Financial Times - Turkey faces months of political stalemate
Turkey faces a fresh bout of political and economic uncertainty after the country’s highest court agreed on Monday to hear a prosecutor’s case to shut down the governing Justice and Development party (AKP), in a throwback to previous judicial assaults on political parties the secular elite dislikes or distrusts.
AKP, which has its roots in political Islam, is accused by senior prosecutors of trying to impose Sharia law in militantly secular Turkey.
The case has shocked and divided the country and undermined the financial markets. Analysts predict months of stalemate as the two sides battle it out for legitimacy in the eyes of an increasingly jaundiced public.
The case also accuses Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, Abdullah Gul, the president, and senior AKP leaders of “anti-secular activities”. If found guilty they face being banned from political activity for five years.
Turkey’s secular elite – which includes the military, the judiciary and parts of the political opposition – has long accused the party of having a “hidden agenda” to turn Turkey into an Islamist nation, an accusation the party strongly rejects. The easing in February of a ban on the wearing of the Muslim headscarf at university was the immediate spark for the prosecution, but it still came as a shock to many Turks.
The party’s defenders say the resort to the judicial system to clip the AKP’s wings is unfair and undemocratic.
The court’s decision on Monday was expected, but it will have serious repercussions for Turkey.
The country is struggling to reach a modus vivendi between the secularists and the AKP, to join the European Union, to implement wide-ranging structural reforms in a dynamic but lopsided economy, and to close the gap in expectations, educational attainment, and incomes between the big western cities and the majority who live in Anatolia, the AKP’s heartland.
These struggles are part of a wider and much older battle between democracy and secularism. The AKP, which won 47 per cent of the popular vote in July’s general election, claims democratic legitimacy in seeking to satisfy its core constituency of social conservatives.
The secularists cite the constitution, which mandates both the strict separation of religion and politics, and the tight control of religious practice by the state.
Some commentators have compared the court case against the AKP to a judicial coup d’etat against an elected government. Others say it will have a critical bearing on whether Turkey can modernise and become more like the European countries – Germany, Britain and France – with which it insists, based on its size and history, on being compared in other spheres.
Omer Taspinar, one of Turkey’s leading liberal commentators, wrote on Monday that the EU could conclude from the case only the fact that Turkey was not a mature enough democracy to become a member of the Union.
“The issue is no longer whether Turkey can become more liberal,” he wrote. “It is rather whether Turkey can maintain a semblance of democracy.”
The 11 constitutional court judges voted unanimously to hear the case, which means that they believe the AKP has a case to answer.
The party has a month to prepare a defence, but most observers believe no final verdict can be expected until at least the fourth quarter of 2008, given the political nature of the case and the vagaries of the judicial system. “One thing is clear – that political uncertainty will prevail in the remainder of the year,” said Ozgur Altug, of Raymond James Securities in Istanbul.
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AKP case depresses Istanbul stock market
by Vincent Boland in Ankara
Published: April 1 2008 03:00 | Last updated: April 1 2008 03:00
Turkey's highest court yesterday sent investors running for cover after judges agreed to hear a case that could lead to the closure of the governing party and to long bans for the country's political leaders.
Shares on the Istanbul stock market - 72 per cent of which are foreign-owned - fell nearly 3 per cent and the lira continued to tumble against the euro at the prospect of months of political and economic uncertainty.
The country's chief prosecutor accuses the Justice and Development party (AKP) and its leaders, all with roots in political Islam, of trying to impose sharia law. The case has divided the country, which has a tradition of militant secularism, and undermined the financial markets.
Foreign investors heavily exposed to Turkish assets and nervous over global market turmoil took fright at the prospect of rising political risk in Turkey, one of the best-performing emerging markets over the past few years.
Ozgur Altug, an economist at Raymond James Securities in Istanbul, said: "Maybe the courts won't close the AKP, but you can forget about any reforms for the next six to eight months."
The Istanbul market is about 28 per cent lower so far this year on the back of the deteriorating international environment. Turkey is dependent on foreign investment inflows to finance its current account deficit, which some forecasts say could reach $46bn (€29bn, £23bn) in 2008, or about 5.5 per cent of GDP.
The case against the AKP accuses Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, Abdullah Gul, the president, and senior party leaders of "anti-secular activities". It is closely connected to a decision by the government in February to ease restrictions on wearing the Muslim headscarf at universities. The AKP's opponents saw that as a typical example of the party's "majoritarian" approach to government, in which it exploits its huge parliamentary majority to pass laws aimed exclusively at its socially conservative electoral base.
A few hours before the constitutional court announced its decision yesterday, official figures showed a sharp slowdown in economic growth in 2007. Gross domestic product expanded by 4.5 per cent for the year, compared to 6.9 per cent in 2006, and below the official target of 5 per cent.
Economists at ExpresInvest, a brokerage in Istanbul, said Turkey had "entered a period of high political volatility".
The 11 constitutional court judges voted unanimously to hear the case, which could last all year. While the court's decision was expected, analysts warned that the threat to close the AKP, which won a landslide election victory eight months ago, could lead to months of stalemate and a long legal battle at a time when Turkey faces critical decisions on the European Union and economic reform.
It represents a new and potentially decisive round in a long fight for legitimacy between the party and Turkey's secular elite - the military, the judiciary, and the republican opposition. They accuse the AKP of having a "hidden agenda" to turn Turkey into an Islamist society, a charge the AKP denies.
Party officials said yesterday the resort to the judicial system to clip the AKP's wings was an attempt to derail European Union inspired reforms.
Suat Kiniklioglu, an AKP member of parliament, told the Financial Times: "This case is being used by the establishment as a last chance to subvert the transformation of this country. It is a sad day for Turkish democracy."
The court has ordered the closure of 26 political parties in the past 50 years, including two of the AKP's overtly Islamist predecessors.
Shutting down the party
Some 26 political parties have been closed down in Turkey since the advent of multiparty democracy in the 1950s. The constitutional court has upheld every closure petition so far. Most closures were for reasons such as lack of members and abuse of party funds.
1998 The constitutional court closed the largest party in the parliament, the pro-Islamist Welfare party, on the basis that it had violated constitutional obligations to respect Turkey's strict secular principles. The court seized the ruling party's assets and banned its leaders from politics for five years.
2001 The pro-Islamist Virtue party, the main opposition to the government, was banned on the grounds it had become the focus of anti-secular activities.
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