazine
<>"Nothing is settled until it is settled right." Rudyard Kipling
The EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle: style="font-size:130%;">"Time for Turkey to Be Visionary in the South Caucasus"
by Sabine Freizer - International Crisis Group
Optimism about the normalisation of Turkey-Armenia bi-lateral relations, so prevalent on 22 April when the two countries announced that they had agreed on a comprehensive framework for reconciliation, has suddenly faded. Normalisation would include opening of the Turkey-Armenia border, establishing diplomatic relations, and setting up of bilateral commissions to deal with multiple issues, including the historical dimension of their relations. It first seemed that these steps could be accomplished by Autumn 2009. Now they may be delayed for years.
">Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan put a brake on the reconciliation effort, when in Baku on 13 May, he did not mince his words: “the closure of the [Turkey-Armenia] border is a result of the [Armenian] occupation in Karabakh […] until the occupation ends, the border gates will remain closed.">The occupation of some 13.5 per cent of Azerbaijan’s territory by Armenian-backed forces started in 1992, when Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave which was an Armenian majority autonomous region of Azerbaijan in Soviet times. Since the signing of a 1994 ceasefire, there has been no pulling back by any of the armed forces, and the ceasefire line remains an active front line where there are regular casualties.">Since 1993, Turkey has maintained a policy of keeping its border with Armenia closed until Armenian forces withdraw, largely due to its wish to express its respect for historical and ethnic ties with Azerbaijan. The closed-border policy had no impact on Armenia's Nagorno-Karabakh stance, and arguably made Armenia less likely to withdraw in exchange for peace; Turkey’s threatening posture did however cost it considerable political capital in the U.S. and Europe. But in 2008, after several years of secretive talks between Turkey and Armenia, it seemed as though Ankara had foresightedly de-linked its relations with Armenia from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey appeared ready to re-open its border with Armenia as part of a broader normalisation package with its immediate neighbour -- in exchange for Yerevan’s recognition of Turkey’s current borders and participation in a commission to analyse their historical differences, including about the great massacre of Ottoman Armenians of 1915.">This visionary policy shift not only had the potential to help resolve one of the most strained relationships between two European countries since World War I but also to open new transport and communication links in the strategic South Caucasus. It was backed by Russia, and even more strongly by U.S. President Obama during his visit to Turkey in March.
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