An orange revolution scenario in Armenia: final countdown
Andrei ARESHEV
An orange revolution scenario in Armenia: final countdown
On Saturday evening, March 1, on the eve of presidential election in Russia, Armenia’s Yerevan witnessed the mount of tension after the February 19 presidential election, when the country’s opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian lost to Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. The climax of political crisis in Armenia, Russia’s strategic ally in Transcaucasus region, will by all means have serious consequences both for Armenia and Russian foreign policy in the region. Mass riots took place in Yerevan on 1-2 March, when “peace marchers” destroyed everything they found on their way and attacked the police officers. The crowd of protesters gathered near the city administration building at night. They set a few cars on fire, including some police cars, and destroyed a few bookstalls and “The Moscow House” shop built in 2007. As a result of clashes between the police and the opposition, 8 officers received bullet wounds and were taken to a hospital, some of them in critical condition. Witnesses reported all rioters were young.
There was a moment when the authorities let the situation go out of control. Thus, Armenia’s President Robert Kocharian had to declare a state of emergency Saturday night, which, he said, could last until March 20. The decree was later approved at the parliament’s extraordinary session. It was decided that troops and armored vehicles would patrol the streets to bring order to the city.
On Saturday morning the police dispersed an unofficial rally of the members of radical opposition who gathered on the Opera (or Freedom) Square after the February 19 presidential election. Two weeks before the election, the opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian announced he would not recognize any other results of the election except his victory over Sarkisian.
An “open-ended” rally in Yerevan and the “orange revolution” in Kiev in 2004 look very much alike with its loud music, tents, chants, mobile ring tones, mentally unbalanced public speakers and other traditional for such kind of “revolutions” methods, including Levon Ter-Petrosian`s “Satanic dance”. It is remarkable that many of the “defenders of democracy”, who had traveled from the nearby districts specially for taking part in the riots, were very aggressive towards anyone who did not share their views. The “messiah” Ter-Petrosian even called Sarkisian supporters “the dregs of society”. As their hopes to split the authorities, and- first of all- the defense and law enforcement agencies- became weaker, some of the rioters attempted to distribute drugs among the people. A group of armed people called on the opposition members to seize control over Yerevan`s key objects, including the TV tower.
The Armenian authorities should be praised for being reserved enough to avert clashes between the civilians, especially in view of the 20th anniversary of the Sumgait Uprising (Michael Saakashvili suppressed a more peaceful rally of the opposition in a shorter period of time and by using even tougher methods). However, the rally could not last forever as the crowd of aggressive people would have certainly affected the work of civil and state institutions. On March 1 the rioters were ousted from the Opera Square. They moved towards the French Embassy and then divided into several groups not to let the police approach closer and started raising barricades in the center of Yerevan. The organizers of the riots found shelter behind the backs of women and children. Some of the drunken protesters had bottles of benzene, stones and guns. “The worst thing is that they start shooting when dozens of unarmed people could be injured. A gunman suddenly appears, makes a few shots and then hides again. The police cannot return fire as innocent people can be wounded. It seems that the rioters deliberately started shooting to cause numerous victims”- Robert Kocharian said. To bring order to the city the authorities asked the army to patrol the streets in Yerevan.
Experts had long been talking about an orange revolution scenario in Armenia. Now the moment has come. Of course, Armenia lived through harder times, but the current situation may cause a serious confrontation between the Armenian people. Turkey and Azerbaijan are keeping a close eye on the tensions in Yerevan. It seems that the outgoing President Robert Kocharian and his handpicked successor Sarkisian would manage to resume control over the situation. However, the country’s international prestige was shattered. And that was the main task of the opposition forces. Ter-Petrosian and his allies relied on the support from the West- the method widely used in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.
These “western missions” have already demonstrated their interest in the recent uprising in Armenia. On March 1 some ambassadors from the EU, the OSCE and the UN held talks at the German Embassy with the opposition activists. After the meeting, street riots in Yerevan only mounted. The European delegates made a few cynical statements as they condemned the Armenian police and the authorities for the lack of “humane attitude” towards the protesters. The west has again demonstrated its adherence to a double standard policy. At first, the observers praised the February 19 voting but now they think it is the right time to change their views and accuse the government of vote fraud. “We must be ready to become even more critical if it is demanded by our (U.S-Aresehev) national interests,- a former co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, Special Negotiator for the Nagorno-Karabakh and Eurasian Conflicts, Steven Mann, used to say. –We have already taken some measures to escalate chaos in the countries where we would like to see democratic regimes and market reforms, and we also provide financial support for the development of private mass media sector”.
“Measures to escalate chaos” in Armenia, which were taken exactly ahead of the presidential election in Russia, mean nothing but an attempt to break off Yerevan`s political and military cooperation with Moscow. As a result of these western geopolitical games, Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region may face very serious threats.
Of course, it is too early to make a through analysis of the recent protests in Yerevan but some conclusions can be easily drawn already.
1) The authorities need wide support from the population and should act in advance. “Levon Ter-Petrosian and his supporters were very upset to know that all candidates for presidency accepted Sarkisian`s proposal of cooperation”, Robert Kocharian said. Indeed, after the Republican Party, “The Prosperous Armenia” and the “Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) Party reached a coalition agreement, the opposition had no chances to legally carry out their policies. But they had to work off the sponsorship money. In the long run, Ter-Petrosian called on his supporters to end riots for a while, until the state of emergency expires on March 20. But it is very likely that at the end of March Levon and his supporters will continue their protest campaign, stirring up separatist sentiments among the Armenians.
2) The presidential decree on the state of emergency in Yerevan says that the supporters of Ter-Petrosian, being unable to recognize the defeat, undertook illegal steps, including the delivery of arms and explosives to the places of mass gathering, and organized unlawful meetings and marches. The authorities are obliged to nip such activities in the bud despite any statements made by various non-governmental organisation or international observers. When a member of a foreign diplomatic mission, its headquarters in the country of residence looking more like a fortress, summons the officers of the law enforcement agencies to rebuke them, such country will no longer be treated as a sovereign state. Sooner of later, Armenia’s defence and law enforcement agencies will be forced to hand power to these “orange plunderers”.
3) In the world ruled by a “global hegemon”, any state needs clear-cut landmarks to carry out successful foreign policy. A well-conceived state ideology would also be a plus. Once Levon Ter-Petrosian was the first to say the country could easily do without national ideology. He imposed a set of “human liberal values” on the society, and, amid the ongoing political confrontation, Armenia took a path of destruction. The situation serves the purposes of criminals and instigators. If, after suppressing the riots, the Armenian authorities continue to lull people into a sense of stability and security by reporting annual economic growth, the recent “orange” campaigns in Yerevan could mark the decline of the Armenian statehood.
Azerbaijan Tries to Exploit Armenia’s
Internal Turmoil by Military Aggression
By APPO JABARIAN
Executive Publisher/Managing Editor
USA ARMENIAN LIFE Magazine
The post election period in Armenia ushered in two major developments:
- The mass rallies of Feb. 19-29 and the subsequent mass disorders of March 1 causing internal turmoil;
- Azerbaijan’s March 3 military aggressions against the Armenian defense forces stationed on the Artsakh (Nagorno Karabagh) border in a clear violation of the internationally brokered cease-fire agreement with Armenia.
Armenia held its fiercely fought presidential elections on February 19. Even though notable international observers such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) gave them a passing mark, a segment of Armenia’s opposition contested the final results. That segment’s leaders, spearheaded by Armenia’s first president Levon Ter-Petrossyan, took to the streets of Yerevan. Initially, the Ter-Petrossyan flank held mostly peaceful rallies for several days. Although the rallies had not been authorized, the current government initially tolerated them. With the passing of ten consecutive days of rallies, came the final order by the Armenian authorities to discontinue such unauthorized mass gatherings. The great majority of the protesters peacefully complied. But a sizeable circle of participants defied the authorities by resorting to organized violence.
Basing his statement on ample evidence, the Attorney General of the Republic of Armenia Aghvan Hovsepian stated on March 4: "All of the March 1 illegal activities illustrated the fact that they were managed from one center. That has become obvious through the gathered evidence. There is testimony that one thing has been said from the rally podium, but internally, the elements were told ‘we must confiscate power no matter what the cost is.’ According to Hovsepian, individuals were recruited who are now testifying that they were instructed to loot. Promises were given that the participants were going to receive shops in Yerevan. Several others were promised ministerial positions in the government.
Hovsepian has noted that during the course of the massive disorder, 8 individuals were killed, 48 civilians and 117 peace officers were injured. 63 automobiles were burned, 7 shops were vandalized and looted. 1055 lethal pieces of sharp metals were hauled from the scene of the disorder among other weapons.
Referring to the neo-Cons in Washington and elsewhere, Lisa Karpova wrote in a March 3 article in Pravda: "Perhaps the empire just doesn’t get it. They need to re-examine their despicable, foolish and devious scheme to bring an orange scenario to an embattled, besieged Armenia. Under blockade by neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia continues to prosper despite some instances of corruption and economic isolation. Armenia is not fertile ground for any sort of orange scenario. Armenians are generally politically astute, pro-Russian and not easily swayed. They are also acutely aware of the fact that there is no future for them as vassals of the empire."
Speaking of the belligerent segment of the opposition, Karpova quoted the Armenian Parliament Speaker Tigran Torosian as saying: "These people decided who the winner is five minutes after the election. This is their characteristic feature. I learned about my alleged resignation from journalists. Levon Ter-Petrossyan and his teammates have exhausted the sources of lies, which exceed all possible borders. They spread lies about all and offend all those who are not with them. They are filled with hatred and revenge."
As Armenia struggled to bring stability, Azerbaijan exploited the internal turmoil by launching a major military attack and occupied an important Armenian position. When international negotiations failed to convince Azerbaijan to recede, the Armenian defense forces counter-attacked and liberated that position.
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian accused Baku of "striking at a moment when Yerevan is particularly vulnerable with the state of emergency in place, since government troops and police forcibly dispersed opposition protesters in clashes on March 1 that left at least eight people dead. We condemn this challenge, and we think that this is an attempt by the Azerbaijani side to exploit the current situation in Armenia," Oskanian said. "Perhaps they thought we had focused all of our attention on our internal situation, and that this could provide them with a psychological advantage, but this hasn’t proved the case."
Armenia should lodge formal complaints against Azerbaijan at the United Nations and the European Union. She should also mount worldwide condemnation of Azerbaijan’s breach of the 1994 cease-fire agreement with Armenia and hold Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev accountable for warmongering.
The elements that attempt to attain "power at all cost" should refrain from becoming accessory to further destabilization of the Caucasus by way of undermining Armenia’s own stability.
Rather than fostering a spirit of cooperation between the East and West, the so-called Armenian "Orange Agents" may be attempting to thrive on awakening or further developing the worst instincts in the West, mainly the neo-Cons in Washington, toward the East, mainly Russia.
Today’s international political climate is already tense because of the wrong war in Iraq. The international community can be better off without an additional deadly conflict, and without another country – Armenia -- in Caucasus being subjected to the so-called "Orange Revolution."
Commentary: To build an enduring democratic state
* A perspective on the presidential election from inside Armenia
by Fr. Ktrij Devejian
YEREVAN - Since Tuesday's presidential elections in Armenia, I have
received a number of well-intentioned e-mails from diasporan Armenians
who have strong opinions about the outcome, and the methods with which
that outcome was reached. Many of these authors have used language
bordering on the hysterical and offensive to characterize the current
situation in Armenia. Some state that they have received their
information from sources within Armenia, including a number of
"opposition" websites.
Well, since I am actually in Armenia, I would like to explain a few
things which may not occur to those who don't live here. And as a
resident of this country for the past seven years, I think I have
earned the right to make certain observations and criticisms emanating
>From personal experiences.
Armenia is not the United States. Therefore, there is no accepted
tradition or institutional culture when it comes to many political
activities to which Americans are accustomed. Democracy and democratic
principles in Armenia are developing and progressing. It may not be
happening at a pace that is acceptable to many; nevertheless, it is
happening. Notwithstanding the pace, however, each and every Armenian,
whether in Armenia or in the diaspora, has a solemn responsibility to
support and encourage the maintenance, strength and endurance of our
statehood.
Stability for our state is a high priority, one that may be
difficult to comprehend for anyone or any people who, having enjoyed
free and independent statehood for centuries, thus take it for
granted. In the U.S., we accept America as no longer an experiment -
it is a fait accompli. By contrast, Armenia is at a crossroads, and
our very survival is at stake. Turkey continues its illegal blockade
of Armenia and refuses to establish diplomatic ties with us. We are
still technically at war, and although the cease-fire with Azerbaijan
has held for more than 10 years, it is still a fragile and tenuous
one. The threat of resuming hostilities and aggression by the Azeris
is one that we live with every day, and has been one of the reasons, I
believe, that unlike Georgia, Ukraine, and other former Soviet
countries, Armenia has persevered and remained free of major civic
unrest in recent years. We understand that unity is our weapon and our
strength. And although internally we may have sharp disagreements and
heated political arguments, Armenians know well that at the end of the
day, no one, no nation, no country and no international organization
can be relied upon to save us this time from complete annihilation. I
am sure many of you would agree.
It is true, the elections were not flawless. Deficiencies of all
sorts were observed and are an unfortunate reality. However, the
constitution of the Republic of Armenia worked: scheduled elections
did take place, and a president who is term-limited is willingly
stepping aside and giving up the power entrusted to him by the people.
This may no longer be a revolutionary concept in California,
Massachusetts, or Illinois, but for the former Soviet Union, it's an
important, if symbolic, step. (For those who need further info, see
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, etc.)
Furthermore, international observers from the United States, Europe
and Russia were present before and during the election to monitor the
campaign atmosphere and balloting. They issued an 11-page report on
the day following the elections. You can read it here:
www.osce.org/
The report is available in English and Armenian, and was prepared by
the OSCE/ODIHR monitoring mission. The report is critical in some
areas, and offers praise in others, which was to be expected. In a
nutshell, the monitors presented their findings, stating that the 2008
presidential elections were "mostly in line with international
commitments.
This is not an apologia. We all want
wait for the day when elections in Armenia are completely fair and
transparent. And that day will come when our citizens fully become
aware of their rights and responsibilities, and when the western
"culture" of elections, voting, campaigning and political platforms
become better integrated into Armenian society.
But just because that day is not here yet, does not mean that we
throw up our arms, give up on democracy and think it merely an
experiment gone bad. It has been said that democracy is a very bad
form of government - it's just much better than anything else that's
been tried in history. It would be hard to find anyone today, whether
the authorities of Armenia or the opposition, who would seriously
argue that abandoning our republican form of government because we
haven't yet perfected it, is a logical or preferred path to follow.
We must therefore take great care before making frantic accusations,
for they are heard by us as well as our adversaries. The mental
laziness of giving in to wild conspiracies does not serve the
long-term endurance of Armenia or the diaspora. For the first time in
more than 600 years, Armenia is free and independent, and we are
therefore obligated to place our national interests ahead of our
personal gains or aspirations.
* * *
Fr. Ktrij Devejian is the foreign press secretary of the Catholicate
of All Armenians, at the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin. Born and
educated in the United States, Fr. Devejian has lived in Armenia for
the past seven years.
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