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10 Major Concerns Regarding Armenia-Turkey Protocols
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier

In earlier columns, I had described the major negative aspects of the
already initialed Armenia-Turkey Protocols made public on August 31.
The concerns I had expressed dealt with two unacceptable preconditions
-- recognizing the territorial integrity of Turkey and establishing a
joint committee of experts to study historical archives, a not
so-veiled reference to re-examining the Armenian Genocide.

Below is a more comprehensive evaluation, providing 10 reasons why the
Armenian government should not have initialed, and should not sign and
ratify these Protocols:

1) Armenia's leaders made the misjudgment of trying to resolve a large
number of emotionally-charged Armenian-Turkish issues all at once,
through20a single agreement. Decades of antagonism cannot be dealt with
in such haste. Armenian officials should have proceeded cautiously and
gradually, starting with the simple step of establishing diplomatic
relations, followed by the opening of the border. More complicated
issues should have been left for a later date.

2) Since the declared purpose of these negotiations is the opening of
the border with Armenia -- which Turkey shut down 16 years ago -- there
was no reason to conduct such protracted and complex negotiations, and
draft an elaborate document that included many unrelated and
unacceptable conditions. It may have been wiser to draft a one-sentence
agreement that would have simply stated: `Armenia and Turkey agree to
establish diplomatic relations and declare their mutual border open on
January 1, 2010.' In fact, such a one-line agreement was adopted by the
United States and Turkey in 1927, when establishing diplomatic
relations.

3) Armenia did not have to make any concessions in order to entice
Turkey to open its border. Since Turkey has been desperately trying to
join the European Union for several decades, it has no choice but to
open its border with Armenia. The EU requires that all member states
have open borders with neighboring countries.

4) By rushing to shut down the border in 1993, Turkey deprived itself
of an important leverage over Armenia. Should Turkey reopen the border,
it would once again repossess that leverage, holding the threat of
closing the border as a Damoclean Sword over Armenia's head. This
threat becomes particularly potent, once Armenia's population is
increasingly dependent on imported, cheap Turkish foodstuffs and goods.
Should Turkey decide to close the border in the future under some
pretext, Armenia's leaders would not be able to reverse the damage done
to the nation's interests, even if they abrogated the Protocols!

5) Prime Minister Erdogan said once again last week that Turkey would
not open its border with Armenia, unless the Karabagh (Artsakh)
conflict is resolved. Armenia's leaders should announce that they will
not sign these Protocols, since Turkish officials have made it crystal
clear that they have no intention of keeping their side of the bargain.
6) Retired Turkish Ambassador Yalim Eralp made an important disclosure
during a recent interview. He stated that the Turkish Parliament, while
ratifying the Protocols, could declare them to be valid only after the
resolution of the Karabagh conflict. Should the Turks advance such a
condition, the Armenian Parliament could retaliate by requiring that
the Protocols go into effect only after Turkey acknowledges the
Armenian Genocide and Azerbaijan recognizes the Republic of Artsakh!

7) The Protocols do not include any requirement that they be signed and
ratified by a particular date. The oft-mentioned October 12 or 13
signature dates are not mentioned in the text of the Protocols. The
Armenian government should not rush to sign and ratify these Protocols.
Armenia's leaders may yet be saved from damaging their country's
interests by Turkey's reluctance to ratify the Protocols. Turkey may
blink first!

8) Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian admitted last week that there is
no legal requirement to submit these Protocols to Parliament for
ratification. However, such ratification would unnecessarily compound
the damage done to Armenia's national interests.

9) The Armenian government made no attempt during the lengthy
negotiations with Turkey to consult with Diaspora Armenians, despite
the fact that the Protocols addressed vital pan-Armenian issues. Months
ago, when organizations and individuals expressed serious concerns
regarding the preliminary text of the Protocols, they were simply
ignored by the Armenian authorities. Attempts to hold discussions at
the eleventh hour are futile, since the Armenian Foreign Minister has
declared that the Protocols cannot be amended.

10) When the Armenian President met with leaders of more than 50
political parties in Yerevan last week, the five-hour-long
`consultations' were held behind closed doors. Regrettably, only the
President's remarks were publicized. One would hope that when Pres.
Sargsyan goes on his planned trip in early October to Paris, New York,
Los Angeles, Moscow, and Beirut, his discussions with Diaspora leaders
would be more open and transparent, and preferably televised.

The one unintended outcome of this heated controversy is the coming
together of diverse Armenian organizations to take a common stand
against these Protocols. It is everyone's earnest hope that the intense
intra-Armenian discord would not last long and Armenia's leaders would
find the courage and wisdom to stand down from their decision to sign
and ratify these Protocols detrimental to the Armenian Cause.

ARMENIANS LICK LIPS AT PROSPECT OF TURKISH TRADE
Economists predict huge boost for Armenian economy if ties

between Yerevan and Ankara are normalised.
By Hasmik Hambardzumian in Yerevan

Economists have welcomed the progress Yerevan and Ankara have

made towards normalising relations, anticipating it will open up vast

new markets for Armenian producers.

There is currently a near-total blockade on Armenian goods going to

Turkey. In 2008, according to Armenia's National Statistics Service,

less than two million US dollars worth of Armenia products were exported

to Turkey, whereas more than 250 million dollars of Turkish goods were

imported.

Correcting this imbalance could prove revolutionary for Armenia, which

currently depends on exporting most of its goods to Russia via Georgia,

since its borders with both Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed.

"A significant growth in the economy is expected, with an increase in the

volume of exports and a growth in investment, as well as an improvement

in the population's living conditions," said Mark Lewis, the head of the

International Monetary Fund's mission in Yerevan.

Armenia and Turkey have lacked diplomatic relations since shortly after

Yerevan gained independence from Moscow. Ankara, in a mark of support

for its allies in Azerbaijan, who were fighting Armenian forces for control

of the region of Nagorny Karabakh, cut ties in 1993 and has not restored

them. Armenians still rule Karabakh, and the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace

process is mired in difficulties.

Armenia and Turkey, however, have made significant progress since the

two presidents met at a football match between their national sides a year

ago.

They issued two protocols at the end of August, pledging to sign them

after six weeks of public discussion. Appropriately, the six week discussion

period, which should end with the border being opened, is due to end just

before the return fixture.

The initial meeting also featured a deal between the Turkish UNIT company

and High-Voltage Electric Networks of Armenia to sell 1.5 billion

kilowatt/hours of Armenian electricity to Turkey. The size of the contract is

a clear sign of the potential for cooperation.

Harutiun Khachatrian, an economic analyst from the Noyan Tapan agency,

did not believe the official explanation for why no electricity has been sold

so far. Officials say technical complications have prevented progress being

made, but Khachatrian said its failure was linked to the progress of the peace

talks.

"The fact that the project is not yet completed is obviously political," he said.

"You cannot even imagine how beneficial this cooperation will be for Armenia.

Completely new possibilities will be opened, joint ventures will appear, products

will be exported."

Some economists have predicted, however, that the businessmen who currently

dominate the Armenian market will object to the border with Turkey being opened,

since it would let in a flood of competing products and services that could well

undercut them on price.

Few of the so-called oligarchs Armenian have actually expressed a negative

opinion of the peace process, with just Hrant Vardanian, president of the tobacco

and confectionary company Grand Holding, being quoted in April as saying he

looked on it "without particular enthusiasm".

"The opening of the Turkish border means an end to monopolies. This is a

significant step," said Hrant Bagratian, a former prime minister and an economist

by training.

Bagratian said some reluctance to open the border to competition from Turkish

operators was natural, since Armenian businesses have faced little competition

since independence.

He said Armenia just had to exploit its strengths, and trust its producers to

become efficient enough to combat Turkish competitors.

"Whatever they do in Turkey, they won't have the same harvest of tomatoes,

apricots and grapes that we have and in this sense, I think the opening of the

border won't do much harm to our farmers. It's possible that there will be a

temporary shock, but within one or two years we will see that we have good

chances for development," he said.

Other businessmen agreed that Armenians should not be concerned, and

should just rely on their country's natural advantages. Besides the agricultural

sector, the energy business, for example, is one where Armenia has a clear

advantage, thanks to the Soviet legacy of decent infrastructure.

"With the correct implementation of international standards, there is no cause

for concern, since in Armenia the industrial base, the infrastructure and the

workforce are cheaper than in Turkey, where there are high salaries. It is

necessary to occupy ourselves with increasing the productivity and efficiency

of our production methods," said Gurgen Arsenian, founder of the Arsoil

company.

Hasmik Hambardzumian is a correspondent from www.panorama.am.

IWPR country director Seda Muardyan contributed to this report.

RFE/RL Report

Clinton, Sarkisian In Another Phone Call On Turkey
U.S. -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to the media after
a bilateral meeting with Jordan Foreign Minister at the Department

of State in Washington, 03Aug2009
21.09.2009

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton telephoned President Serzh
Sarkisian at the weekend to again discuss Armenia's ongoing
rapprochement with Turkey facilitated by the United States.

A one-sentence statement issued by Sarkisian's office on Sunday said
the two touched upon `issues related to the current stage of the
normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations. It gave no other
details. There was no word on the conversation, the second in a
month, from the U.S. State Department.

Clinton has regularly talked to Armenian and Turkish leaders this
year in an effort to push forward their fence-mending negotiations.
Her previous phone call with Sarkisian was reported on September 21,
ten days before the publication of two draft agreements envisaging
the establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkish
and reopening of their border.

Their latest conversation came the day after official Yerevan accused
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of acting against `the
letter, spirit and aims' of those agreements. Erdogan reportedly
stated on Friday that Turkey will not reopen the Armenian border as
long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unresolved.

In a late-night statement, Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian warned
that Ankara risks `ruining' the Turkish-Armenian dialogue by again
linking it to the Karabakh peace process.

None of the draft protocols unveiled by the two governments on August
31 makes any reference to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. The
State Department was quick to welcome those documents and urge Ankara
and Yerevan to `proceed expeditiously' in implementing them.

RFE/RL Report

Yerevan Warns Ankara Over Fresh Karabakh Linkage
Armenia -- Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandian at a press conference
in Yerevan, 02Sep2009

19.09.2009
Armenia criticized Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan late
Friday for reportedly again making the normalization of Turkish-
Armenian relations conditional on a resolution of the Nagorno-
Karabakh conflict acceptable to Azerbaijan.

`Turkey's position has not changed,' the `Milliyet' daily quoted
Erdogan as telling Turkish media editors earlier in the day. `We are
repeating that as long as Azerbaijan's occupied territories are not
returned, the border with Armenia will not be opened.'

He noted at the same time that Armenia and Azerbaijan are now `close'
to hammering out a peace accord.

Official Yerevan was unusually quick to react to the Turkish
premier's comments. In a late-night written statement, Foreign
Minister Eduard Nalbandian said they go against `the letter, spirit
and aims' of draft Turkish-Armenian protocols made public on August
31. The protocols envisage the establishment of diplomatic relations
between the two states and reopening of their border and make no
reference to the Karabakh conflict.

`The Turkish side is aware and, we are sure, realizes that we rule
out any linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations and steps to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. By
attempting to link those two process, one risks botching both of
them,' warned Nalbandian.

`The same position is held by many other countries, including the
countries co-chairing the Minsk Group [on Karabakh,] which have
repeatedly stated that the normalization of relations between Armenia
and Turkey must be without preconditions,' he said. He did not
specify whether Erdogan's stance could affect President Serzh
Sarkisian's plans to visit Turkey for an October 14 match of
Armenia's and Turkey's national soccer teams.

Citing unnamed diplomats in Ankara, Turkish media reported earlier
this week that the Turkish-Armenian protocols will be signed the day
before Sarkisian's landmark visit. The documents will have to be
ratified by the parliaments of both countries before they can come
into effect.

Erdogan's remarks raise more questions about the likelihood of the
Turkish parliament, controlled by his Justice and Development Party,
endorsing the deal. Opposition politicians and analysts in Armenia
have already speculated that Erdogan will stall or block the
ratification process if Yerevan and Baku fail to agree on basic
principles of a Karabakh settlement in the coming months.

TURKEY'S ECONOMIC EXPANSION BIGGEST THREAT TO

ARMENIA
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
17.09.2009 GMT+04:00

Despite the sluggish protests of the opposition and some
pro-governmental parties, the Foreign Minister will sign the
Armenian-Turkish agreement.

Little time is left for consideration till October 14, when
Turkish and Armenian national football teams meet in the frames
of a World Cup qualifying match. The question is whether to sign
or not sign the Protocols on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations. Discussions are held not only in Armenia, where the entire
population seems to be engaged in the process, but also in Turkey.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In both countries there are supporters and
opponents of normalization of relations but, frankly speaking,
neither of the sides will be listened to at the decisive moment. Thus,
there will happen what the world powers are pushing the two countries
to. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the number of opponents and
supporters, even for the simple opening of the border is nearly the
same in both countries. For some reason people in Armenia consider
that the Turks want the border opened for the mere aim to crush the
Armenians economically and to dictate their political will. Indeed,
there is a grain of truth in this fear, but it is only a grain since
almost the same is believed also by the Turks: Armenians will stream
into Turkey, build hotels on the shores of Lake Van and inflate
property prices. And all this at the time of crisis and enormous
foreign debt. The trouble is that we basically draw the information
about Turkey from the Azerbaijani media which writes about everything
from the standpoint of Official Baku. Hence the extreme nervousness
of Baku, which neither the President nor the Prime Minister of Turkey
will be able to dispel.

As for Armenia, despite the sluggish protests of the opposition and
some pro-governmental parties, the Foreign Minister will sign the
Armenian-Turkish agreement. The same applies to Ahmet Davutoglu. And
all these meetings with party leaders are simply a tribute paid to
international and "democratic" standards. However, the Protocols have
an excellent loophole in case of "unpleasant" turn of events: they
shall enter into force only after being ratified by the parliaments
of both countries. And this may result in a number of complications in
the Turkish parliament, which, however, is almost completely composed
of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) members. However, this
majority is not like our silent majority that votes as ordered. Among
the AKP members there are a lot of people really dissatisfied with
Gul and Erdogan's policy towards Europe and Armenia. And there is
also opposition, led by Deniz Baykal, which roughly speaking, is a
lobbyist for Baku. There exist also ultranationalists who are ready to
just kill anyone who would urge Turkey to reconcile with "unfaithful"
Armenia. So, it is absurd to claim that Turkey merely "dreams" about
conquering Armenia. It is true that Turkey, and before it the Ottoman
Empire, is enemy number 1 for the Armenians. But from a different
outlook, similar enemy to Turkey are the Armenians: disturbing,
always demanding, writing letters to all international bodies. Only
unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, no one wants to listen to them.

However, let us return to the discussions that are becoming more and
more frivolous daily. Indeed, why should the Health Commission or the
Public Chamber of the Republic of Armenia discuss the Protocols? Or
why should it be done by the Agriculture Commission, whose concern,
however, is grounded: the Armenian market might be flooded with cheap
fruit and vegetables from the border provinces, as a result of which
our farmers would eventually go bankrupt.

In our view the right thing to do would not be to discuss the contents
of the Protocols, which are interpreted by politicians in a manner
suitable to them, but to try to produce some legal mechanism that
would help to avoid the negative consequences of the normalization
of relations with Turkey. Instead of "exchange" of opinions we need
laws that would prevent the import of Turkish food into Armenia and
restrict the exports of manufactured goods. In other words, the economy
of Armenia must be prepared for the possible Turkish expansion. This
is very serious because in the view of imperfectness of the laws
and the pursuit of profit, we may simply award the Turks a chance
to buy real estate, and what the politicians say may come true with
the connivance of those same politicians, by the way. In Turkey, for
example, foreign nationals cannot buy real estate for any money. It is
so also in Armenia, but for great amounts you can do everything. So,
in the long run, all these "discussions" are useless; they are just
a great PR-campaign for our politicians, analysts and experts.

In fact, everything will be signed, ratified, President of Armenia
will attend the football match, and the Armenian team will lose
again. The scenario will repeat itself.
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