Monday 17 March 2008

Armenian News - PM Election

SARKISIAN RULES OUT JOB SWAP WITH KOCHARIAN
Radio Liberty
March 14 2008
Czech Republic

President Robert Kocharian will not after all become Armenia's prime
minister after completing his second and final term in office early
next month, Prime Minister and President-elect Serzh Sarkisian said
late Thursday.

Kocharian's political future has for months been the subject of
speculation, with most local observers expecting him seek to retain
a key role in government affairs after resigning as head of state. He
has been specifically linked with the post of prime minister.

Kocharian seemingly boosted his chances of landing the job by playing
a crucial role in the suppression of opposition protests against the
official results of last month's disputed presidential election that
gave victory to Sarkisian.

Sarkisian quashed that speculation as he spent more than two hours
answering questions from Armenians on national television. He said
that had he and Kocharian really agreed to swap their positions they
would have informed the nation about that in advance of the February
19 election. "If such a scenario had been possible, we would have
announced this before the election the way Russian President Vladimir
Putin and [President-elect] Dmitry Medvedev did," he said.

Sarkisian again asserted that he has still not decided whom to name
prime minister after being sworn in as Armenia's president on April
9. Meeting with university students in Yerevan earlier this week,
the outgoing premier said his new cabinet will be radically different
from the existing one. It is expected to comprise representatives of
Sarkisian's Republican Party, the pro-Kocharian Prosperous Armenia
Party, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation and the hitherto
opposition Orinats Yerkir Party of former parliament speaker Artur
Baghdasarian.

In his televised remarks, Sarkisian indicated that he is ready
to engage in dialogue with his main election challenger, former
President Levon Ter-Petrosian, only if the latter recognizes his
election victory. "If Levon Ter-Petrosian continues to claim that he
was elected president with 65 percent of the vote, reject the decision
of the Constitutional Court and call me a bandit and Mongol-Tatar,
what kind of a dialogue can we have?" he said.

Sarkisian further defended the Armenian authorities' tough response
to Ter-Petrosian's post-election demonstrations in Yerevan, saying
that they did "everything possible" to avoid the loss of life on
March 1. He claimed that security forces never intended to disperse
more than 2,000 Ter-Petrosian supporters camped in the city's Liberty
Square and only wanted to search for weapons allegedly hoarded there.

He said they used force only after meeting fierce resistance from
the protesters.

The break-up of the Liberty Square sit-in led tens of thousands of
opposition supporters to re-assemble and barricade themselves in
another location in the city center later on March 1. At least seven
of them were killed in ensued clashes with riot police armed with
shields, truncheons, stun grenades and automatic weapons.

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ARMENIAN MEDIA BAN STILL IN FORCE
Radio Liberty
March 14 2008
Czech Republic

Armenia's leading newspapers critical of the government were unable to
resume publication on Friday despite a softening of the controversial
government ban on independent news reporting announced by President
Robert Kocharian.

The Armenian authorities also failed to unblock access to the websites
of RFE/RL's Armenian service and local online news services.

Under the 20-day state of emergency declared by Kocharian on March 1,
the Armenian media could only cite the government and law-enforcement
bodies when covering national politics. More than a dozen independent
and opposition publications suspended or were forced to suspend their
operations as a result. In a decree signed on Thursday, Kocharian said
they can resume their work so long as they do not publish "obviously
false or destabilizing information."

The editors of seven newspapers affected by the severe restrictions
said censors from the National Security Service (NSS), the Armenian
successor to the Soviet KGB, ordered the printers not to publish
their Friday editions after examining their content. Only one of the
papers, "Aravot," was said to have been given an explanation of the
publication ban.

"There was a KGB censor at the Tigran Mets printing company who locked
himself in a room and made phone calls to his superiors," the "Aravot"
editor, Aram Abrahamian, told RFE/RL. "He then told my deputy that
[a newspaper article about opposition leader] Levon Ter-Petrosian's
news conference contains obviously false information and that the
newspaper can therefore not be printed."

"I suppose the authorities did not want to see balanced information
containing their views along with those of the opposition," said
Abrahamian. "They want to make sure that only their opinion, their
version of events is made public."

"Nothing has changed. NSS employees continue to sit at printing
shops and check the newspaper content," agreed Hayk Gevorgian, acting
editor of "Haykakan Zhamanak," Armenia's best-selling daily staunchly
supportive of Ter-Petrosian.

Local online publications not controlled by the government are
similarly unable to resume their work. Haykazn Ghahriyan, editor
of Lragir.am, said Internet service providers told him that the NSS
has not yet allowed them to revise the list of news websites blocked
following the imposition of emergency rule.

The chief executive of Armenia's largest Internet firm, Arminco,
confirmed this. "I am looking for [NSS] officials with whom I can
discuss the problem," Andranik Aleksanian told RFE/RL. "Maybe they
just forgot to drop the restrictions."

An NSS spokesman refused to comment on the situation, referring
all inquiries to Kocharian's press service. Victor Soghomonian, the
presidential press secretary, confirmed that the former KGB is tasked
with enforcing the media restrictions. He suggested that the newspapers
in questions were prevented from publishing because they violated
conditions spelled out in the presidential decree. It was signed by
Kocharian amid mounting international pressure on Armenian government
to lift the state of emergency and the resulting restrictions.

In a joint statement, the seven newspapers and three online
publications brushed aside Kocharian's decree as a "wretched attempt
to mislead the international community and the Armenian public."

"With such provincial tricks, it is impossible to create a semblance of
democracy and thereby counter authoritative international structures'
legitimate demands to ensure freedom of speech and end illegal
restrictions and bans," they said. "We regard the actions of the
Armenian authorities, ostensibly aimed at restoring internal stability,
as an attempt to maintain dictatorship."

In a Thursday interview with RFE/RL, Justice Minister Gevorg Danielian
admitted that the notion of "obviously false information" can be
open to "differing interpretations." Still, he came up with his own
explanation of the term not defined by Armenian law. "It is when you
have clear-cut official information from several sources, know what
a particular fact is, but then get different information which is
not only unconfirmed but does not correspond to the existing facts
in any way," he said.

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Dim Prospects for Sarkissian after Armenia's Post-election Violence
Blanka Hancilova

The violent suppression of the opposition rally on 1-2 March has opened up a gaping schism in the Armenian body politic. Following the deaths of at least several dozen protesters, the Kocharyan-Sarkissian duo is bound to lose some supporters, while some neutral voters may chose to join the opposition. The battle for power may be drawn out, and its conclusion is far from certain but, so far, it is evident that the foundations of the ruling regime have been profoundly shaken.

BACKGROUND: The 19 February 2008 presidential election in Armenia was expected to see a smooth transfer of power from the current president, Robert Kocharyan, to his long-time ally and current prime minister, Serzh Sarkissian. But Armenia’s first president turned opposition leader after a long absence from the political scene, Levon Ter-Petrossian, turned it into a bitter contest, drawing his supporters to the streets in record numbers, a sight unseen in Yerevan since the 1990s. According to official results, Serzh Sarkissian won the election in the first round, securing 52.8 per cent of the cast, while Ter-Petrossian trailed behind with 21.5 per cent.

The opposition alleges that mass fraud had taken place. Although independent information is hard to come by, Human Rights Watch documented the bullying and intimidation of opposition observers. On election day, numerous violent incidents and irregularities were reported such as vote buying, ‘carousel’ voting (where the same people vote repeatedly), irregularities in the military’s voting and, crucially, in vote counting.

Nevertheless, according to the preliminary findings of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights election observation mission, the election “was administered mostly in line with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards.” Despite this finding, opposition parties heavily criticized the conduct of the elections.

The opposition contested the results and hit the streets for 11 days of non-stop protests. Many other opposition leaders rallied behind Ter-Petrossian. At the same time, a number of opposition politicians were detained and some senior foreign ministry officials and prosecutors, who publicly backed the opposition, were dismissed.

As the government felt increasingly insecure, it offered to set up a coalition government and managed to co-opt one of the most influential figures – former National Assembly Speaker and Chair of the “Orinats Yerkir” party, 40 year-old Arthur Baghdasarian. Following this success, in the early hours of 1 March, the police dispersed a rally at Yerevan’s Liberty Square and Ter-Petrossian was placed under de facto house arrest.

Yerevan ViolenceNotwithstanding the events earlier in the morning, later in the day protesters gathered in Miasniakian square, in the vicinity of the City Administration Hall and the embassies of France, Italy and Russia. During the day, there were possibly several hundred thousand people waiting for Ter-Petrossian, but also a strong police, interior forces and army presence.
By the evening, the atmosphere had become extremely tense and a violent standoff was widely expected. At the same time, the opposition leaders that had organized the rally disavowed and condemned incidents of violence, blaming them on government provocateurs. Small-scale violent incidents started to take place, and the looting of shops in downtown Yerevan also began. In the evening, about 10,000 protesters were still present at the square, burning cars and engaged in running battles with the security forces.

Late on 1 March, outgoing President Kocharyan introduced a state of emergency for 20 days, which was upheld by the parliament. Media freedoms, freedom of assembly and political activity remain suspended.

Shortly after emergency rule was declared, security forces advanced towards the protesters and, according to official information, a violent standoff occurred which left at least eight people dead and about two hundred injured. Unofficial sources speak of at least 20 dead, and possibly up to 50.

Subsequent international reactions criticized the government for use of excessive force and violence to disperse demonstrators.

IMPLICATIONS: Ter-Petrossian’s success in running a popular campaign has shaken the governing Kocharyan-Sarkissian duo which, after ten years in power, seems to have grossly underestimated the extent of public dissatisfaction with the regime. The authorities clearly did not expect Ter-Petrossian to be capable of mustering a wave of popular protests, particularly given that he remains unpopular amongst many Armenians who remember the economic hardships that plagued his presidency in 1990s, while many disapprove of his position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, not only did he manage to attract people to the streets, but he has also managed to coalesce the fractious opposition political forces around him and, moreover, against the ruling regime. All of this occurred without Ter-Petrossian offering any specific program of change apart from a change of regime from the Kocharyan-Sarkissian “kleptocracy”. Especially worrying for Kocharyan and Sarkissian, who both come from Nagorno-Karabakh, were the signs of defections from the Yerevan elite in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the prosecutor’s office.

The electoral success, even if contested by the opposition, could have given Sarkissian a chance to re-assert control by playing on the opposition’s lack of internal coherence and a united program. Co-opting Arthur Baghdasarian was an important step in this regard. On the other hand, it is not clear how much power Baghdasarian now commands. Ter-Petrossian has been claiming for some time now that Baghdasarian’s supporters are joining him and Baghdasarian’s u-turn is unlikely to fare well with his voters.

On the other hand, the external situation played in the regime’s hands. The lack of foreign media attention to Armenia, the largely benevolent and superficial reports of international observers, and the keen interest of all neighbors and major powers to prevent any new hotspot from emerging made it easier for the government to quell the opposition tide. However, the death of protesters is a watershed which has made Armenia’s political future all too uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS: It is too early to tell how the political situation in Armenia will develop. However, several observations can be offered. To begin with, the options of the incumbent regime seem to be very limited. It is likely to try to run things ‘as usual’, put the blame for post-electoral violence on the opposition led by Ter-Petrossian and, step-by-step, isolate him. Co-opting Baghdasarian was one of the first steps in this direction. It remains to be seen whether Baghdasarian will be able to recover his credibility with his electorate and whether he will emerge as a serious contender for high-level political posts in the future.

But even if Sarkissian succeeds in calming the situation down, and keeps himself in power, his credibility has been severely undermined. Even many of his current supporters are likely to blame him for the events of 1-2 March for years to come. It is possible that the whole institution of the presidency could be weakened as a result, and that power will increasingly gravitate to the National Assembly.

The outgoing president, Robert Kocharyan, has not announced his future plans, but it is widely believed that he will implement the ‘Russian scenario’ and replace Sarkissian as prime minister. By doing so, he will be able to contribute to the consolidation of his and Sarkissian’s power.

As for Ter-Petrossian, it remains to be seen whether his supporters will be able to sustain a protracted public protest when the state of emergency lifts. Should he be unsuccessful, he may have lost possibly his last chance to re-enter Armenian politics. So far, many of his supporters have been imprisoned, and some charged with attempting a coup d’état. Many went into hiding, fearing reprisals from the authorities.

In the short term, Armenia is likely to remain volatile, and the possibility of renewed violence is present. In the mid-term, two scenarios can be envisaged: stabilization with a broad coalition government with simmering discontent and pressures to ‘re-open’ the political and media space; or increasingly hard authoritarianism, essentially military rule, keeping the opposition in jail.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Dr. Blanka Hancilova is analyst of international relations with a focus on the CIS and the co-founder of Apreco Consulting Group.

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