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THOMAS DE WAAL: IF A CONFLICT DOES EVER BREAK OUT
AGAIN, IT WILL BE A FULL-SCALE WAR BETWEEN THE STATES
OF ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
by Nana Martirosyan
Friday, February 13, 15:10
If a conflict does ever break out again, it will be a full-scale
war between the states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, an analyst of the
Carnegie Fund, Thomas de Waal, says in an article.
He also added that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have exchanged fire
across the so-called Line of Contact and made threatening noises. But
neither side has shown any willingness to push things back over
the brink.
"The basic arguments for avoiding war remain the same. It would do
catastrophic damage to everyone. The Armenian side got most of what
it wanted in 1994. Azerbaijan, the defeated side in the war of the
1990s, has a greater incentive to back to war to try to re-conquer
lands that constitute almost 14 per cent of its de jure territory,
but it would be a very risky enterprise. Given the mountainous
terrain and the Armenian defenses, an operation could easily fail,
costing potentially not just the lives of thousands of young men in
the minefields around Karabakh, but the survival of the ruling elite
itself. Far safer for Baku to rattle sabers than to fire real guns.
The Azerbaijani side is militarily far stronger than it was 10 years
ago and the ceasefire line is almost the only place where it has
leverage over the Armenians. Over the years, Azerbaijani officials
have rejected proposals to strengthen the ceasefire by, for example,
withdrawing snipers from the front line or instituting an incident
investigation mechanism--saying that would normalize the status quo
that is unacceptable.
For their part, the Armenians periodically like to demonstrate to
Baku, the world and their own public that they still have a powerful
military and can mount operations of their own.
This year, the signals are much more worrying. At the Munich Security
Conference, the OSCE issued its third alarmed statement in two weeks.
January is usually a quiet month on the ceasefire line but this time
12 dead and 18 wounded were recorded", - Thomas de Waal concluded.
RFE/RL Report
U.S. Lauds `Real' Progress In Armenia's Democratization
11.02.2015
Armenia has made major progress in democratizing its political system
and improving its human rights record in the last several years,
according to a senior U.S. State Department official.
"The fact is that Armenia has a truly multi-partisan parliament and
that there is real debate in the media. There is freedom of assembly
in Armenia. There is a society where people are free to express their
views," Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Eric Rubin told the
Armenian service of the Voice of America in an interview.
"We want to support that by working together with the authorities,"
Rubin said this week. "I think that Armenia has had real achievements
in this area in recent years."
The remarks are in tune with Washington's largely positive assessment
of Armenia's last parliamentary and presidential elections held in
2012 and 2013 respectively. President Serzh Sarkisian received
congratulatory letters from President Barack Obama and Secretary of
State John Kerry after his disputed reelection.
Obama said that he expects from Sarkisian "continued improvements in
democracy and the economic reforms." "Your reelection presents
opportunities to advance the relationship between our two countries,"
he wrote.
Sarkisian received no congratulatory message from Obama's predecessor,
George W. Bush, when he became president in an even more disputed
election in 2008.
by Nana Martirosyan
Friday, February 13, 15:10
If a conflict does ever break out again, it will be a full-scale
war between the states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, an analyst of the
Carnegie Fund, Thomas de Waal, says in an article.
He also added that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have exchanged fire
across the so-called Line of Contact and made threatening noises. But
neither side has shown any willingness to push things back over
the brink.
"The basic arguments for avoiding war remain the same. It would do
catastrophic damage to everyone. The Armenian side got most of what
it wanted in 1994. Azerbaijan, the defeated side in the war of the
1990s, has a greater incentive to back to war to try to re-conquer
lands that constitute almost 14 per cent of its de jure territory,
but it would be a very risky enterprise. Given the mountainous
terrain and the Armenian defenses, an operation could easily fail,
costing potentially not just the lives of thousands of young men in
the minefields around Karabakh, but the survival of the ruling elite
itself. Far safer for Baku to rattle sabers than to fire real guns.
The Azerbaijani side is militarily far stronger than it was 10 years
ago and the ceasefire line is almost the only place where it has
leverage over the Armenians. Over the years, Azerbaijani officials
have rejected proposals to strengthen the ceasefire by, for example,
withdrawing snipers from the front line or instituting an incident
investigation mechanism--saying that would normalize the status quo
that is unacceptable.
For their part, the Armenians periodically like to demonstrate to
Baku, the world and their own public that they still have a powerful
military and can mount operations of their own.
This year, the signals are much more worrying. At the Munich Security
Conference, the OSCE issued its third alarmed statement in two weeks.
January is usually a quiet month on the ceasefire line but this time
12 dead and 18 wounded were recorded", - Thomas de Waal concluded.
RFE/RL Report
U.S. Lauds `Real' Progress In Armenia's Democratization
11.02.2015
Armenia has made major progress in democratizing its political system
and improving its human rights record in the last several years,
according to a senior U.S. State Department official.
"The fact is that Armenia has a truly multi-partisan parliament and
that there is real debate in the media. There is freedom of assembly
in Armenia. There is a society where people are free to express their
views," Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Eric Rubin told the
Armenian service of the Voice of America in an interview.
"We want to support that by working together with the authorities,"
Rubin said this week. "I think that Armenia has had real achievements
in this area in recent years."
The remarks are in tune with Washington's largely positive assessment
of Armenia's last parliamentary and presidential elections held in
2012 and 2013 respectively. President Serzh Sarkisian received
congratulatory letters from President Barack Obama and Secretary of
State John Kerry after his disputed reelection.
Obama said that he expects from Sarkisian "continued improvements in
democracy and the economic reforms." "Your reelection presents
opportunities to advance the relationship between our two countries,"
he wrote.
Sarkisian received no congratulatory message from Obama's predecessor,
George W. Bush, when he became president in an even more disputed
election in 2008.
RFE/RL Report
Opposition Group Vows Another Campaign Trip To Karabakh
Sargis Harutyunyan
11.02.2015
The leader of a radical Armenian opposition group said on Wednesday
that he and his associates will again try to stage a rally in
Nagorno-Karabakh despite being forcibly barred from entering the
territory on January 31.
Zhirayr Sefilian again condemned the Karabakh police for attacking a
procession of about 30 cars carrying members of his Founding
Parliament movement.
More than two dozen of them, including Sefilian, were injured despite
apparently not attempting to break through the police cordon on
Armenia's border with the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
(NKR). Many of their cars were vandalized by police officers even as
they sped away from the scene.
The authorities in Stepanakert defended the use of force condemned by
Armenia's leading opposition parties. Bako Sahakian, the NKR
president, at the same time ordered a police inquiry into the
incident. He assured a visiting fact-finding delegation of Armenia's
parliament at the weekend that those responsible for the violence will
be identified and punished.
It is not clear whether they may include Karabakh policemen. According
to delegation members, Sahakian insisted that letting the Founding
Parliament rally supporters in Stepanakert would have endangered
Karabakh's security given the recent upsurge in fighting along the
nearby "line of contact" with Azerbaijani forces.
Sefilian, who was a prominent field commander during the 1991-1994
Karabakh war, dismissed this argument, saying that freedom of assembly
in Armenia is not restricted despite the fact that many of its
residents live close to the tense border with Azerbaijan.
"We were right to go there," the Lebanese-born activist told a news
conference in Yerevan. "We will again go there. Nobody can impose his
will on us. We decide what to do." He gave no possible dates for the
next attempt to enter Karabakh.
Sefilian also defended the Founding Parliament's controversial pledges
to topple President Serzh Sarkisian in time for the 100th anniversary
of the Armenian genocide to be marked on April 24. He accused
Sarkisian of leading the country into ruin and spoke of a grave threat
to its independence emanating from membership in the Russian-led
Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
"If we don't achieve regime change very soon we won't achieve it even
several months later and this ruling elite will tell the people that
we are incapable of being an independent state and should hand over
Artsakh to Russian troops and become part of Russia," he said.
The Founding Parliament holds no seats in the National Assembly and is
critical of the mainstream Armenian opposition. It has so far failed
to attract large crowds to its rallies held in Yerevan and other parts
of the country.
Sefilian, 47, has campaigned for regime change in Armenia and against
any territorial concessions to Azerbaijan for almost a decade. He was
arrested in December 2006 after setting up a union of fellow war
veterans opposed to then President Robert Kocharian. Armenia's
National Security Service (NSS) claimed they planned to mount an armed
uprising against the Kocharian government. He denied the charges as
politically motivated.
Sefilian was cleared of the coup charge during his subsequent
trial. Still, he was sentenced to 18 months in prison for illegal arms
possession.
In 2012, the European Court of Human Rights fined the Armenian
authorities 6,000 euros ($6,800) for keeping Sefilian under pre-trial
arrest without sufficient legal grounds. The court also said the NSS
had illegally wiretapped the outspoken oppositionist's phone
conversations.
lragir.am
UNEXPECTED RISK FOR ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
12 February 2015, 15:10
The State Migration Service informed that its head Gagik Yeganyan is
on a business trip to Moscow to try to facilitate the entry of 50-60
thousand citizens of Armenia to Russia.
According to the message, this many citizens cannot visit Russia due
to tougher migration legislation.
The Armenian government has to face the fact. They were trying their
hardest for months on to persuade that membership to the EEU would
unify the labor market, and the citizens of Armenia would leave to
work in Russia more easily. Thereby an attempt was made to legitimize
the act against sovereignty.
After the act it was clear that the public had been deceived, or at
least the part of the public who trusted and expected that labor
migration to Russia would thus be facilitated. It turned out that
50-60 thousand people were left "out", i.e. left in Armenia.
In fact, this is the most serious and to some extent also the
UNEXPECTED RISK FOR ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
12 February 2015, 15:10
The State Migration Service informed that its head Gagik Yeganyan is
on a business trip to Moscow to try to facilitate the entry of 50-60
thousand citizens of Armenia to Russia.
According to the message, this many citizens cannot visit Russia due
to tougher migration legislation.
The Armenian government has to face the fact. They were trying their
hardest for months on to persuade that membership to the EEU would
unify the labor market, and the citizens of Armenia would leave to
work in Russia more easily. Thereby an attempt was made to legitimize
the act against sovereignty.
After the act it was clear that the public had been deceived, or at
least the part of the public who trusted and expected that labor
migration to Russia would thus be facilitated. It turned out that
50-60 thousand people were left "out", i.e. left in Armenia.
In fact, this is the most serious and to some extent also the
tragic aspect of the issue when the citizens demand that the
government help them leave the country instead of employment
and dignity in their own country.
What will be after the problem is resolved? It is not hard to
forecast. Once the problem of entry of 50-60 thousand citizens of
Armenia to Russia is resolved, they will not only work to earn money
but will also work to get Russian citizenship to avoid trouble and
deception.
It goes without saying the resolving the problem of entry is in the
government's interest. The so-called revolution resource is leaving
and eating mouths get fewer. "To stay here to do a revolution?" the
ex-prime minister said.
TURKEY RETURNS 1,014 PROPERTIES TO MINORITY FOUNDATIONS
Daily Sabah, Turkey
Feb 11 2015
Within the context of reforms toward different faith groups in
Turkey, 1,014 confiscated foundation properties have been returned
to minority foundations. According to information obtained from the
Prime Ministry's Office of Public Diplomacy, a 60-acre property that
belonged to the Mor Gabriel Foundation was returned to the Syriac
community in 2013. A statement from the Office of Public Diplomacy
indicated that the land of the Mor Gabriel Monastery is the largest
land to be returned to foundations since the process of returning
seized goods belonging to minority foundations started in 2011. A
42,259-square-meter land that belonged to the Foundation of Yedikule
Surp Pırgic Armenian Hospital was one of the larger restitutions. The
Office of Public Diplomacy underlined that the evaluation process
for some other 150 properties is still ongoing. Furthermore,
the restoration process of houses of prayer used by communities of
different faiths also accelerated. The Sumela Monastery in Trabzon and
Holy Cross Church on Aghtamar in Van, St. Giragos Armenian Church in
Diyarbakır, the Church of St. Mary of Blachernae and Surp Vortvots
Vorodman Church, which belongs to the Mektebi Foundation, were also
reconstructed and opened to worship in recent years.
Currently, 165 community foundations are actively operating in Turkey.
Of these 165 foundations the Greek community owns 76, the Armenian
community owns 53, the Jewish community owns 19, the Syriac community
owns 10, the Chaldean community owns three, the Bulgarian community
owns two, the Georgian community owns one and the Maronite community
owns one.
armenialife.com
Three Cheers for the President…
4 February 2015
By Haig Vartanian
London, UK
serjPres. Serzh Sargsyan’s Declaration on 29 January at the Armenian
What will be after the problem is resolved? It is not hard to
forecast. Once the problem of entry of 50-60 thousand citizens of
Armenia to Russia is resolved, they will not only work to earn money
but will also work to get Russian citizenship to avoid trouble and
deception.
It goes without saying the resolving the problem of entry is in the
government's interest. The so-called revolution resource is leaving
and eating mouths get fewer. "To stay here to do a revolution?" the
ex-prime minister said.
TURKEY RETURNS 1,014 PROPERTIES TO MINORITY FOUNDATIONS
Daily Sabah, Turkey
Feb 11 2015
Within the context of reforms toward different faith groups in
Turkey, 1,014 confiscated foundation properties have been returned
to minority foundations. According to information obtained from the
Prime Ministry's Office of Public Diplomacy, a 60-acre property that
belonged to the Mor Gabriel Foundation was returned to the Syriac
community in 2013. A statement from the Office of Public Diplomacy
indicated that the land of the Mor Gabriel Monastery is the largest
land to be returned to foundations since the process of returning
seized goods belonging to minority foundations started in 2011. A
42,259-square-meter land that belonged to the Foundation of Yedikule
Surp Pırgic Armenian Hospital was one of the larger restitutions. The
Office of Public Diplomacy underlined that the evaluation process
for some other 150 properties is still ongoing. Furthermore,
the restoration process of houses of prayer used by communities of
different faiths also accelerated. The Sumela Monastery in Trabzon and
Holy Cross Church on Aghtamar in Van, St. Giragos Armenian Church in
Diyarbakır, the Church of St. Mary of Blachernae and Surp Vortvots
Vorodman Church, which belongs to the Mektebi Foundation, were also
reconstructed and opened to worship in recent years.
Currently, 165 community foundations are actively operating in Turkey.
Of these 165 foundations the Greek community owns 76, the Armenian
community owns 53, the Jewish community owns 19, the Syriac community
owns 10, the Chaldean community owns three, the Bulgarian community
owns two, the Georgian community owns one and the Maronite community
owns one.
armenialife.com
Three Cheers for the President…
4 February 2015
By Haig Vartanian
London, UK
serjPres. Serzh Sargsyan’s Declaration on 29 January at the Armenian
Genocide Memorial Complex in Yerevan was a revelation : a historical
declaration of great significance. The President should be congratulated
and applauded for making such a courageous statement about the
Armenian legitimate claims against Turkey.
However, if this Declaration is not going to remain a flowery rhetoric and
wither on the vine after 2015, certain concrete steps must be taken now,
and I mean now, to achieve the whole, or part, of the demands of such
a tall order:
a) Present and future governments of the Republic of Armenia, should,
a) Present and future governments of the Republic of Armenia, should,
first, reconcile their political differences with the Diaspora; treating all
organizations of all persuasions, as loyal friends of Armenia . Oceans
and lands may separate Armenians geographically and make them a
global entity, but they cannot separate us spiritually, historically and
economically.
b) Armenia needs to strengthen the economy of the country, raise the
b) Armenia needs to strengthen the economy of the country, raise the
standard of the people living there and start liquidating the prevailing
oligarchical system and cleansing the high level corruption at all
government levels.
c) The President of Armenia should also recognize, the invaluable
c) The President of Armenia should also recognize, the invaluable
contributions that all non-Armenian individuals and organisations
have made in support of recognition of the Genocide during the past
50 years. Scholars and prominent writers may also be invited to Armenia
for a Seminar/conference discussing the future steps to be taken, after
the centenary events, in order to consolidate grounds of our legal
claims.
d) Granted, the pursuit of these goals and activities will inevitably
increase the hostility of our neighbors from hell : Need I spell out
their names? – A&T. Armenia should be militarily strong enough to
withstand their hostilities – both internally and internationally.
e) Finally, Social Media is now a modern weapon with which to wage
e) Finally, Social Media is now a modern weapon with which to wage
a war…. Our young Internet savvy generation, should be able to
conduct such a war using their internet skills.
April 2015 should not be regarded as the end of our pursuit for justice
April 2015 should not be regarded as the end of our pursuit for justice
for our 1.5 million martyrs, but the beginning of the end!
Good luck Armenia, Good luck Diaspora.
RFE/RL Report
Armenia Reports Another Major Drug Bust
12.02.2015
Armenia's National Security Service (NSS) announced on Thursday
Good luck Armenia, Good luck Diaspora.
RFE/RL Report
Armenia Reports Another Major Drug Bust
12.02.2015
Armenia's National Security Service (NSS) announced on Thursday
the arrest of five foreign nationals accused of using Armenian territory
to try to smuggle large quantities of drugs from South America to
Turkey.
The NSS claimed to have seized a total of over 10 kilograms of cocaine
at Yerevan's Zvartnots airport in a special operation against what it
called a "transnational" drug trafficking ring. It said the drugs were
shipped to Armenia on board commercial airliners with the ultimate aim
of being illegally sold in Turkey.
According on the law-enforcement body, the operation began on January
27 with the arrest of two Peruvians who it said flew from Brazil to
Armenia via the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with 2.7 kilograms of
cocaine. It said NSS officers confiscated practically the same amount
of the drug from an Argentinian man who arrived at Zvartnots from Abu
Dhabi on Monday.
Two other alleged drug traffickers, ethnic Arab citizens of Bulgaria,
were caught at Armenia's main international airport on Thursday
moments before boarding a Yerevan-Istanbul flight. The NSS said they
hid 4.8 kilograms of cocaine smuggled from South America in their
suitcases.
The security agency, which is the former Armenian branch of the Soviet
KGB, gave no further details of the reported drug bust. It did not
specify whether the arrested men have confessed to drug trafficking.
The arrests were announced less than a month after an Armenian court
convicted a Turkish man of smuggling 850 kilograms of heroin into
Armenia from Iran and sentenced him to 19 years in prison. The court
also gave a 17-year prison sentence to the Georgian driver of a heavy
truck in which Armenian customs officers deployed on the Iranian
border found the Class A drug in January 2014. Both arrested men
pleaded not guilty to the accusations.
to try to smuggle large quantities of drugs from South America to
Turkey.
The NSS claimed to have seized a total of over 10 kilograms of cocaine
at Yerevan's Zvartnots airport in a special operation against what it
called a "transnational" drug trafficking ring. It said the drugs were
shipped to Armenia on board commercial airliners with the ultimate aim
of being illegally sold in Turkey.
According on the law-enforcement body, the operation began on January
27 with the arrest of two Peruvians who it said flew from Brazil to
Armenia via the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with 2.7 kilograms of
cocaine. It said NSS officers confiscated practically the same amount
of the drug from an Argentinian man who arrived at Zvartnots from Abu
Dhabi on Monday.
Two other alleged drug traffickers, ethnic Arab citizens of Bulgaria,
were caught at Armenia's main international airport on Thursday
moments before boarding a Yerevan-Istanbul flight. The NSS said they
hid 4.8 kilograms of cocaine smuggled from South America in their
suitcases.
The security agency, which is the former Armenian branch of the Soviet
KGB, gave no further details of the reported drug bust. It did not
specify whether the arrested men have confessed to drug trafficking.
The arrests were announced less than a month after an Armenian court
convicted a Turkish man of smuggling 850 kilograms of heroin into
Armenia from Iran and sentenced him to 19 years in prison. The court
also gave a 17-year prison sentence to the Georgian driver of a heavy
truck in which Armenian customs officers deployed on the Iranian
border found the Class A drug in January 2014. Both arrested men
pleaded not guilty to the accusations.
arka.am
OVER 3 MILLION FLOWERS TO BE PLANTED IN YEREVAN IN 2015
[while people still live in Gyumri does since the earthquake]
OVER 3 MILLION FLOWERS TO BE PLANTED IN YEREVAN IN 2015
[while people still live in Gyumri does since the earthquake]
YEREVAN, February 13. / ARKA /. More than three million flowers will
be planted in Yerevan in 2015 as part of a project to increase green
areas of the capital city, the municipality reported.
Some 1.2 million flower seedlings will be brought from Holland. Flower
seedlings are being grown also by several city-owned greenhouses.
Currently some 250,000 flower seedlings are ready for planting.
Overall, the flowers will be planted on an area of 7.5 hectares.
"Last year about 500 thousand tulips were planted in Yerevan. This
year their number will reach 750 thousand, including 500 thousand
to be brought from Holland," Avet Martirosyan, head of the Nature
Conservation Department of the Yerevan Municipality said.
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