Commentary
Turmoil and Tragedy in Yerevan:
Some Painful Thoughts
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier

In my last column, I expressed the hope that the post-election crisis in
Armenia would be resolved peacefully. Alas, it was not to be. During last
weekend's street clashes at least eight people were killed, over a hundred injured,
stores looted, and scores of cars and buses burned. In the aftermath of these
confrontations and the ensuing vandalism, some ravaged streets of Yerevan looked
like worn-torn Baghdad, deeply saddening Armenians worldwide. Since the
imposition of a 20-day state of emergency, an uneasy calm prevails in Armenia.

Here are my thoughts in the aftermath of these very tragic events:

-- A small country like Armenia, surrounded by enemies, can ill-afford to
weaken itself through internecine struggles that would make it vulnerable to
possible foreign attacks by hostile neighbors which are waiting for the
opportunity to capture not only Artsakh, but parts of the Republic of Armenia.

-- The violence of the last few days tarnishes the international image of
Armenia and undermines the legitimacy of its government. After these tragic
events, Armenia's leaders would have greater difficulty in resisting outside
pressures to force compromises on vital national interests, such as the independence
of Artsakh, the reaffirmation of the Armenian Genocide or the lifting of the
Turkish blockade.

-- No one should appeal to external groups or governments to intervene in
Armenia's internal affairs. Foreign entities pursue their own agendas to the
detriment of Armenia's national interests. It is incumbent upon Armenians to put
their own house in order.

-- Political groups should exhibit high level of maturity and strive to come
together at a time of national emergency in order to prevent the country from
further dissension and instability. A coalition government should be formed
immediately composed of various political factions. Electoral disputes should be
resolved through legal avenues and political dialogue rather than street
clashes.

-- Throughout the campaign and in the aftermath of the elections, many angry
and rabble-rousing words were uttered by some presidential candidates and
their supporters. It is high time that everyone tones down the rhetoric and speaks
in calm and measured words. Everyone should be able to freely express his or
her opinion without resorting to insults, harassment and intimidation.

-- In these tumultuous times, it behooves all Armenians to be extremely
cautious in lending credence to unsubstantiated rumors that further disorient the
naive and unsuspecting public and create chaos and panic.

-- Ever since Armenia's independence in 1991, the majority of the population
has lived in poverty, making many feel alienated and frustrated, leading them
to acts of desperation. Most of the street violence committed over the weekend
was not the work of a particular political group, but individual hooligans
who took advantage of the chaotic situation to rob, pillage and burn.

-- Last week's bloody clashes have regrettably shown once again that
Armenians lack political maturity - a flaw in their national character throughout much
of their long history.

-- Armenians should not discriminate against each other. They should not
disparage each other on the basis of one's place of birth, religious persuasion or
political affiliation. No distinctions should be made between those from
Armenia, Artsakh or the Diaspora. It is simply unacceptable to divide Armenians
and pit them against each another.

-- Two opposition parties have asked the Constitutional Court of Armenia, the
highest court of the land, to review the legitimacy of the February 19
presidential elections. All sides should respect the judgment of the Court, even if
they disagree with it.

-- After the Constitutional Court pronounces its verdict, the state of
emergency should be lifted to restore normalcy to the capital.

-- Finally, an impartial non-governmental panel, possibly composed of wise
and respected elders, should review all actions taken prior and during the
clashes and make an objective assessment of the guilt and innocence of all
involved, be they members of the opposition or the government. All those who incited
and provoked the confrontations, regardless of their identities and positions,
should be held responsible for the great human and material losses. Also, all
those who engaged in fraudulent activities during the elections should be
tried and punished in order to discourage such illegalities in the future.

NO SIGN OF NEGOTIATIONS IN ARMENIA STANDOFF: OSCE
By James Kilner
Reuters
March 3 2008
UK

YEREVAN (Reuters) - Armenia's main opposition group and the government
are unlikely to start negotiations soon to end a standoff which
triggered rioting that killed eight people, a European envoy said on
Monday after he met both parties.

Soldiers patrolled Yerevan's streets after President Robert Kocharyan
imposed emergency laws on Saturday following clashes between police and
protesters -- the worst civil violence in Armenia since independence
from the Soviet Union in 1991.

The protesters accuse Kocharyan's ally and Prime Minister Serzh
Sarksyan of rigging a presidential election last month. Opposition
leader and former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan blamed police brutality
for the violence.

"In all likeliness this kind of dialogue between Ter-Petrosyan and
the government at the moment is not possible," Heikki Talvitie,
a special envoy for the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE), told reporters after being asked if the two sides
would start negotiations.

"But let's not exclude it from the future," he added.

A U.S. State Department spokesman said Washington was sending
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza to help "facilitate
discussions" between the government and opposition. But he stressed
Bryza would not carry out "formal mediation".

"This is a situation where we need to see both the parties work with
one another, engage in dialogue, not violence," the spokesman said.

EMERGENCY LAWS

Ter-Petrosyan has told his supporters not to rally during the 20-day
emergency laws which ban meetings but he has also said he is prepared
to continue the protests afterwards.

"He's very determined, very charismatic," a Western diplomat said.

"He'll find it difficult to step back from this now."

Kocharyan and Sarksyan have presided over a period of economic growth,
but detractors accuse their government of corruption and nepotism.

Ter-Petrosyan was Armenia's first president after it broke away from
the Soviet Union, and although street demonstrations forced him to
resign in 1998 he is still loved by many who want an alternative to
the current government.

Witnesses saw police fire tracer rounds above the heads of protesters
and lob tear gas into the crowd on Saturday. Protesters armed with
metal bars and petrol bombs torched cars and looted shops.

The emergency laws ban public meetings and restrict media reporting.

Armoured personnel carriers were still guarding the main square on
Monday, but traffic has returned to the streets and shops were open.

"It was very bad on Saturday," Sahak, a 25-year-old unemployed man,
said as he watched workers hammer together a broken metal shelf in
a looted supermarket.

"But we now really hope that is all over."

Sarksyan officially won 53 percent of the vote and Ter-Petrosyan
won 21.5 percent, in an election the OSCE described as flawed but
sufficient for Armenia to fulfil its international obligations.

Diplomats expect a harsher follow-up report from the OSCE this week.

(Additional reporting by Margarita Antidze and Hasmik Mkrtchyan;
editing by Andrew Roche)

WORLD URGES END OF EMERGENCY RULE IN ARMENIA
Radio Liberty
March 4 2008
Czech Republic

The international community has called on Armenia's authorities to
lift a state of emergency and the resulting severe restrictions on
media freedom that were imposed following the violent confrontation
between security forces and opposition supporters in Yerevan.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said late Monday that
he is "deeply concerned about the violent clashes" over the weekend,
which left at least eight people dead, and hopes that they will be
"thoroughly investigated." According to AFP news agency, Ban appealed
to Armenian authorities "to take all necessary steps to ensure a
return to normalcy, including through a speedy lifting of the state
of emergency."

"I urge the Armenian government to lift the state of emergency declared
on March 1," European Union External Relations Commissioner Benita
Ferrero-Waldner said in a separate statement.

"I also call on the Armenian authorities to lift any restrictions on
free movement for former presidential candidate Levon Ter-Petrosian
and to release any citizens detained for exercising their right to
peaceful assembly," she said, according to AFP.

The statement came as the EU's special envoy to the South Caucasus,
met in Yerevan with President Robert Kocharian, Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian to discuss ways of resolving Armenia's
most serious political crisis in nearly a decade. "We hope that full
media freedoms will be restored soon and that the state of emergency
can be lifted," Semneby told RFE/RL on Tuesday.

"It goes without saying that a dialogue involving society in broader
terms can not take place without the active and extremely important
role of the media," he said.

The 20-day emergency rule means that media outlets have to cite only
official sources when reporting on national politics. Seven leading
Armenian newspapers, which are either independent or opposition-linked,
have refused to operate in such conditions and suspended their
publication as a result. Also, the authorities have suspended
retransmission of the daily Armenian-language broadcasts of RFE/RL.

By contrast, all major Armenian TV and radio stations loyal to the
authorities remain on air. Their news coverage has been reduced to
presentation of government press releases and police reports.

"We're alarmed by this blatant attempt to censor news of the disputed
election," Joel Simon, executive director of the Committee to Protect
Journalists, said in a statement. "We call on Armenian authorities
to withdraw the ban on independent newsgathering and dissemination,
and restore access to independent and opposition media."

Also expressing concern was another New York-based watchdog, Freedom
House. Paula Schriefer, Freedom House's director of advocacy, said
the state of emergency is "excessive and unnecessary" and should be
lifted "as soon as possible."

A similar call was made on Monday by a senior diplomat representing the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Heikki Talvitie
also said both the Armenian authorities and the opposition are to
blame for the deadly clashes in Yerevan.

"It is the responsibility of both the government and the opposition to
make sure that the society draws the right lessons from this situation,
that it emerges stronger from this serious test of democracy and that
it does not emerge as a more divided nation," agreed Semneby.

The EU envoy also called for an "independent investigation" in
Saturday's events but would not say who he thinks might conduct such
an inquiry.

DEADLY FIGHTING REPORTED IN KARABAKH
Radio Liberty
March 4 2008
Czech Republic

Armenia and Azerbaijan reported on Tuesday fierce fighting between
their forces stationed northeast of Nagorno-Karabakh, blaming each
other for what appears to be the most serious ceasefire violation
in months.

News reports from Baku said at least two Azerbaijani soldiers were
killed in the clashes. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry declined to
confirm or deny the information.

The Armenian side said fighting broke out there early in the morning
when Azerbaijani troops attacked and temporarily capture a Karabakh
Armenian army outpost in the area. According to Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian, Armenian forces went on a counteroffensive and recaptured
the position in the afternoon after the Azerbaijanis refused to
pull back.

"As of now, that position is under our control and the enemy has
fled leaving many corpses behind," Sarkisian told journalists in
the evening.

The Defense Ministry in Yerevan issued a similar statement earlier
in the day, saying that Karabakh Armenian soldiers killed several
Azerbaijani servicemen and suffered no casualties.

The Azerbaijani military came up with a diametrically opposite
version of events, accusing the Armenians of attacking its positions
north-east of Karabakh's Mardakert district. "The Azerbaijani army
is giving the Armenians a worthy response and we are fully capable of
defending the independence of our country," the army chief of staff,
Lieutenant-General Nejmeddin Sadygov, said, according to the Day.az
news services.

Both Sadygov and a spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry,
Khazar Ibrahim, linked the fighting with the post-election tensions
in Armenia. "This is a clear provocation by Armenia," Ibrahim told
RFE/RL. "They are trying to use the situation which is taking place
in Yerevan after the elections and are trying to divert the attention
of their citizens and population from the internal and domestic issues
in order to seek an external enemy."

But according to Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, it is
Baku which is striking at a moment when Yerevan is particularly
vulnerable. "We condemn this challenge, and we think that this is an
attempt by the Azerbaijani side to exploit the current situation in
Armenia," Oskanian said. "Perhaps they thought we had focused all of
our attention on our internal situation, and that this could provide
them with a psychological advantage, but this hasn't proved the case."

ARMENIA'S POLITICAL TURMOIL COULD THREATEN ITS POSITIVE RATING OUTLOOK - FITCH
Forbes
March 4 2008
NY

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Fitch Ratings said the recent
political turmoil in Armenia could threaten the positive outlook
on the sovereign's long-term issuer default ratings (IDR) of 'BB-',
if unrest were to persist or intensify.

'The political unrest witnessed in Armenia over the past fortnight
need not de-rail the country's improving economic fundamentals,'
said Andrew Colquhoun, director in Fitch's Sovereigns group.

'However, if the situation were to escalate or persist then it could
risk damaging domestic and international confidence, and undermining
the authorities' focus on sound economic policy management,'
Colquhoun added.

Incumbent prime minister Serzh Sarkisian won a presidential election
on Feb 19 with 53 pct votes, against 22 pct for second-placed Levon
Ter-Petrosian. International observers broadly endorsed the vote, while
noting some shortcomings. This sparked protests by Ter-Petrosian's
supporters, which were later quelled by security forces.

Armenia's constitutional court is set to rule on complaints against
the handling of the elections in the next few days and if the court
upholds the results, adding to the qualified endorsement of the
international community, there is a risk the opposition could resort
to extra-legal action, Fitch noted.

An escalation of violence would be strongly negative for Armenia's
basic political stability and sovereign ratings, it said.

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