Armenian News - Recognition Versus Brinksmanship?

Recognition Versus Brinksmanship?: Kocharyan leaving office amid Azerbaijan’s intensified saber-rattling By Aris Ghazinyan ArmeniaNow reporter Published: 04 April, 2008 In less than a week President Robert Kocharyan will leave his office having served two full consecutive five-year terms, leaving to his successor, among other things, a still unresolved dispute with Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh that became a chief reason for his predecessor Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s early resignation in 1998. Kocharyan will leave the country’s number one post at a time when Armenia has had to intensify its “performance of containment” after a series of encroachments shown by Azerbaijan in the aftermath of the worst internal political crisis seen in Armenia in years. Unprecedented violations of the ceasefire regime by Azeri armed units along the Armenian-controlled border of Nagorno-Karabakh in the days following civil unrest in Yerevan as well as recent diplomatic efforts of Azerbaijan to change the format of negotiations, including a United Nations resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh, appear to have imperiled the further course of the negotiating process and have forced Armenian leaders to look for means to counterbalance Azerbaijan’s growing belligerence. Only nine days before leaving his office, on March 31, Kocharyan responded to the situation in a resolute way as he directly elaborated on Armenia’s possible actions in view of Azerbaijan’s recent attempts to thwart peace efforts. “There are two variants – either an immediate recognition of [Nagorno-Karabakh’s] independence, or, before final recognition, concluding an agreement between the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) and the Republic of Armenia on mutual assistance in the sphere of defense and thwarting possible aggression,” Kocharyan said, incidentally in Karabakh’s capital Stepanakert, his native town. And added: “Such an agreement, I think, will play a preemptive role in staving off bellicose statements.” Delivering the statement Kocharyan sounded like a man determined to work seriously till the last day of his presidency, which overall fit well with his healthy pragmatism. Even the fact that it wasn’t Kocharyan, but his successor Serzh Sargsyan who represented Armenia at this week’s NATO summit in Bucharest means little -- after all, Kocharyan was also absent from all the latest sessions of the UN General Assembly, and in general, has not made a habit of attending large diplomatic forums. Kocharyan’s important statement in Stepanakert is far from being accidental and should be viewed as baton his successor. Despite Armenia’s neighbor’s continuing war rhetoric, it can hardly be expected that the longstanding conflict will be solved under the new presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan (the latter will choose its president late this year, most likely reelecting Ilham Aliyev). The thing is that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem has been viewed by Azerbaijan and Turkey not strictly as a territorial dispute, but as a convenient mechanism of putting pressure on Armenian statehood, up to its total liquidation. This is what in part explains Baku’s well-known position on the readiness of Armenian authorities to serious territorial concessions. It appears that if this problem is solved, the Turkic tandem would have to think of a new mechanism of pressure that would hardly incorporate the whole broad spectrum of Karabakh tension. However, while the first president assumed a more conciliatory stance on this problem, Kocharyan never allowed a hint at Karabakh’s prospect of being a part of Azerbaijan. But even so, he never specified the issue of NKR’s territory – whether it corresponds to the area of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) (4,400 square kilometers) or reflects new (or more precisely original) realities – about 13,000 square kilometers. April 2, official Baku made a surprising statement. “Azerbaijan is ready in the future to provide Armenia with the possibility of a joint use of the Lachin corridor, of course, on condition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity being preserved,” Azerbaijan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said. “The republic’s official authorities are ready to make certain concessions, but the Lachin corridor must remain within Azerbaijan.” This proposal described by official Yerevan as Azerbaijan’s wishful thinking has already been sent to international negotiators represented by the cochairmen of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), a structure whose neutral position at the latest session of the United Nations General Assembly provoked hysteria in Azerbaijan. “I really can’t understand who stands behind these attempts,” U.S. co-chair in the group Matthew Bryza said in an interview with Azerbaijan’s APA news agency. “I can’t understand people who present the discussions at the UN as an endurance test for American-Azerbaijani friendship. We view the resolution proposed by Azerbaijan as one-sided, and the OSCE Minsk Group had no choice other than saying ‘no’ to the document reflecting only Azerbaijan’s interests. Based on principles of neutrality we voted as cochairmen.” Meanwhile, Armenia’s outgoing president once again reassured the public that Karabakh’s status within Azerbaijan was never a subject for discussion during the negotiating process during his time in office. Speaking in Stepanakert, Kocharyan also said that in essence the document offered by the mediators is aimed at recognizing the right of the nation to self-determination. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Eurasia Insight: ARMENIA: YEREVAN BRACES FOR PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION, PROTESTS Marianna Grigoryan: 4/04/08 This article was updated on 4/06/08 to correct a quote attribution and the state of health of opposition activist Suren Sureniants. With less than a week to go before Armeniais presidential inauguration, attention is riveted on whether a new administration will be able to foster a truce in the ongoing political battle between the countryis opposition and government. Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian is due to be sworn in as Armeniais next chief executive on April 9 inside Yerevan's Opera House, adjacent to Freedom Square, the central staging point for past opposition demonstrations. The square remains under tight police control following clashes with protestors on March 1. While authorities are busy preparing for the inauguration ceremony, opposition representatives from about two dozen political parties and other organizations -- those supporting Levon Ter-Petrosian, the second-place finisher in the bitterly disputed presidential election in February -- are looking for new ways to make their dissenting voices heard. On inauguration day itself, the opposition is preparing a public rally and a mourning march to commemorate the victims of the March 1 violence. On April 9, all the Armenian people will commemorate those who died for their freedom, marking it as a day of mourning and resistance, wearing black and with other symbols and ceremonies of mourning,i announced a statement from National Awakening, a union of non-governmental organizations supporting the opposition. While National Awakening pledges that the inauguration day protest will demonstrate votersi resolve to irecoveri the ivictory that was temporarily taken from them,i some analysts question how ready the opposition actually is to launch a fresh campaign against the government. Aside from a recent meeting with Council of Europe representatives, Ter-Petrosian has largely vanished from the public scene, keeping quiet in recent weeks. Most opposition leaders have been arrested or went into hiding after March 1, and subsequent amendments to the law on public meetings have put tough restrictions on public rallies. The amendments have done nothing to allay fears of a fresh crackdown, according to one pro-opposition political analyst. "In reality, such legislative changes banning public rallies and marches and other measures are designed to create an atmosphere of fear among the people, which is against the tenets of human rights," commented Aghasi Yenokian. "Creating an atmosphere of fear cannot solve any problem." To get around the law, other forms of protest have been found. A few days after the oppositionis March 21 march, the first since the March 1 crackdown, many Yerevan residents began to take part in so-called "popular or political walks" around town. The site for these impromptu strolls changed each day; other participants played chess on sidewalks, read books on benches or staged debates among themselves. Under the amendments, rallies can be banned if the police and National Security Service consider that they involve hate speech, agitation for violence, or calls to overthrow "the constitutional order" by force. While open-air book reading and chess playing do not fall under those categories, the unstructured protests still have drawn a police response. "They began to put people en masse into police cars and take them to police stations. Don't they have the right to walk?" commented Ruzan Khachatrian, a spokeswoman for the People's Party of Armenia, one of the parties that supported Ter-Petrosian's candidacy. "I have lived in the city center for more than 20 years and they [police] hamper my right to walk. I will go to court." Opposition journalist and publicist Tigran Paskevichian, who was also detained by police while on "a political stroll", says that he was released after spending some time in a police station answering questions. "I was asked what I was doing there, I said I was reading a book. They asked whether I couldn't find another place for reading a book," said Paskevichian. Governing Republican Party of Armenia spokesman Eduard Sharmazanov says that political motivations should not be sought in the application of the law. "There must be law and order in this country where there is an aspiration for democracy," Sharmazanov told EurasiaNet.org. "There is a court for complaints where rights are defended. We ourselves are advocates of a country where laws are respected." When adopting the amendments on the law on assembly, MPs included a special provision for it to come into effect the day after its official publication, rather than 10 days after that date, as is customary. A number of prominent local and international organizations have taken issue with the amendments, calling on authorities to respect the rights of opposition detainees. In a joint paper released April 2, the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights criticized the Armenian government, saying that "they [the amendments] restrict further the right of assembly in a significant fashion." Meanwhile, a March 27 report issued by Human Rights Watch stated that the amendments "violate Armenia's obligation to respect peaceful assembly." It also noted that the changes "effectively punish peaceful demonstrators for the violence that took place on March 1." Arrests of walking protestors reportedly have decreased in the last four days, coinciding with a fact-finding visit by the AGO Group of the Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers. The envoys, charged with monitoring Armeniais compliance with Council of Europe membership requirements, met both with government officials and with Ter-Petrosian. At a joint news conference on March 31 with Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian, AGO Group head Per Sjogren said that the envoys advocated a six-point proposal to return the situation in Armenia to a "democratic path." The AGO Group has proposed starting a national inquiry into the March 1 events with involvement by foreign experts. Revising the amendments restricting public rallies, releasing political prisoners, ensuring detainee's rights to see their family and embarking on a "national dialogue" between opposition and the government were among the additional points. "I think that the proposals are aimed at improving the situation," Oskanian said. "But only discussion will show what final results they will produce." As yet, no sign exists that such dialogue is imminent. On April 2, about three dozen detainees held in pre-trial detention for attempting to foster a revolution went on a hunger strike. Without an end to ithe torture of innocent peoplei and re-examination of their cases, the group pledged to stage an "open-ended" hunger strike as of April 9. One senior opposition member, Suren Sureniants of the Republic (Hanrapetutiun) Party, has been on a hunger strike since March 24; his condition is reported to be unstable. At his press conference, the Council of Europe's Sjogren told journalists that he had "received a positive answer" when he asked about the release of prisoners "kept in custody for political activities." Said Sjogren: "The answer implies that this problem will get a solution." After his inauguration, Sarkisian will come under pressure to restore a sense of political equilibrium in Yerevan. If reconciliation efforts stall, Armenia could suffer some serious financial consequences. In a March 11 letter, the head of the US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation warned outgoing President Robert Kocharian that "recent events could have negative effects on Armeniais eligibility for MCC funding." The country is scheduled to receive $235.6 million in assistance funds through the program For now, US diplomats in Yerevan seem inclined to give president-elect Sarkisian the benefit of the doubt. "We think it is only fair to give the new administration time to turn the situation around," US Charge diAffairs Joseph Pennington said at a March 28 press conference. "So if we see those negative trends turn into a positive direction, obviously that will have a positive impact on the decisions of Millennium Challenge Corporation." Editoris Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a reporter for the ArmeniaNow.com weekly in Yerevan. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

IMF FORECASTS INFLATION IN ARMENIA TO EXCEED THE LEVEL TARGETED IN ARMENIA'S BUDGET IN 2008
arminfo
2008-04-03 17:46:00

ArmInfo. By the end of 2008, inflation in Armenia will exceed the
4%(+/-1,5%) level targeted by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA),
International Monetary Fund's Resident Representative in Armenia
Ms. Nienke Oomes said in an interview with ArmInfo's correspondent.

She said that the reason for exceeding of the inflation targeted
in Armenia is mainly connected with the growth in international
food prices. "We are sure today that inflation will be higher than
targeted at the end of 2008 but it is still hard to say how much
higher it will be", she said. The IMF representative added that in
March 2008 inflation made up 9.6% as compared with March 2007, 7.5%
in February 2008 as compared with February 2007, and 6.6% in January
2008 as compared with January 2007.

Nienke Oomes noted that food expenditures in Armenia total 53,9%, of
which 14,9% - on bread and cereal products, and this characterizes
the high poverty level in the country. Nevertheless, according
to the results of 2007 the lowest inflation among CIS countries
was registered in Armenia, while, at the same time, comparatively
high import prices are observed in Armenia, she said. She partially
explained this situation by high monopolization at in the domestic
market, which constrains development of competitiveness in the country.

She added that the IMF does not recommend the CBA to change its
inflation target, because it is not in the CBA's power to restrain
the growth of prices in the republic resulting from external
factors. However, if the increase in food prices in Armenia causes
increases in other prices, for instance, in the sphere of public
catering. Armenia's authorities will have to decrease the influence
of this secondary effect, Oomes said.

First and foremost, inflation will affect the living standards of the
poor segments of the population, and as 26.5% are below the poverty
line in Armenia, the high growth in prices may cause social tension
in the country.

Furthermore, production costs may increase, and this will have a
negative effect on the state of the whole economy of Armenia. If
inflation begins to exceeds 10%, this may even slow down the GDP
growth rates, the IMF representative said.

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Baghdasarian Says No Agreement Yet On Government
By Hovannes Shoghikian

Former parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian said on Friday that he
still does not know which ministerial positions will be offered to his
Orinats Yerkir Party as part of its power-sharing agreement with Prime
Minister and President-elect Serzh Sarkisian.

Orinats Yerkir is one of four pro-establishment parties that are
expected to be represented in a new coalition government which Sarkisian
plans to form after his inauguration on April 9. In a joint communiqué,
they pledged to `deepen democratic reforms' in Armenia and speed up its
economic development.

However, it is still not clear who will head and make up the cabinet.
Hrant Markarian, a leader of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation
(Dashnaktsutyun), told RFE/RL on Wednesday that the four parties are
discussing its composition and have not reached agreement yet.

But according to Baghdasarian, such discussions have not even started.
`Immediately after the inauguration of the newly elected president we
will have an opportunity to discuss the format of the coalition
government and other issues,' he said.

Baghdasarian, who was a major opposition candidate in the February 19
presidential election, recognized Sarkisian's victory in the disputed
vote and agreed to join the new governing coalition even before the
announcement of the four-party agreement. Sarkisian promised to appoint
him as secretary of Armenia's National Security Council.

Speaking at a news conference, Baghdasarian insisted that his decision
to bring Orinats Yerkir back into government was not incompatible with
strong criticism of the Armenian authorities that was voiced in his
pre-election speeches. In particular, he alleged during the election
campaign that the authorities are deliberately keeping many Armenians
mired in poverty in order to be able to buy their votes.

`We have entered the government for the sake of reforms,' the Orinats
Yerkir leader argued on Friday. `Also, the essence of the government has
changed.'

`I have presented my political demands to the person who has assumed the
post of president of the republic and who has offered dignified
cooperation, taking into account the votes garnered by me,' he said.

Baghdasarian also expressed confidence that his decision to team up with
Sarkisian did not disappoint and alienate most of about 260,000
Armenians who, according to official election results, voted for him.
`There isn't much discontent [among them,]' he said. `The vast majority
of the people think very positively of our decision.'

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Interfax News Agency, Russia
April 4 2008
Armenia expects to boost grape harvest 5%-10% in 2008
YEREVAN April 4


Armenia's grape harvest could amount to 230,000-240,000 tonnes in
2008, up 5%-10% from 2007, according to preliminary estimates, Garnik
Petrosian, head of the Armenian Agriculture Ministry's crops
department, told Interfax.

The favorable weather this season contributed to the larger harvest,
he said. "If vineyards perished somewhere, it was solely due to the
negligence of the winegrowers," he said.

Viticulture is developing rapidly in Armenia, as evidenced by the
annual growth in the land planted with vineyards, he said. The total
area of vineyards grew by 1,500 hectares to 19,800 hectares in 2007.

This growth is the result of an increase in demand for grapes by wine
and cognac producers, he said.

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WHITEFISH POPULATION IN ARMENIA'S SEVAN REDUCES 40% IN 2007
ARKA
April 3, 2008

YEREVAN, April 3. /ARKA/. Whitefish (sig) population totaled 600 tons
in Armenia's Sevan Lake by the end of 2007, which is a 40% reduction
as compared with 2006, the Chief of Department for biological resources
of Armenian Environmental Ministry Karen Chenterechian said.

In 2006, whitefish population was 1,000 tons, whereas in 1998 it was
1,800 tons, he reported. The greatest population of whitefish was
recorded in 1970-1990ies - about 2,000 tons. Chenterechian also said
that the population reduced due to decreasing volume of plankton,
wrong fishing management and improper fishing instruments.

Sevan holds over 90% of the fish reserves of Armenia and particular
importance should be attached to maintain stable quantity of the
population in the lake, he said. Koghak, crucian carp, ishkhan
also inhabit in Sevan, yet the Ministry has not provided any exact
monitoring data on the quantity.

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